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What's going to kill our cars...
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swhitcomb
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 9:19 pm    Post subject: Re: What's going to kill our cars... Reply with quote

This is a 4 year old thread but it's really been something I've been thinking a lot about lately. In a few weeks I'll be 40 my Karmann Ghia has been in my family since my first childhood memories. In fact, one of my first memories is my dad driving it home from Bob Smith VW in 1980. It's always been around, it's always run, and because it's sentimental to me I've always bought the best whatever part it needed. In the last few years, engine cases are NLA, heads are NLA, they stopped making the 034, Bosch discontinued all tune up parts, good cranks are NLA, etc. I'm afraid a day will came where my beloved Ghia won't be able to be repaired because whatever parts it needs either won't exist, or won't be worth buying.
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Zylinderkopf
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 4:09 am    Post subject: Re: What's going to kill our cars... Reply with quote

I'm still optimistic that parts will get better as 3D printing technology continues to evolve.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:57 am    Post subject: Re: What's going to kill our cars... Reply with quote

You could start considering what parts you will need down the road, and keep an eye out and stockpile them. Lots of oem parts flow thru THE SAMBA, and other collector websites. The worst that could happen is that over the years you won't need them, but someone else will, and I doubt at that point you will lose any money. As parts/cars of every make and model get rarer, they seem to gain value. Think of it as an investment, that's what I do.
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TDCTDI
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:34 am    Post subject: Re: What's going to kill our cars... Reply with quote

Some shithead paying more attention to their cellphone or infotainment system in their new car while choking down a Big Mac with a large Diet Coke.
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raygreenwood
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:41 am    Post subject: Re: What's going to kill our cars... Reply with quote

Zylinderkopf wrote:
I'm still optimistic that parts will get better as 3D printing technology continues to evolve.


Its possible....but only for certain types of parts. I work in the fringes of the 3D printing industry. Most of what people think its capable of ......is far from the truth. What it will become capable of.....is also farther from what people imagine.

Metal parts.....like engine parts and body parts......actually has some useable technology around it.....but just will not happen. The machines that do powder metal and EDM welding build up for sizeable parts......are massive and expensive....and not practical for hobbyiest metal.

3D printing for plastics parts......can actually make a stronger part in certain plastics with proper design of parts in the design stage due to layering/grain lamination.....but that is a lot of cost and is only doable at reasonable speed on large industrial printers $$$$$.....and not all plastic types are doable....and may not be any time soon....including many automotive grade plastics. Using different plastics makes for a shorter lifespan, different hit/cold fit and expansion etc.

However....the 3D printing industry is an absolute BOON to the small, limited run injection molding industry for making limited run prototypes and even short run molds......for those parts that have enough market pull to be made......so you will see some improvement in parts availability due to 3D printing.....made with correct plastics and internal structure.

Rubber parts like door and windshield seals with 3D printing?.....not going to happen anytime soon. If you have a large enough industrial 3D printer and can pay for the time.....it can make the prototype to cast the molds required to make rubber parts like that.....but....after casting.....those molds take lots of hand work to create the mirror polish mold surface required to pressure or injection mold the types of rubber required for those parts. That is $$$$$$. This is not simple casting for EPDM, EPR or Viton rubber. Also those rubber types need to be heat cured/de-gassed in batch ovens. This is not a simple or DIY.

The issues with rubber parts quality.....is not a simple issue. I have been doing works for several very large OEM parts suppliers over the past 3 years. You get these companies parts in virtually every new car made....and also in every FLAPS in the world.
Everything from gasket sets....to seals....to ball joints, water pumps etc.

The quality issues with rubber and some plastics started in about 1999. There was a small world shortage in several ingredients of high quality rubber.....most notably butadiene. This initial shortage can be traced to the exponential expansion in the use of nylons in everything from cars to computers and products of every type. It was manageable in the late 90s.

Then comes the recession. The big three....and most notably GM.....going bankrupt....divested themselves of many tier 3 suppliers. Several of these.....were chemical
suppliers that over the years.....had a client list that was almost exclusively plastics and rubbers. One of these at least....produced a large proportion of the world butadiene supply.

These companies went bankrupt without GM and with cutbacks worldwide. Now you have a real shortage.
There are other ways to make engineering rubbers like viton without as much butadiene or with much less. A lot of the Chinese companies were already doing this since butadiene is expensive. The problem with these rubber compounds is that they have less UV, solvent and alcohol resistancy and ozone resistancy. See where this has gone?

This is one of the primary reasons virtually all automotive OEMs have gone to nylon fuel lines. They have no issues with fuels of pressure and require much less butadiene to produce and are much cheaper.

In the past 6 years there has been major ramp ups worldwide in butadiene production and also on nylon production/synthesis plants. Nylons are also heavily used in non-woven insulating materials, fabrics etc. Nylons are all over the place in cars now. Huge industry.

One thing i noticed over the past 10 years until now is that the rubber parts quality that you get on NEW cars.....is indeed top notch. I have had a few conversations with some of the guys I have worked with at these large automotive parts manufacturers. What they daid.....makes total sense.

In short.....the auto manufacturers.....when they are building a car or a series of cars.....order rubber parts to fit....by the trainload. When you cut contracts for millikns of parts....enough to build say.....a two year production run and 5-7 years of stock dealer replacement parts.....you can order the very best quality. The economy of scale makes it cheap to be sure that anything you put on your cars will NOT die before the warranty period expires....get it? Wink

However.....after the original parts supply dries up...and if that part is not used in any newer vehicles and is not still being ordered in massive quantities........the parts chain may still be ordering parts from the same parts manufacturers......but in much smaller quantities....and the suppliers are no longer under contract to produce the same quality level.....so newer replacement parts are made with cheaper materials to keep the prices down.

The real problem is the buyer.....you...me....us. When a car is past its 10 year parts supply warranty.......getting OEM quality parts ...SHOULD be more expensive....if you want original quality level. Shorter runs, mold rebuilding and service and quality materials for batches of less than say 20,000 at a time.....should be more expensive.
Even back in the 80s.....owning a car that was 12 years old.....going to the dealer for a tail light assembly......had a high price. Your choices were the dealer with original quality 2nd run parts......or the junk yard.
There was nothing in between. There are actually more parts for old cars available at FLAPS and discount parts houses than there ever have been for old cars......the problem is that they are "repops"....and rarely made in original molds with OEM quality materials......or else you could not afford them. Or more precisely......you would not be willing to afford them.

Sorry for the length. Ray
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Jon Schmid
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:47 am    Post subject: Re: What's going to kill our cars... Reply with quote

Being kind of a cousin to you guys my biggest fear in the next 10-20 years is finding someone qualified to do major work on my 356's. Right now the closest qualified mechanic to me (and I'm smack dab in the middle of the L.A. basin) is 40 miles away. Everyone else has either moved or retired (or worse). And even my current guy is not likely going to be doing this another 20 years. You VW guys might have more options but unless a new generation of folks learn the skills to properly build/rebuild engines and transaxles then we convert to electric or park them? I hope I'm not here to see that day. Sad
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:11 am    Post subject: Re: What's going to kill our cars... Reply with quote

I agree with the other poster who stated that distracted drivers will be a bigger risk of taking our classic VW's off the road then parts shortages. I also think our risk of a heart attack or getting cancer is higher than worrying about parts availability.

I've actually been impressed with the large amount of parts that are being reproduced in the last 5-10 years. Yes, many are crap in quality and fit but others are still decent. The problem is many people don't want to pay the costs of the premium parts.

I hate to say it but one of the biggest factors limiting better quality reproduction parts is VW folks being frugal. People are keeping EMPI in business by buying some of there really poor quality parts based on their price point. I'm hopeful that as VW's continue to decline in numbers and become even more collectable that we'll see more people willing to pony up for the better quality parts. This will stimulate more being made. We all know VW's were an entry level car and many of the owners still believe VW's and their parts should be cheap to buy.

I think we're decades away from all the NOS parts drying up as well. Yes, some NOS parts are getting tougher and tougher to source but they are still a lot of those parts out there. There's still TON's of used VW parts around as well that can be rebuilt/overhauled to like new status and put back in use too.

I think if I owned the less produced and less popular air cooled VW models, I would be sourcing the hard to find wear items right now. Also important to note is the MASSIVE difference in EBAY and Samba classified pricing vs. finding them at VW swap meets. I often see threads on this site where people can't find this part or that part. I then attend a VW swap meet and see many of them for rock bottom pricing.

The basic type 1 engine platform will have parts available for decades to come in IMHO. There's still millions of these engines powering air cooled VW's all over the world. The type 4 engines and their fuel injection parts are not being as reproduced and some Bosch fuel injection parts are now NLA. The late bay bus crowd has been discussing this for the last few years.

I'm an aviation geek as well with lots of interest in World War II and 50's propeller aircraft. The fact that many of those 70+ year old aircraft are being rebuilt to better than new condition speaks of the volume of still available NOS parts for the Pratt and Whitney and Wright Cyclone engines and the reproduction of the other wear parts that are needed. If those operators can keep 100's of those planes still flying then I'm not worried about keeping my aircooled VW's running either. Wink
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EverettB Premium Member
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:31 am    Post subject: Re: What's going to kill our cars... Reply with quote

wcfvw69 wrote:
I think if I owned the less produced and less popular air cooled VW models, I would be sourcing the hard to find wear items right now. Also important to note is the MASSIVE difference in EBAY and Samba classified pricing vs. finding them at VW swap meets. I often see threads on this site where people can't find this part or that part. I then attend a VW swap meet and see many of them for rock bottom pricing.


Agree but this is usually West Coast vs. everywhere else.

I've been to a few East Coast shows where the swap meet was almost non-existent, like 20 people total and 75% of the stuff was rusted out junk. They basically have to buy from other places or spend a lot of time fixing things.
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raygreenwood
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:37 am    Post subject: Re: What's going to kill our cars... Reply with quote

In rgeard to NOS rubber parts...NOS seals, master cylinder and brake parts etc.....are already rarely useable for more than appearance. Rubber changes with age. It loses elasticity, chemical resistance and increases in hardness and shrinks. This is why NOS shovks and master cylinders are worthless to buy.

I already have kne of those "less produced" VWs. All I work on is 411 and 412....and some 914 and type 3.

The 411 and 412 parts situation has been desperate since the late 80s. If you hazard to dig around in the 411/412 forum....you will see that we MAKE most of the suspension and rare wear parts that we need.

I keep telling others who drive more plentiful types.....quit being complacent with the not so hard to get NOS parts. Buy what you can for you stash....but work hard to learn how to make what you may need or find workarounds that will allow you to safely stay kn the road.

And quit being cheap. When one out of several identical parts on say....your suspension are worn out....after decades of use.....quit being overly frugal. Replace all of them if you can get them....because they are all the same age. Leaving old parts in because you are being cheap insures that the other parts attached to them will likeley wear out faster. Ray
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wcfvw69 Premium Member
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 2:22 pm    Post subject: Re: What's going to kill our cars... Reply with quote

EverettB wrote:
wcfvw69 wrote:
I think if I owned the less produced and less popular air cooled VW models, I would be sourcing the hard to find wear items right now. Also important to note is the MASSIVE difference in EBAY and Samba classified pricing vs. finding them at VW swap meets. I often see threads on this site where people can't find this part or that part. I then attend a VW swap meet and see many of them for rock bottom pricing.


Agree but this is usually West Coast vs. everywhere else.

I've been to a few East Coast shows where the swap meet was almost non-existent, like 20 people total and 75% of the stuff was rusted out junk. They basically have to buy from other places or spend a lot of time fixing things.


I agree with you Everett that we are spoiled in the SW USA having so many used original VW parts in good condition around.

I don't mind paying more for a used part on this site or Ebay, especially if I need it in a hurry. It's pretty darn convenient to do a few clicks and the parts are on their way to me. I think like most of us, I also enjoy digging through dirty parts boxes at the VW swap meets for those rare parts as well as getting a good deal too.
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**Restored German Pierburg fuel pumps for sale or I can restore yours**
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Last edited by wcfvw69 on Thu Dec 01, 2016 1:26 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2016 7:20 am    Post subject: Re: What's ? Serial Number is 21646 ... Reply with quote

I don't know for sure "what's going to kill our cars...", but there's no doubt that what kills MY cars is usually ME!!!! Anxious

When I am done with a car, the car IS done! Laughing
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