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ach60 Thu Feb 18, 2016 10:18 pm

Self-driving cars will be “here” by 2020!

Sorry for steeling this photo, but this is what the American Automobile Experience was all about!
I was reading an article in Car and Diver about the effects that self-driving cars would have.
The Author was pretty pessimistic about the effect there would be on society.
What he predicted is that self-driving cars would first show up in mining operations,
All those guys driving mining trucks would be replaced by self-driving trucks.
Then! Self-driving trucks would eliminate the over the road truck driver.
After that Self driving cars would eliminate half of the insurance industry,
because no one would be having accidents, so all those claims, and administrative
folks would lose their jobs.
Because our self-driving car would never make a mistake, there wouldn’t be any revenue from
Traffic tickets, parking tickets etc., and so cities and towns would have to find new ways to tax us.
Because we all wouldn’t be in love with making our new car purchase (think toaster),
so we would keep our self-driving car until it was economically unfeasible to repair.
And only then would we buy a new one,
so Automotive production would drop by 40% which would mean
even more people would be unemployed.
Will society as we know it collapse because of the self-driving car?

JayO Thu Feb 18, 2016 11:14 pm

[sarcasm]
As a child growing up in the '60's in America, we were taught 2 very important things.

#1 - We have to learn the metric system, because by 1976 this whole country will be 100% on the metric system.
#2 - by the year 2000 we will have a base on the moon, and flying cars.

So.... I'm starting to think that self driving cars, are the flying cars for this generation of school kids, hopefully they're at least metric.
I've learned one thing though, as fast as technology moves, it can not keep up with all of these companies PR departments. :D

Yes I've seen the videos about how well the self driving cars work, but the same legislative system that was supposed to OK the metric system back in '76, has to sign off on autonomous cars, so I'll believe it when I see it. :D
Lets not mention the moon base. :shock:
[/sarcasm]

- Jay

Brian Fri Feb 19, 2016 12:36 am

I can't wait for self driving cars. Things will be rad

Then again, sometimes when I drive to work I just kinda blank out and BOOM I'm at work. Auto pilot man.

[email protected] Fri Feb 19, 2016 6:44 am

ummm...

you can order a self driving Volvo now


http://www.volvocars.com/au/about/innovations/intellisafe/autopilot

http://www.volvocars.com/intl/about/our-innovation-brands/intellisafe/intellisafe-autopilot

what I can tell you as a 14+year Volvo tech is they started doing this with "city safety" and their active cruise control.

the active cruise is a neat idea...set the car to 70, and it holds 70, but when you come up on a car doing 60, the car automatically brakes and holds whatever speed your obstruction is doing.

that said, it is a VERY notchy system....the brakes pretty much slam on when you come to the obstruction.

the reality is, it's not very fluid. when the obstruction moves/speeds up the car "kicks down" and rapidly resumes the set speed. it is actually quite terrifying how it works/feels and has been the source of several complaints due to its harsh operation.

add to the fact that it needs to be calibrated quite often....car needs to be dead nuts level, run a calibration program through VIDA and a real pain in the ass driving sequence to finish off the calibration.

people don't want to pay for repairs now....just think how that will work.

additionally, this system (self driving that is) is made possible by electric power steering. now, electric ASSIST p/s has been around for some time. basically it's an electric pump on a hydraulic reservoir that eliminates a conventional p/s pump.

these cars are going FULL electronic meaning the steering wheel is a sensor and there is an electric motor on the rack, with NO MECHANICAL CONNECTION of the steering wheel to rack. just wait till that fails...and it will when the contacts take a dump through the clock spring (which I replace a few a week for steering angle sensor codes)

let the good times roll baby....

the only thing the general public can do is NOT BUY THESE CARS and send a message to these manufacturers...

knowing what I know about cars, I wouldn't own anything newer than '07...

VOLKSWAGNUT Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:05 am

I certainly hope not.. but .. vehicle manufacturers are running out of options to offer to schmooze new customers their way....... so its just one more step in vehicular evolution and driver regression.

Although I'd bet a self driving vehicle would be 100 times safer than a human driven vehicle.. speaking as one of the techs that would have to deal with complaints..and problems.. they will most likely push me over the edge.. or .. maybe into that taco and beer truck business I've always wanted to start..

Yes..please.. auto driving vehicles.. I welcome them with open arms..
I'm already practicing.. "You want chips and salsa with that?".. :lol:

.

[email protected] Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:15 am

VOLKSWAGNUT wrote:
Yes..please.. auto driving vehicles.. I welcome them with open arms..
I'm already practicing.. "You want chips and salsa with that?".. :lol:

:lol:

we were just talking on another forum about a group buy on hot dog carts, or lawn mowers...

sadly, it's getting hard to keep up with some of this stuff. that, and when you look at what the average tech gets paid, has to invest in tooling plus the toll it takes on your body the ends just don't justify the means.

fiber optics, LAN, LIN, MOST, CAN....holy shit...may as well go work for the cable company....

TDCTDI Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:22 am

The manufacturers are quickly realizing designed obsolescence, if they can't do it mechanically then they'll do it through electronics & price & availability. Eventually, all of mankind will be obsolete.

Air-Cooled Head Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:55 am

I just cannot see self-driving cars on the road w/ human-driven cars.
I doubt a computer could be programmed to account for all the idiotic stuff human drivers do.

TDCTDI wrote: Eventually, all of mankind will be obsolete.

Judging from the stuff I see and read, the Earth will then be a better place. :roll:

[email protected] Fri Feb 19, 2016 10:51 am

more great thinking by Volvo


https://www.yahoo.com/news/volvo-calls-time-car-key-113347945.html

Zeen Sat Feb 20, 2016 9:54 pm

I don't know how widespread it will be in 2020, but it's coming. The technology works; no breakthroughs are needed, just refinement.

Computers are much safer drivers than people, but inevitably, idiots will get past the algorithms and kill themselves against autonomous vehicles. The lawsuits that will follow are a bigger obstacle than the technology. That's why Silicon Valley seems to be ahead of Detroit; they really aren't more advanced technically, but they are more aggressive because they haven't been sued into submission yet.

The tipping point will come when enough statistics are built up. Then we may even see it swing the other way, and we will outlaw people driving cars. As Elon Musk said, "You can't have a person driving a 2-ton death machine."

hitest Sun Feb 21, 2016 5:26 pm

When the shit hits the fan and these things muster, I'm buy a good helmet; a HANS device and a 1978ish FJ-40. I'll search out and slam on the brakes in front of every one I see until I've personally eradicated my local streets of them. Thank me later.

[email protected] Sun Feb 21, 2016 6:16 pm

Zeen wrote: "You can't have a person driving a 2-ton death machine."


says the man who puts as many distractions as possible in his cars :?

ever try and fiddle f*ck with a newer HAVC system? radio? it's unreal some of the hoops you have to go through just to put the heat output on the floor...

people keep buying these distractions on wheels so yea, I guess self driving would be ok...or not.

here's the rub...

so as some may know, I have spent the better part of 14 years with Volvo...their BLIS (BLind spot Information System) has more hiccup's than you can imagine....triggering just on the white lines on the road, odd reflections, a spec of dirt on the camera, the camera heater causing fog/false readings....it's so bad and so many TSB's were put out that they finally put in the manual "don't trust the system"

scary stuff.....

now, with Volvo's City Safety deal, the camera must be cleaned every so many months which involves pulling the rear view mirror apart/overhead console. who is going to shell out the $$$ to keep these systems working?

another thing that has been talked about is reducing the cars performance per failure....meaning that if you blow a CEL and it stays on, lets say your car only has 70% of it's power. 2, 3, 4 issues now 30% or it goes in "limp home" mode...

there is scary shit going on in these cars now. using OEM diagnostics I can tell you the exact minute your CEL came on, how fast you were going, how many RPM's the engine was spinning...your window position, your sunroof position, if you had your seat belt on...if your 12v plug was in use...it's staggering the info I can pull out of your car, let alone what the government can...

Dwayne1m Sun Feb 21, 2016 8:31 pm

Autonomous cars are coming. You can't stop "progress". Looks like every major car manufacturer is deeply involved in perfecting their own. Even Google is working on one. The insurance industry will push for it, as will the environmentalists, and the government. They will perfect the system.
With today's cars you need to be more of an electrical engineer then a mechanic. Just a matter of time, and I think the pressure to convert to autonomous cars(and electric cars) will be quite heavy down the road. If you think $2 gas is here to stay you are a fool. Environmentalists are slowly winning. If you think I'm crying wolf look at what they did to the coal industry. Once they kill coal completely, which is on life support already, what do you think their next target will be?

enjoyther1de Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:00 pm

I'm with hitest. The day you tell me I can no longer drive on public roads without technological assistance is the day I go rouge. Bumper car time! Let's put those Icars to the test!
If there are no human drivers allowed does that mean no more traffic cops?

iamdonquixote Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:15 pm

I'm imagining they will first appear in constrained situations.

For example, imagine a short term car rental service, or carsharing, (like zipcar) where the car shows up at your house/apt with no driver, then you drive it where you want, and when you are at your destination, it drives itself away. If the cars are well 'trained' to deliver themselves within a say small radius, then this could happen within a decade.

I know for a fact that Uber is already working on autonomous cars.

I recall the first year of this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge
First year was a joke, no one finished, now its a joke if you don't finish.

Cars didn't do very well until Lidar came in to play, then pretty much everything came together. Cheap lidar is key to current autonomous vehicle success.

Bad weather, icy roads will be interesting, massive traffic will be interesting, bad weather and traffic... These are situations that human beings are likely to (at least initially) out perform robot cars.. Even if modestly successful within the next decade ( or two ) it will be arguably a revolutionary technology.

The algorithms for self driving cars will have to have a VERY defensive driving style which can pose problems. Imagine someone road raging against a car with no one in it? :lol:

Dwayne1m Mon Feb 22, 2016 5:21 am

If you think you will be able to go rogue on the government, good luck with that. In my opinion this is a 3 headed monster. Insurance companies, environmentalists, and the govt. No individual can beat that. Look what they have done to the cigarette business. Look at the price and inconvenience it is to smokers to do something that is still legal. I don't think I will see autonomous cars as the majority in my lifetime, but I think my daughter(18) will. Technology grows by leaps and bounds every year. I believe that most of these autonomous cars once perfected will be electric which will put pressure on everyone to get rid of gas powered cars. Then the govt can tax the living daylights, just like they do for cigarettes, or pass ultra strict emissions standards out of those that still want to run gas powered cars. Then as generations fade away each new generation will accept the autonomous car.

TDCTDI Mon Feb 22, 2016 5:35 am

iamdonquixote wrote: I'm imagining they will first appear in constrained situations.

For example, imagine a short term car rental service, or carsharing, (like zipcar) where the car shows up at your house/apt with no driver, then you drive it where you want, and when you are at your destination, it drives itself away. If the cars are well 'trained' to deliver themselves within a say small radius, then this could happen within a decade.

I know for a fact that Uber is already working on autonomous cars.

I recall the first year of this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge
First year was a joke, no one finished, now its a joke if you don't finish.

Cars didn't do very well until Lidar came in to play, then pretty much everything came together. Cheap lidar is key to current autonomous vehicle success.

Bad weather, icy roads will be interesting, massive traffic will be interesting, bad weather and traffic... These are situations that human beings are likely to (at least initially) out perform robot cars.. Even if modestly successful within the next decade ( or two ) it will be arguably a revolutionary technology.

The algorithms for self driving cars will have to have a VERY defensive driving style which can pose problems. Imagine someone road raging against a car with no one in it? :lol:
THEN, the government can take the regular cars away because a car can be used as a weapon & cars aren't protected by any amendments. Like any of the amendments are going to be of much help for much longer.

enjoyther1de Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:15 am

I can go rouge. It just depends on how comfortable you are in jail.

iamdonquixote Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:37 am

TDCTDI wrote: iamdonquixote wrote: ... :
THEN, the government can take the regular cars away because a car can be used as a weapon & cars aren't protected by any amendments. Like any of the amendments are going to be of much help for much longer.

This is a thread about autonomous or "self-driving" cars, not guns or constitutional amendments.
Don't get your underwear wrapped around your bicycle axle, last I checked everybody still has their cars and guns in the USA. :snipersmile: :2gunfire: :181_yellow: :snipersmile:

Back to the thread topic: I wonder how much autonomous cars will mimic human behaviour like the 'herd mentality' we have during traffic jams or seeking alternate routes during congestion ( then everyone clogs up the alternate roots ) . Software bugs will be a BIG deal if they cause major problems, if your computer at home freezes up no one (typically) gets killed. Perhaps self-driving car software will have to go through the rigorous review/test/release cycle that Aeronautics s/w does? Its going to be a heavily regulated mess for sure... Its funny that the tech companies are already teaming with standard automotive companies who have the stamina to endure the regulatory nightmares. Its one thing to have a single Google car drive around sunny california, its entirely another to have millions of 'robot' cars on the road start crashing due to a software bug.

busdaddy Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:37 am

Don't be shocked if in just a few years there's talk of making all cars carry a mandatory transponder of some sort that broadcasts your VIN or some other information if they want to operate on a public road. It'll make that rogue trip rather difficult because all the cars you cut off will have a record of who did it and likely dash cam footage stored as well. The self driving paddy wagon will just pull up in front of your house later and send you a text to get in the back now.



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