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jeffrey8164 
Samba Member
Joined: January 06, 2018
Posts: 3818
Location: Georgia
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 Posted: Fri May 12, 2023 1:06 pm Post subject: Where the heck are all the parts? |
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As far as I know, Covid is done and the supply chain is back.
So, where are all the parts?
I’ve been waiting months for heads, cams, sumps and host of other goodies!
Just venting I suppose.
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mukluk
Samba Member
Joined: October 18, 2012
Posts: 7028
Location: Clyde, TX
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| Posted: Fri May 12, 2023 1:45 pm Post subject: Re: Where the heck are all the parts? |
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While the movement portion of the supply chain is back up, the actual manufacture of goods doesn't seem to be. It's difficult to ship parts that haven't been made yet.
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kingkarmann
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Joined: November 05, 2003
Posts: 4114
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| Posted: Fri May 12, 2023 4:43 pm Post subject: Re: Where the heck are all the parts? |
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| mukluk wrote: |
| While the movement portion of the supply chain is back up, the actual manufacture of goods doesn't seem to be. It's difficult to ship parts that haven't been made yet. |
....and staffing shortages.
No one I know wants to work in a hot sweaty shop making VW parts that everyone will just bitch about anyhow.
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mukluk
Samba Member
Joined: October 18, 2012
Posts: 7028
Location: Clyde, TX
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| Posted: Fri May 12, 2023 5:22 pm Post subject: Re: Where the heck are all the parts? |
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| kingkarmann wrote: |
....and staffing shortages.
No one I know wants to work in a hot sweaty shop making VW parts that everyone will just bitch about anyhow. |
Where's that thumbs up button? 
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raygreenwood
Samba Member
Joined: November 24, 2008
Posts: 21520
Location: Oklahoma City
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| Posted: Sat May 13, 2023 4:15 am Post subject: Re: Where the heck are all the parts? |
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More to it than meets the eye. To those not associated with manufacturing the economy seems good (cause the TV tells you so).....tons of cash in a certain range of consumers, high demand for products, low unemployment (somewhat artificially so).....but....petroleum based products (plastics, chemicals, adhesives, base resins and energy).....are costly right now.
A big portion of the availability issue for manufacturing is that with high costs and inflation, large stocks of raw materials are not being kept on site. Materials are ordered on demand so "base" raw material manufacturers are not keeping ready stock either. They manufacture on demand to fulfill orders.
Example it's not a great idea right now for chemical manufacturers domestic and foreign to havd big tanks full of resins and solvents they put money into laying around if you have no idea when they will be bought. That....and orders are smaller. The end user is not keeping safety stocks.
And goods that are manufactured are made in smaller batches with less production lines running (it's a combination of not enough personnel, not enough raw material and somewhat keeping supply barely steady to keep prices up)
Ray |
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Xevin
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Joined: January 08, 2014
Posts: 7635
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| Posted: Sat May 13, 2023 7:26 am Post subject: Re: Where the heck are all the parts? |
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| raygreenwood wrote: |
More to it than meets the eye. To those not associated with manufacturing the economy seems good (cause the TV tells you so).....tons of cash in a certain range of consumers, high demand for products, low unemployment (somewhat artificially so).....but....petroleum based products (plastics, chemicals, adhesives, base resins and energy).....are costly right now.
A big portion of the availability issue for manufacturing is that with high costs and inflation, large stocks of raw materials are not being kept on site. Materials are ordered on demand so "base" raw material manufacturers are not keeping ready stock either. They manufacture on demand to fulfill orders.
Example it's not a great idea right now for chemical manufacturers domestic and foreign to havd big tanks full of resins and solvents they put money into laying around if you have no idea when they will be bought. That....and orders are smaller. The end user is not keeping safety stocks.
And goods that are manufactured are made in smaller batches with less production lines running (it's a combination of not enough personnel, not enough raw material and somewhat keeping supply barely steady to keep prices up)
Ray |
Always good information Ray!
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| 67rustavenger wrote: |
GFY's Xevin and VW_Jimbo!  |
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| Damn that Xevin... |
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My God! Xevin and I 100% agree  |
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MuzzcoVW
Samba Member
Joined: February 21, 2018
Posts: 1475
Location: Westfield, MA.
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| Posted: Tue Jun 06, 2023 3:44 am Post subject: Re: Where the heck are all the parts? |
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| jeffrey8164 wrote: |
As far as I know, Covid is done and the supply chain is back.
So, where are all the parts?
I’ve been waiting months for heads, cams, sumps and host of other goodies!
Just venting I suppose. |
See what Ray said. Also, I can tell you the supply chain ISN'T back to anywhere near what it was. We still have constant issues getting certain parts for our electrical business. An example, I'm on the computer early this morning trying to find meter sockets. Big manufacturer says they can't get people to work, or come back to work. In some states it will take years to recover from this covid crap... and others are just fine. Funny how that works! |
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Cusser
Samba Member
Joined: October 02, 2006
Posts: 31379
Location: Hot Arizona
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| Posted: Tue Jun 06, 2023 6:19 am Post subject: Re: Where the heck are all the parts? |
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| jeffrey8164 wrote: |
As far as I know, Covid is done and the supply chain is back.
So, where are all the parts? |
Covid excuse is over.
Current excuse is "we cannot find employees" to hire.
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1970 VW (owned since 1972) and 1971 VW Convertible (owned since 1976), second owner of each. The '71 now has the 1835 engine, swapped from the '70. Second owner of each. 1988 Mazda B2200 truck, 1998 Frontier, 2014 Yukon, 2004 Frontier King Cab. All manual transmission except for the Yukon. http://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/album_page.php?pic_id=335294 http://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/album_page.php?pic_id=335297 |
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Abscate
Samba Member
Joined: October 05, 2014
Posts: 22670
Location: NYC/Upstate/ROW
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| Posted: Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:25 am Post subject: Re: Where the heck are all the parts? |
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Cost of money.
Interest rates are way up so no one wants to hold inventory. Accounting never processes the cost of delays and lost business due to
Supply chain shortages , they just think that inventory is bad. So many companies drink this koolaid
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clockworkbox
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Joined: July 12, 2020
Posts: 286
Location: Williamsport, PA
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| Posted: Tue Jun 06, 2023 10:34 am Post subject: Re: Where the heck are all the parts? |
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I bought a new truck last summer and it is missing the rear park assist chip due to the "chip shortage". Almost a year later I still have no ETA on the chip to complete my truck.
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raygreenwood
Samba Member
Joined: November 24, 2008
Posts: 21520
Location: Oklahoma City
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| Posted: Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:31 pm Post subject: Re: Where the heck are all the parts? |
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| clockworkbox wrote: |
| I bought a new truck last summer and it is missing the rear park assist chip due to the "chip shortage". Almost a year later I still have no ETA on the chip to complete my truck. |
Thats funny you mention this! I was just having a conversation on Sunday with two friends...very nice, well to do and functionally oblivious to much of what really goes on friends...but friends nonetheless.
It was at its root...a conversation about their stock investments.
They were honestly having a happy and hopeful conversation about when the "inflation Reduction Act"....was going to kick in and lift up their tech stocks....that they had only really invested in tech stocks like Intel and AMD ...i.e. chip manufacturers when they heard about the "CHIPS Act" last August!
I had to inform them of some very common information that it seems hardly a soul (especially among government and media) have spent even five minutes Googling.
We have a lot of chip manufacturing here in the US....but only of a specific range of processor types...and not enough unused capacity to bring it all back onshore from Taiwan and other places.
And the kicker is that if all of our chip manufacturers like Intel and AMD among others...had any excess capacity that they could use to take up the slack....they would be doing so.
The belief was/is that the CHIPS act would fund NEW capacity. I do not disbelieve that....but had to inform my friends that semiconductor chips require a bare minimum of an ISO class 5 clean room to manufacture in.
With even finer pitch processors they require even cleaner clean rooms than that. Its common practice that if you absolutely do or die REQUIRE and ISO class 5 (previously listed as class 100) ...then you typically build for an ISO class 3 (previously listed as class 1)....and all of this depends on maximum allowable particle size.
Clean rooms like this on the scale required to make "chips" and make money at it....take an average of 2-3 years just to build (if you can even currently get the equipment to put in the room during that schedule)......BUT.....more importantly they require about 2 years to actually get the building clean enough (particle and vapor wise) to manufacture any successful product at all.
Any NEW semiconductor chip/processor capacity will require an average of 4-5 years to get off the ground and peak time of 5-7 years.
The only wild cards might be large firms like AMD that maybe....if anyone is lucky....might have large fab sections attached to operating fabs that are standing idle from 15 years back and are already clean enough and just need re-tooling. That would be 2-3 years to get off the ground.
My two buds were bummed out because they will not really see a stock bump from the CHIPS act anytime soon!
Ray |
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Abscate
Samba Member
Joined: October 05, 2014
Posts: 22670
Location: NYC/Upstate/ROW
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| Posted: Tue Jun 06, 2023 1:30 pm Post subject: Re: Where the heck are all the parts? |
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| Quote: |
| They were honestly having a happy and hopeful conversation about when the "inflation Reduction Act"....was going to kick in and lift up their tech stocks....that they had only really invested in tech stocks like Intel and AMD ...i.e. chip manufacturers when they heard about the "CHIPS Act" last August! |
These kind on investors are desperately needed, to fund my portfolio.
Anyone trying to play the market on economics like this deserves their losses.
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raygreenwood
Samba Member
Joined: November 24, 2008
Posts: 21520
Location: Oklahoma City
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| Posted: Tue Jun 06, 2023 1:48 pm Post subject: Re: Where the heck are all the parts? |
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| Abscate wrote: |
| Quote: |
| They were honestly having a happy and hopeful conversation about when the "inflation Reduction Act"....was going to kick in and lift up their tech stocks....that they had only really invested in tech stocks like Intel and AMD ...i.e. chip manufacturers when they heard about the "CHIPS Act" last August! |
These kind on investors are desperately needed, to fund my portfolio.
Anyone trying to play the market on economics like this deserves their losses. |
Yes....I kind of told them the same thing. You do not speculate on serious tech just based off of their past performance graph or hearing that they took on new business or projects. You need to get a grasp on what they make, how hard it is, what the cost for materials is, what the time frame is....and most importantly...what are the risks stacked up against them?
Ray |
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Abscate
Samba Member
Joined: October 05, 2014
Posts: 22670
Location: NYC/Upstate/ROW
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| Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2023 5:31 am Post subject: Re: Where the heck are all the parts? |
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…and a realization that stock prices are driven by analysts, not business performance , except in a loosely correlated way.
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mark tucker
Samba Member
Joined: April 08, 2009
Posts: 23937
Location: SHALIMAR ,FLORIDA
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| Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2023 9:22 am Post subject: Re: Where the heck are all the parts? |
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| I think it all comes down to mark up. buy cheep and triple or quadruple the cost. and when people are slow to buy they rase the price to make their 50th new car payment or whatever. too stupid to realize cheeper sells more and makes more profit in the end. thus china is king. |
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mark tucker
Samba Member
Joined: April 08, 2009
Posts: 23937
Location: SHALIMAR ,FLORIDA
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| Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2023 8:32 am Post subject: Re: Where the heck are all the parts? |
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| on another note I have a pile of new parts,new heads new case,new crank,rods,coatred bearinsg new trans& much more lots of new stuff I bought over 10 years ago. so where are the new parts? there waiting for me to decide weather to do something with them or not..currently its' not, and in my dam way. if our local drag strip was still open I would probably have a dragster ready to go. |
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