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busdaddy Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:58 pm

Interesting to sit back and watch the goings on in the UK and the resulting drop in the GB pound as well as the ripple effect on global funds and stocks. Now many financial institutions and tech corporations are planning a move to Ireland or another non UK country as a result, many thousands of well paying jobs relocated or gone overnight or real soon.

We all know the UK has been driving bus prices for the last 10 years, those well paid young white collar hipster workers all want a well sorted campervan with a chequered floor for thier weekend holidays. Will this slow the market?, or at least correct it?, or will the trend continue unabated?

Thoughts?

Xevin Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:05 pm

BD. I think it will be a "correction" in the market. But after the dust settles. Boom. Who knows. Maybe the Dutch, Swedes, and French become the dominate player in Europe. UK has been a economic player in the world for 100s of years. Even after they relinquished of all those colonies/commonwealth states over the past century , they still remain a top 5 economy. Not to shabby for an island.
Maybe the time is right to buy back those rust free West Coast buses :lol:

Volktales Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:37 pm

Interesting times ahead for the United Kingdom. From an outsider's perspective, it seems somewhat unreal for this to have even happened. I can see a lot of "toys" coming up for sale if their economy does go into the "loo"...

chabanais Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:41 pm

Only a small percentage of Brits buy Buses I don't think things will change much.

SGKent Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:25 pm

I mentioned it in this thread earlier today. Will be interesting.


http://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2...p;start=40

Manfred58sc Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:32 pm

Don't assume this separation will have long term negative effects. Social restructuring can open up tremendous opportunity. The Bus's will still hold a special place in the market. I doubt it will affect this niche market. Cheap, imported products and services will be hurt by this move. This is the oldest industrialized economy in the world, I would not count it out.

Alan Brase Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:51 am

Manfred58sc wrote: Don't assume this separation will have long term negative effects. Social restructuring can open up tremendous opportunity. The Bus's will still hold a special place in the market. I doubt it will affect this niche market. Cheap, imported products and services will be hurt by this move. This is the oldest industrialized economy in the world, I would not count it out.
You might be right. My first thought was that the pound will plummet, the middle class will get squeezed and all the demand will dry up for elderly German cars.
I've been In England in 1994 and 2007. I was left with feeling like I was very small compared to all the wealth these people have. Like driving around in Beverly hills, rodeo drive. Especially on weekends there are just so many wealthy people on the road. Big new Bimmers and Amgs and Bentleys everywhere. Speed limit on the M25 is 70 I think. Driving at night at 110 in the middle lane some cars would come by at a LOT faster, over 150, AT NIGHT. WHAT DOES IT COST TO DRIVE THAT FAST? And we were paying like $7 a gallon.
This London Orbital Road M25 at one point near Heathrow had a traffic count of 147,000 per day.
That's a staggering amount of money coming in the opposing lane.
They are so frigging wealthy it is mind boggling.
It's probably the working blokes that buy our cars and drive up the prices. Any down turn will hurt them more than the rich people., but still, I don't look for it to much affect the market values here.
Al

rsbadura Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:02 am

Hello.

The Bexit excitement of this week will drop over the time - the Brexit could take 2 years (defined by exit laws).
And nobody of the European want to isolate the UK as in some horror scenarios.
The youth of the UK and the north of UK vote to stay in the EU - times will changing... :wink:

busdaddy wrote: We all know the UK has been driving bus prices for the last 10 years, ...
A lot of US bays are reimported to Germany as well - sometimes it looks like the half of the current German bays are reimported from the US :wink:

But the bay window run started later after the first hype in the UK.

Regards,

Abscate Sat Jun 25, 2016 3:50 am

The net effect of this in 5 years is the UK will slink back into the EU and lose the pound. Youth will prevail. I'm not even sure a government that will exit can get elected. Impact on bus prices will be roughly the same as Indian butterfly wing motion

Alan Brase Sat Jun 25, 2016 5:00 am

Abscate wrote: The net effect of this in 5 years is the UK will slink back into the EU and lose the pound. Youth will prevail. I'm not even sure a government that will exit can get elected. Impact on bus prices will be roughly the same as Indian butterfly wing motion
Either that or something else.
SERIOUSLY, though folks. Hasn't the bubble already burst? It seems to me the high end 23's and 21's seem to linger on the lists for months. Some nicer, cheaper $2-5000 bays seem to get snapped up quickly, but it seems the higher end buyers are fewer.
I look at Vanagon prices and the high end ones just stagger me. $20-60k for a late Westy? Really? I'm driving a not too bad 1987 Wolfie Westy I bought for $300 in 2007 with a bad motor. It's my daily driver for years, but the idea of paying over $10k for such a car boggles my mind. I know some high priced ones have Go Westy motors but how reliable are they? They cost a lot for sure.
I just don't really see a lot of buyers out there looking for old buses at higher prices.
Al

DougB Sat Jun 25, 2016 6:48 am

Could be a good time to order a SpaceRoof if you've been considering one (we love ours). The better exchange rate could help a bit.

- Doug

SGKent Sat Jun 25, 2016 8:43 am

69doublecab wrote: Abscate wrote: The net effect of this in 5 years is the UK will slink back into the EU and lose the pound. Youth will prevail. I'm not even sure a government that will exit can get elected. Impact on bus prices will be roughly the same as Indian butterfly wing motion
Either that or something else.
SERIOUSLY, though folks. Hasn't the bubble already burst? It seems to me the high end 23's and 21's seem to linger on the lists for months. Some nicer, cheaper $2-5000 bays seem to get snapped up quickly, but it seems the higher end buyers are fewer.
I look at Vanagon prices and the high end ones just stagger me. $20-60k for a late Westy? Really? I'm driving a not too bad 1987 Wolfie Westy I bought for $300 in 2007 with a bad motor. It's my daily driver for years, but the idea of paying over $10k for such a car boggles my mind. I know some high priced ones have Go Westy motors but how reliable are they? They cost a lot for sure.
I just don't really see a lot of buyers out there looking for old buses at higher prices.
Al

Several folks have contacted me who have purchased in the $25K USD range and they still have work to do. The problem with the $2000 - $5000 range is those are wet dreams. It is like the I'll find a frog, kiss it and it will turn into a prince or princess. Someone buys the $3500 piece of crap which is minus an engine and full of rust. When they are done they either have $25,000 USD in it or it is 300 pounds heavier with all the bondo on it, and the engine and trans is out of a wrecked bug and on their last legs. You get what you pay for. My thoughts on Brexit are that time will tell. I don't see globalism surviving this cycle much longer because:

Citizens in countries cannot control who comes and goes, and what damage they leave. If you live in a small town in the middle east you may get your throat cut in a mass beheading. If you frequent a dance club some idiot with a gun may kill your friends who were just dancing. You may wake up and find your bus in a container headed for Asia. If you invent something great and patent it you may see a clone of it stamped made in China and your attorney will tell you that the US Gov't can't touch China. If you get bitten by a bug it may carry a disease from a 3rd world country brought here by someone who isn't supposed to be here. Your job may be gone tomorrow as you are replaced by someone who doesn't even speak English. Tomorrow your bank may tell you that someone in Russia hacked your bank account and passed the number to someone in Missouri who speaks an Eastern European and who forged your driver's license too. Your attorney tells you it will cost more than you have left in your pockets to stop all the collection calls generated by the bounced checks they also wrote in your name. The list goes on and people want to control their lives. Dr. Lester Thurow indicated in one of his last economic books 10 years ago that we have tried globalism for thousands of years and each time we fail for the reasons above. Too much change too fast and people walk away from it. Brexit will affect bus prices but only time will tell how. The day of the $4000 barn find that just needs to be dusted off and fuel added is long gone my friends. In fact it may never have been. I sold my 1971 with 400,000 miles on it in like new condition back in 1983 for $4300. That buyer looked almost for a year in the Los Angeles area to find a bus as clean as mine. No one who correctly restores a bus these days will part with it for less that around $15K to $20K unless they are in very dire straits. Restored buses are too rare these days. Think about it - other than people you know from here, how often does a bus pass you a week compared to say an Accord? I am guessing there are maybe 30 - 35 bays in the Sacramento Valley area. That is in a population of maybe 2 1/2 million people.

chabanais Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:48 am

It will be a good time for me to buy more stuff from Custom and Commercial as the dollar will be stronger against theirs so that's a good thing.

Less centralized control is a good thing, IMO. I was in Europe when Maastricht was approved and I thought it was a bad idea. Now, those same people who voted yes then voted no now.

I guess that whole "wisdom and age" thing has some truth to it.

Japan and Holland is still a big market for Buses so I expect any slack to be taken up by them.

Tom Powell Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:53 am

Now is the time to buy a peg and rebuild the early bay steering box.

http://www.alanhschofield.com/ourparts/prod_2850482-Steering-peg-211415223B.html

Aloha
tp

SamboSamba22 Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:01 am

The wealthy will always have wealth to pay with, whether or not they in the UK keep their interest in classic VW production, time will tell the tale.
The Brexit situation is of political and institutional agenda business maneuvers, where as businesses can continue to profit with substantial margins, lower operational costs, and continue to fuel the manufacturing loop of greed. Business in our western countries have long seen the day of healthy and morally correct practices. There are only a few business who stand by such grounds, and for instance our various VW vendors in the UK, well all we can do as a global market is continue to give the lads our business, and help to contribute to keep the market alive within our VW community.
Again, as mentioned, the UK will be back in the EU in some facaded reason, and large business will indeed, benefit the most out of it. It is of similar practices as seen in the US in ’08 by banks/car manufacturers/investment businesses, etc..
A different political and “voted” move, but the same outcome nonetheless
Sam

gondiwindi Sun Jun 26, 2016 12:48 pm

There is an election coming up in the US. Watch and learn from the situation in the UK as to what happens when the general population doesn't understand the complexities of how to run a country and narrows down a collection of major issues to a yes/ no type vote.

Stupid Brits made a massive change on a 52/48 vote leaving half of the country unhappy. I can see a general desire to not make large purchases with this uncertainty now being forced upon the UK.

Lesson learned = Get your butts out and vote and when you do, Be sure to understand all of the issues fully before ticking a box. Good luck.

HarryFD Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:02 pm

As it always seems. The sheeple listen to the talking heads and think the sky is falling. No one knows the long term impact but I am certain, while it may be different than previously expected, cooler heads will prevail and this will turn out ok.

Just remember that many who are pronouncing the sky is falling have a personal interest in getting people to churn their investments.

SGKent Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:33 pm

HarryFD wrote: As it always seems. The sheeple listen to the talking heads and think the sky is falling. No one knows the long term impact but I am certain, while it may be different than previously expected, cooler heads will prevail and this will turn out ok.

Just remember that many who are pronouncing the sky is falling have a personal interest in getting people to churn their investments.

so far the only people I've heard saying the sky is falling are a few people that don't want it to happen. That doesn't mean you can put on your Susie Sunshine face and pretend there will be no effect.The Sterling has fallen against the USD and if you need parts from the UK now is a good time to consider placing an order.

Manfred58sc Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:37 pm

Assuming that the Brits were mislead and labeling them unkindly is unfair. I have been there recently and totally understand the issues they have. Luckily they got to vote on it and now they move forward, just like every other country that has a representative form of government. Its not like they voted to stop buying gas and VW's. Respect their process and help them enjoy the VW hobby..

Rubber Duck Sun Jun 26, 2016 3:25 pm

Well, voter turnout was really good. On an issue as monumental as this, I believe the percentages are accurate. There'll be pain, but I think they voted the right way. I tend to think when big business and govt pulls out all the scare rhetoric, the proper direction to run is the other way.

As for how it will affect bus prices, I believe that like the pound, a drop, if any, will likely only be temporary as the true value of the item is enduring and not fleeting.



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