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Fri Nov 18, 2016 6:40 am

I have a 1968 1500 Beetle which I have been involved with since 1973. It has travelled over 1/2 million miles but is still in a rust free, mechanically sound condition. I have bought every new part I can think off so that my 9 year old son can build a really good aircooled Beetle to drive when he trakes on the rebuild task to build an as new original condition car.

My concern is the price of aircooled Beetles continues to fall which will ultimately lead to their demise. If you look at other valued classic vehicles the purchase price increases which means people will try and maintain their original configuration.

My concern is not the resale price of the car but the longevity, knowledge and availabilty of pure vehicles.

Comments welcome.

Fri Nov 18, 2016 7:09 am

Meiang wrote: My concern is the price of aircooled Beetles continues to fall which will ultimately lead to their demise.

If it's true that the price of aircooled Beetles is falling (for which I would want to see some evidence before I accept as true), I think that is good for Beetles, because it will encourage new people to join the old car hobby. Beetles are such unique machines that people will want one just because they are Beetles. The price of other comparable collectible cars from the 60's are so high, no young person interested in the hobby could buy one today.

I think that while the supply of original spares or quality replacements is not infinite, they will be available longer than for other collectible cars, because (a) so many Beetles were built, and (b) they were built right up to 2003.

Fri Nov 18, 2016 7:28 am

curious as to why you think the prices are falling? I don't see that with anything I observe. My insurance company research tells me my 60 ragtop value keeps going up each year and had no problem with an agreed value of $24 K 3 weeks ago when my policy renewed :shock: up from $18K

Fri Nov 18, 2016 7:28 am

Where did you get the idea that the price of air cooled beetles is falling?

From what I can see.....a few things:

1. The price of beetles and most ACVW in GOOD to excellent condition is at an all time high.

2. The price of beetles and other ACVW's in poor condition.....is not dropping....they simply are not selling.

This points out a few items......and a lot of this is verifiable if you talk to a lot of people and read across a lot of forums ....not just here....and not just one or two forums here:

1. More and more people over the past few years getting into ACVW's.....have 0 mehcanical skills and are not interested in the basket cases and poor condition cars that they have to have skills to fix before they can be driven.

2. A lot of the people....like I listed in #1......who decide to get into a hobby car.....have good budgets these days. Better than back in the mid 2000's coming into and out of the recession.

3. A HUGE amount of sellers these days....are car flippers. They get into what can be quickly shined up and sold for a profit. Sometimes the profit is not large....so it seems the prices for what may SEEM to be a nice car.....are low. In reality a lot of these cars have so much wrong and need so much work to be survivable.....they should have been sold for less in the first place.

That last one is a big part of it.
Cars that need tons of work....or have rust.....or worst....have been horked up too many times by previous owners.......are not selling well. Too many people getting smart...waiting to find something better.....and car flippers getting impatient.....end up cutting them up to sell for parts.

Because the replacement parts quality seems to be at an all time low.....and there are already a lot of avcw's circulating that need parts.......selling the parts if you have the time to wait.....is good money.

Along with that ....the internet is bringing more and more stored, abandoned and sitting in the field.....acvw's out of the woodwork.
It makes availability seem abnormally high.....and the value abnormally low. So yes....for a short period of time the prices may "seem" low. It goes in waves.

Its called....a bubble :wink:

In just a couple of years....they will get harder to find and prices go up. Those who are paying attention....are already seeing how parts and workable chassis are being depleted.

Ray

By the way....I totally agree with part of what you noted. Too many cars being cut up and customized. Very few pure cars left.

Fri Nov 18, 2016 8:53 am

I think its plateauing a bit for sure..

Its supply and demand.. as always..and right now.. there are still plenty alive (people) to have some personal ties to old Vw's..
An in reality... that's what dictates what cars survive..

In 50 years.. maybe not so much..
IMO.. Its all relative to the current retirement or status age.

Old car..okok.. classic car people... are not what they used to be..
What makes a classic ..... a desirable classic car/vehicle..
Its personal ties.. its a mental thing.. Started dropping in the 70's..

By the time the late 70's rolled around.. and the back yard shade tree mechanic was starting to be reduced . .it also reduced the amount of young ones.. out hanging with their parent.. guardian.. care taker.. (whatever) who was in the garage.. trying to keep the family rolling turd simply going...
The resulting effect is creating a serious lull of personal ties to those interested in owning or working on their own cars.. and we are seeing.. more bought.... not built cars than ever... No to mention.. cars of the 70's... 80's .. are not as desirable..( a few) . yet.. or if ever..

I have a theory of future classic cars and future "restorations"..
Once they are consumed.. they will all either be all done.... built or bought (or parts) and after that time.. the same ones will continue to be traded among the few remaining enthusiasts.

A few examples..

There was a Big 50's car boom in the late 80's....its slowed down.. then the . the big Muscle car boom a few years ago is slowed down..
I see more 70's cars being resurrected now that should have been cake pans and toys by now.. and .. The early Fox Mustang interest.. is starting to reclimb to something other than drag cars..

The BIG Split Bus BOOM.. now.. its sliding down some.. and the Bay's have gained more popularity....

I've even heard of a current spike in the Honda.. CRX.. ..

So whats the next "classic"...

The years.. and general time.. are relative.

Will the classic car market ever die.?. ... Will the Beetle die?.. ...no.. but those who have interest in them surely will.. depends.. on the next classic..
Maybe its your current Kia.. or that New Beetle you have grazing out back.. :lol: ..

So in essence.. the answer may be.. nobody knows.. ..

If you get into VW's as an investment.. you just lost.. big time..

Besides.. who really cares..
Steven Hawking just warned we only have about 1000 years left.. so.. smoke em if ya got em boys.. and girls..
Ill be long gone..

.

Fri Nov 18, 2016 2:12 pm

I will say that I do see Beetles on Cl for long periods of time at pretty high prices, just an observation, and I hardly ever look at the Beetles for sale on the Samba.

Fri Nov 18, 2016 4:32 pm

More disturbing, there are fewer people (at least my observation) who enjoy working on cars. When I was a kid (I'm 64); I lived in a blue collar neighborhood and maybe a quarter of my friends' Dads worked on their cars (as did mine). From our Dad's we learned the basics, brakes, tune-ups and oil changes and enjoyed the sense of accomplishment; when I bought my first bug (a '66 T1 in 1971); I worked on it with my Dad.
Today-nobody I know works on cars (and I still live in a blue collar neighborhood). Everyone drives Hondas and Toyotas...and there I am with my two bugs. I'm afraid that fewer people are wrenching their cars and that may lead to the demise of our hobby.

Fri Nov 18, 2016 4:43 pm

Chip Foose said it best. The older generation wants to build something, the new kids today just want to buy something.

Fri Nov 18, 2016 4:46 pm

But more and more people are wrenching on their own VW's and they appeal to a broader age group so the hobby will be alive for awhile.
Besides there will always be the dreaded PO hacks to fix when they change hands :wink:

Fri Nov 18, 2016 5:15 pm

60ragtop wrote: But more and more people are wrenching on their own VW's and they appeal to a broader age group so the hobby will be alive for awhile.
Besides there will always be the dreaded PO hacks to fix when they change hands :wink: The age group thing is very true... have you seen thesamba youth thread? I'm there!
http://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=274590
I see a long future for ACVWs... everybody loves them :D

Fri Nov 18, 2016 8:17 pm

not according to
http://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=222778
http://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=222778
http://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=201726

2001 I bought my 56 sedan for a whopping $4000 could not touch a similar oval for twice that much.
2004 couldn't quite afford a mint 49 deluxe sedan for $15000, likely couldn't get another in same condition for twice that much.
2005 balked at a mint 13 window deluxe for $10000. I don't think I could get the same condition bus for much less than $40000 today.

Falling don't think so.

Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:36 pm

I see separate issues 1- folks that use acvw's as real transportation (very few left in this category) 2- folks that have it as a weekend/car show driver . The first group will be hard pressed to keep this up as real German parts (hell,I'm happy to see Mexican parts these days) dry up. The second group will probably be ok getting around on sub-standard parts since the cars will little actual street time. This group drives the market value and has little interest in builders. If you are in group one, start hording real parts (I am). Future looks bright to me over-all for ACVW's

Sat Nov 19, 2016 12:40 am

Meiang wrote: I have a 1968 1500 Beetle which I have been involved with since 1973. It has travelled over 1/2 million miles but is still in a rust free, mechanically sound condition. I have bought every new part I can think off so that my 9 year old son can build a really good aircooled Beetle to drive when he trakes on the rebuild task to build an as new original condition car.

My concern is the price of aircooled Beetles continues to fall which will ultimately lead to their demise. If you look at other valued classic vehicles the purchase price increases which means people will try and maintain their original configuration.

My concern is not the resale price of the car but the longevity, knowledge and availabilty of pure vehicles.

Comments welcome.
not to be too harsh, but it seems like you haven't been around VWs for very long.
prices trend up and down in short periods of time but overall, the value of vintage VWs has increased exponentially over the past few decades.
i bought my first car, a complete running 71 ghia in the mid 90s for one thousand large (still own it) and vintage VWs are still the only vehicles i own and drive every day.
a better means of conveyance has not yet been invented, IMO.

both fortunately and unfortunately, it's the dreamers, reminiscers and "investors" that drive market value and not people like me.

Sat Nov 19, 2016 9:33 am

Comparing value between VW's in the USA and Australia is pointless. What happens down under is totally different then what happens here. There were a lot more VW sold in the states, so the value and collectability can not be compared.

Sat Nov 19, 2016 10:11 am

It's been said before on this forum, but to you non believers, go to a model T or A show. Doesn't matter if its stock or hot rod. There's not one person younger than 60 there.

Once the generation that has a tie to the vehicle dies off, the cars decline with them as well as the value. We're not there yet, but I will happen at some point.

Sat Nov 19, 2016 10:45 am

Malokin Martin wrote: Once the generation that has a tie to the vehicle dies off, the cars decline with them as well as the value. We're not there yet, but I will happen at some point.

Very true. In fact go to any car show that features lots of hot rods and the "white tops" will be in the vast majority. The one nice thing for us is that VWs still appeal to younger people as well, so the interest level will remain for some time yet. Go to any VW show and you will see all age groups represented...

Sat Nov 19, 2016 10:48 am

Malokin Martin wrote: Once the generation that has a tie to the vehicle dies off, the cars decline with them as well as the value. We're not there yet, but I will happen at some point.
But as stated VW appeal to a broader age group so it will be awhile for them to all die off :lol:
Can't begin to compare VW's to model T's or A's different era altogether

Sat Nov 19, 2016 11:21 am

If there is some kind of shake up like a new A/C VW bug or bus there will be a renewed popculture interest in these old cars--it happened after the New Beetle intro. I think it is true that most will want a driver not a fixer upper.

Sat Nov 19, 2016 3:02 pm

I'm much more worried about the econazis down the road. :x

Mon Nov 21, 2016 10:38 am

econo natzies? :shock: