Will VW prices keep going up?

[finster]

[Helfen]

[finster]

I was using the uk definition of classic car which covers post ww2 cars through to the 1980s. we do have collector's cars but don't have the quaint term antique car over here.

[[email protected]]

It’s a matter of what was available 45-60 years ago. Tack on 15-20 years to that, and that is the age of the crowd that has the expendable cash to buy something to relive their youth. The owner of the shop I work at has concours restored a few Model T’s, and Model A’s. One of those, concours restored, went for around $25k in the 80’s. One of those, concours restored, goes for about $25k in 2018. The generation that was mostly interested in that era of cars for the most part has passed on. Prices aren’t going to “go down” for another 10-20 years untill the majority of VW enthusiasts have literally died off. Then there are the “unique”, “cult”, or “status” vehicles that get purchased by all age groups. A customer bought a 97 Aircooled 911 Turbo a few years back, and the value of it grew about 225% in 18 months. A mid 60’s Ferrari Lusso the place I work at completed in 2013 has increased in value some 350% in the last 5 years. Like some have mentioned, there are still deals to be had, but you have to be at the right place/right time. You usually have to be first in line with cash in hand driving your truck/trailer before the seller has time to “look it up on the net”. Then they give you a price that’s 1000% more than the vehicle is worth since another one “just like it” went for this much at Barret Jackson/Mecum.

[DurocShark]

If you're into this for the money, forget it. Aside from high demand specific models (I'm looking at YOU 21 window... ) or pristine low original mile units, they aren't worth what we put into them.

the 64 SharkDaughter and I are restoring was purchased for $800. When we're done it'll be a $5k bug, but will have hundreds of hours of labor in it and several thousands of dollars.

No, for me it's the enjoyment we get out of the vehicles. Even my beater 68 Baja is just a fun car to work on, to drive, and to talk about. Whatever the car costs, I get more than that out of it in the joy of owning it.
_________________
No boom today. Boom tomorrow. There's always a boom tomorrow.

[modok]

Of course prices go up
Because of inflation

[[email protected]]

[Mos6502]

I don't think many people who aspire to Porsche ownership end up looking at beetles. They usually start looking at adjacent vehicles, like BMW 2002s, Alfas, etc. Which although they have all gone up too, are not caught in an insane price bubble like the 911 is right now.

I think microbus prices are in a bubble too. It'll pop in a few more years.

The beetle will keep going up, they're still far too common to get caught in a collector price bubble. But they're also more attractive and accessible than most other vehicles of the same vintage, so I don't think they'll suffer as much in the long term as many other vintage cars that have a more niche following.

The internet has been great for blowing up prices on all sorts of collectibles. It just takes a few blogs or forum threads to hype up one not-rare but not-common item, and prices can spiral out of control within just a few months.

About a decade ago there was a big fad in camera collecting for Diana toy cameras. Even unboxed examples were selling for $100-$150 on ebay. It was the result of internet hype for an uncommon, but by no means rare, collectible. Now? You can find boxed examples all day long for $20. Ten years ago there were blogs, and even forums dedicated to these cameras. Now? Not so much. Nobody talks about them anymore, the hype has deflated, and so have the prices.

[calvinater]

Prices will always go up, will your wages keep pace?
_________________
"Albatross"!

[[email protected]]

[Mos6502]

Collector car prices fluctuate a lot over time. In the 1980's, prices climbed year after year for 1950's and 1960's exotics and sports cars, then tanked in the early 90's. Microbus prices will likely tumble when baby boomers get too old to drive/die off. There are plenty of people who will want those buses, but the number of people who can/are willing to pay silly prices for them will greatly diminish. And when this happens, the number of people who're silly enough to buy cars as "investments" will also stop paying silly prices.

Prices on a lot of collectible cars from the 40's and 50's already are stagnating, the number of people who grew up wanting them is going down. And most of these cars don't have the reputation, or the culture around them to sustain continued interest in younger buyers. 15 years ago, you might pay 20K for an excellent restored Nash Metropolitan. Currently, you might pay about the same dollar figure, despite inflation. And this is a car that has a cult following.

The beetle however, has the culture around it, the great numbers still in existence, and the availability of parts that it will likely continue to be popular. But prices will never jump up. I've been watching prices since the 1990s, creep up every year. But there has never been any wild increases, and likely never will be. I don't think the beetle will ever experience a bubble on account of its accessibility.

As for Porsche owners, I know many, and none of them are interested in beetles. Some even have a contemptuous attitude toward the car. But this may be because they're all longtime owners, not people who decided just now they want one, and found they're priced out of the market already.

[Mr. Unpopular]

Cars do not continually increase in value until the end of time. Look at the muscle car market, or even better, the Ford Model T market.

You can buy a perfectly restored Model T for like $10k, FAR less than the cost to build it. Why? Who wants a perfectly restored Model T these days? Most that did are long dead or are in nursing homes.

Cars values rise because the people that wanted them when they were young, finally have the disposable income to afford them once they get a solid career, kids are grown, etc. Then, they start to want to thin their belongings to retire, travel, get sick, etc. That's when prices start to fall.

The muscle car market, those guys are getting into their 70's now. That's why the values have dropped like a rock.

Eventually, VW owners will age out, and prices WILL fall.
_________________
"In any racing engine, the nearer you are to it disintegrating, the better it's performance will be"
-Keith Duckworth, creator of the Ford/Cosworth DFV

[danfromsyr]

a model T isn't nearly as useful or 'endearing' as a beetle.

you can still get in a beetle and (if capable) drive it an hour(s) on the road as transportation or for fun..

no one did that with Model Ts since 1936
_________________

[Dwayne1m]

Like mentioned earlier, if you grew up with a Bug it will be important to you. If you grew up after the Bug era, Bugs will mean little if anything to you. For instance, I have a relative who is HUGELY into Vettes. He runs the large local Vette club and has numerous high dollar Vettes. He's in his 70's. He recently purchased a car that he's been looking for and it isn't a Vette. It's a 1951 Chevy. Nothing special about a 1951 Chevy to any of us, but to him it's special because his first car was a 1951 Chevy. He's reliving his youth which is what many of us are doing with our Bugs. Once we die out the value and interest in Bugs will drop considerably.

[[email protected]]

[Mos6502]

The model T is maybe not the best example, except for the very early cars, they have never been worth much. And the very early cars are still gaining value - the later more common 1920s cars aren't gaining anything at this point though.

That's all beside the point, because 1930's and 1940's cars are in the same boat for the most part despite being more driveable and practical. Prices just aren't going up. Except for the really rare stuff, the demand just isn't there - and cars from the 50s and 60s are going to experience the same thing in a decade or so.

[Mr. Unpopular]

[Dwayne1m]

Saw a video on the news this morning about a big car show in LA. All the hoopla was about all the new electric vehicles. That's the future, and IMO if the Beetles are going to hang around someone will have to convert them to electric, give them a decent range, not the 80 most are claiming at this point in time, have heat and make them affordable. Otherwise in the museums and barns they go.

[[email protected]]

[Dwayne1m]