What's going on with Porsche prices?

[rkeller]

Pre 2011 the forums were answering the question how much would it cost for me to get into a driver 912 or 911. The answers were (depending) but on average 10-13K for the 912 and 18K and up for the 911. The 912 especially has gone through the roof. Other than the 50th anniversary what has happened? I see more posted for sale now then ever before so the supply hasn't dried up. I don't see that many more people buying. What am I missing?

[raygreenwood]

I was waiting for this question from someone ....and you might not like my opinion.

Trust me.....I'm not trying to be bitchy or an asshole. Its a direct observation of what I have seen just lurking a bit over the past 3-4 years on numerous Porsche forums and talking to quite a few people offline.

1.From the cross section of people I have spoken to off line....real people many of which have had nothing to do with old cars of any kind.......because the economy has improved somewhat a lot of people have more disposable income. More than a few people are looking at getting into something they have wanted to for years.

This is also cyclic. As some people retire they finally have time for that restoration project they never had. Many people have retired or semi-retired......early due to poor employment.

2. From many of those people with disposable income....who were never really into classic cars of any kind......who never really knew there was any potential collectors value outside of concors muscle cars......the handful of crappy reality shows like Ass Monkey garage and others....has brought the car flipper investor cockroaches out of the woodwork.

I have met three people personally who are doing this. They have moderately deep pockets and great imaginations in marketing and loads of time and some of them travel in their main work.
This means that the market for old Porsches....and VWs....is not only active....but very visible to a larger cross section of the public.

That last point is important......because five years ago....outside of forums, garages, clubs and the track......old Porsches or old VWs or even old muscle cars....occupied virtually "0%" of the general publics' consciousness. Now they are visible. ....and a certain spectrum of the public who may have had or wanted a Porsche or VW long ago and moved on to other things.....rekindled that desire. Many of them also realized from pricing, condition and scarcity.....that if they want one.....they should not hesitate or haggle or price.....but get it while they can....so they are willing and able to pay the"buy it now" price...which just like ebay..screws with values.

Just like with houses.....every one desirable house in a neighborhood that sells above market value.....is one more benchmark for those in the "house-flipping" market to use as a tool to drive prices higher.

3. This forum and others like it is its own worst enemy. You wont like what I am going to say.....but here it is:

Over and above all other forums....I have never seen a forum with more questions asked or discussions about...."what is this worth"....."would this be a good investment"......."what years have better resale value"......"what mods should I do to increase or not affect resale value"........

Personally. ....I can tell you that if you are getting into aircooled cars in general as an investment or are worried about resale values.....you either have more time and money than sense. .....or are getting into this hobby/area for all the wrong reasons.

Some who have asked these questions with low or no post numbers are obvious car flippers.......others.....are newbys who finally realized that if you want one (Welcome!)....get them while you can because not only will Porsches not always be easy to find....certain critical engine parts of good quality are getting scarce. Its going to get harder to make a good running restoration.
Trust me....I restore 411 and 412....and that has always been harder than reatorimg any 914 or 911.

The 912 situation.....is one of the first telltales that a goodly portion of car-flippers and short term people have become involved. For decades the purist 911 owners and aficionados have turned their nose a little at the 912 and 914.....as the poor mans 911 and poor mans Porsche respectively.....and the low resale values have reflected that. They have been cheap to buy if one wanted one.

Those who are new to the market/hobby know nothing of the differences....they just the look at the badge/name.......and are easy to sell a 912 or 914 to.....for better available money (see more available disposable income comment above).

Add to this...as these markets have picked up a little.....you have items like the article several months ago in Hemmings motor news......about the 914 and 912 starting to become good investments. Articles like that only happen.....when cars/hobby segments are starting to become visible to the public.

You also have.....and the ACVW market is reflecting this a lot now....another wave of the "I want to be a hippie movement" happening again. When a 21 window micro bus sells at auction for $300,000 in the past two years.......a whole spectrum of the public and not all of it good for our hobby....stands up and takes notice. Not just of ACVW's......but of many cars of this era....and especially air cooled cars of this era...which include Porsches.

Other items. ...and this is just my opinion. .....there are so many forums for the Porsche 911.....that I think it was actually an action of dis-service.....to make this forum...especially centered in the Samba which is a VW site.....exclusively Porsche. It should have been kept 914, Porsche kit cars and 912 at a stretch .....which outside of one engine is basically type 4 VW. When you pump up a forum to a more exclusive level......you fuel the fires.
Ray

[rkeller]

Well thought out, and an astute observation.
Baby boomers are retiring, and like me, have probably always wanted one. In 20 years when the wave is over, the Porsches may become garage queens. That would really be a shame. I've spent my life wanting one but had other priorities, now the kids are on their own and I have the garage space the cars climb out of reach again. I've really enjoyed the VW restorations we've done and still want to move up the performance ladder but the current asking price for a solid restoration candidate is more than a nice driver just 5 years ago.
Thank you for the thoughtful reply.

[thesatanicmechanic]

I think that some large part of the increasing value of air cooled 911s is due to the fact that the 996 & 997's M96 engine family, first introduced in the Boxster in '97, is an epic piece of shit that can catastrophically fail in an instant.

[raygreenwood]

[EverettB]

[raygreenwood]

[rkeller]

Rarity and Art value have some influence on prices and assuming all of us will live forever I can see a high price justification. There are so many other better cars out there MANY undeniably, more comfortable, better handling, better gas mileage with more features so is this price thing an aesthetics' and perception issue. Some people view Porsche drivers as snobs, twits, spoiled brats, or in the case of Jeremy Clarkson of Top Gear who thought it amusing to destroy a driver 911 http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xh59e0_clarkson-kills-porsche-911_auto, complete a-holes.
Porsche drivers (Clarkson excluded) consider themselves to be, in a word "cool". They feel cool because the design is cool. No doubt about it because when Porsche deviates from the formula (think model 996) the resale value plummets and people go out and buy Miatas.
So are we paying for drivable art? to feel cool (jealous bystanders opinions be damned) or what exactly? I personally have always thought the car was cool and don't give a rip what any body else thinks, however I wish I thought this strongly about a car who's price isn't getting launched into the stratosphere; but you know what they say, what goes up...

[raygreenwood]

[quote="rkeller"]Rarity and Art value has some influence on prices and assuming all of us will live forever I can see a high price justification. There are so many other better cars out there MANY undeniably, more comfortable, better handling, better gas mileage with more features so is this price thing an aesthetics' and perception issue. Some people view Porsche drivers as snobs, twits, spoiled brats, or in the case of Jeremy Clarkson of Top Gear who thought it amusing to destroy a driver 911 http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xh59e0_clarkson-kills-porsche-911_auto, complete a-holes.
Porsche drivers (Clarkson excluded) consider themselves to be, in a word "cool". They feel cool because the design is cool. No doubt about it because when Porsche deviates from the formula (think model 996) the resale value plummets and people go out and buy Miatas.
So are we paying for drivable art? to feel cool (jealous bystanders opinions be damned) or what exactly? I personally have always thought the car was cool and don't give a rip what any body else thinks, however I wish I thought this strongly about a car who's price isn't getting launched into the stratosphere; but you know what they say, what goes up...[/quote


Well said!
Ray]

[Sailor Jerry]

Most experts when it comes to values and the market have agreed that the 911/912 has simply been undervalued for years. This is a quote from hagerty (I believe). It isn't a bubble, they are simply gaining the value that they should have had years ago due to being one of the best built drivers cars you can purchase. If you have an opportunity to purchase one at a reasonable price, don't hesitate.

[rkeller]

Spoken like a true care salesman.
All kidding aside, for the sake of myself and other drivers (vs. collectors), I hope that is more hype than truth. I heard that about the 60s mustangs; and other than mint condition, number matching, original, low mileage, climate controlled garage queens, most have only had a modest increase in price. More along the standard supply and demand curve, maybe adjusted for inflation. The spike in older porsche prices since the 50th anniversary seems more like unrealistic exuberance.

[raygreenwood]

[Sailor Jerry]

[raygreenwood]

[Sailor Jerry]

[smoothfinishes]

When split buses are bringing more than a majority of 912 and 911 Porsches what would you expect?

They look inexpensive!!!!

Remember it was still cool to have a Porsche when a split window was just a damn hippie bus.

The 912's are finally starting to command prices reflecting the money and time needed to bring these cars back to proper form.

For the most part, enthusiasts aren't doing all phases of a restoration themselves anymore.

And back to the split window comment: Try! and find a site dedicated to any other breed of car like TheSamba.com. Something so easy to use and well thought out. It makes these cars easier to track, sell, buy restore and catalog! Well done Everett! I think this comes into play tremendously.

[tisius]

[raygreenwood]

All good and valid points.....to each their own. But...I travel the country for a living. Coast to coast. I meet hundreds of people and many, many engineers, business owners, gear heads, car enthusiests etc.

When you hang out among car enthusiests like here on the Samba and elsewhere....those who want and work on Porsches and other makes of car....sre just like you describe.

But for the most part.....outside of those who have been in the circles for a while.....the vast majority of people I am meeting who are getting into Porsche and some VW lately ....as of the last five years or so.....are more along the lines as I have described in this thread

They have deep pockets, are concerned with resale as much or more than emotional attachment, are keen to collect cool and trendy items, have few mechanical skills or just little experience with cars....and are more into the image.

Far too many times the first line or so of conversation is...."hey...you seem to be into this stuff.....what do you think this is worth?"......followed by....."yeah.... I'm not worried about the aquisition cost as long as the resale value is higher than the resto cost".

And.....of course they are not "RESTORING".....these cars....as per the REAL definition of restored. They are spending money to replace expensive parts that are dead or rusted. ...and then shining, them up driving them....then flipping them. For some of these cars .....its a real improvement and price is pimped accordingly.

For many cars though.....its a combination of improvement, preservation...and hack. ..and the price is still pimped accordingly....and each time....people just like them.....in a hurry, plenty of cash and no discretion..m.mpay the pimped price and the circle continues.


And yes...it IS identical to house flipping.

Believe what you want....its probably all of the above. Ray

[52HoffmanSplit]

[raygreenwood]