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How many 411s and 412s are driving today?
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scott3t
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:55 am    Post subject: How many 411s and 412s are driving today? Reply with quote

Ok, so I hear that in the UK the license follows the car so you can actually see how many cars of any model are registered and on the road.

In the US each state runs its own DMV and they don't automatically talk to each other. I personally have not seen a driving, running 411 or 412 in well over 15 years (but hopefully will see mine running in the coming months). So....

Any ideas how many are actually running today in the US? With fuel injection? I'm especially interested in the '74 412 sedan, since I assume it's less. When I did see 412s runnning, they were usually the wagons/variants. I think I read somewhere the total number of 412s ever produced for the US market was around 125k or so. Or maybe that number was for all type 4s. Don't know.

The number has to be small...
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KTPhil Premium Member
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:57 pm    Post subject: Re: How many 411s and 412s are driving today? Reply with quote

https://www.thesamba.com/vw/archives/info/productionfigurestype4.php

Of the 367,728 cars built, I would be surprised if 1% (<4000) survived to this day.
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raygreenwood
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 6:44 pm    Post subject: Re: How many 411s and 412s are driving today? Reply with quote

KTPhil wrote:
https://www.thesamba.com/vw/archives/info/productionfigurestype4.php

Of the 367,728 cars built, I would be surprised if 1% (<4000) survived to this day.


Back about 10+ years ago when i was mostly on the STF...and traveled a lot more...by car....and i covered 13 states for work....lots of cities and towns on a regular basis...and I was looking around and asking questions.

Started digging through forums here, STF, UK and other groups. From traveling a lot in about say 15 states and knowing most of the VW shops in certain states....in the whole state...and asking around......I came to a guesstimate that (at that time) for each state...of what might be driving . I also had a few DMV friends who tried to look at numbers but no names for me.

Also...about that time....and it comes/goes in waves of about every 5-7 years right now.....there were more than a few type 4's coming out of the "woodwork".

So what is the woodwork that these cars are hiding in?

Typically back yards of original owners who loved teh cars...but they broke expensively ...usually in the 10-15 years old range. These were $4200-$4500 cars. People tended to keep them....in backyards...under tarps....in garages....waiting to get round to time and money to fix them.

I have found no less than about 20 car repair shops in 5 states that had a 411 or 412 hiding in the back row. They worked on it for the owner for a while....and then usually either the engine or automatic blew and there was more in it than they could afford...so they traded it to pay a different bill.

And...I found REPAIR....not salvage yards...businesses that seemed to collect them. There were two here in Oklahoma city for a while...one up in Tulsa.....One in Des Moines Iowa...two big ones in Atlanta....and most of these were fixable....not wrecked...parked for broken this or that and bought for pennies.

So every 5-7 years....about 100 NEW cars appear in about an 18 month period. Craigs list...classifieds ...here on the forums etc.

Usually homeowners finally getting rid of them cause they are moving.....and some of those lots and repair houses clearing things out and putting them up for sale. t

Too many times...we see new people jumping into these cars....thinking they are "lego block" mix and match ACVW's like a beetle.....and they struggle for 3-12 months and screw it up more....or less.....and either sell it or scrap it.

I would say THAT is how we lose more of whats left than any other method.

So....beating around the bush there.....I was figuring no less than about 75-100 vehicles in Washington state...maybe 100+ in Oregon...maybe 75-100 in California.
All along the west coast...maybe 250 driving in various stages of title. But...about 2-3X that preserved ...sitting in backyards and lots.

They were popular across areas of the cold US...not quite midwest. Kansas, Oklahoma, Parts of Nebraska. There were more than a few in the south most part of New England. They were moderately popular through Eastern and central Canada. But those places suffered rust....and are the bastion of "detroit motor heads"....and VW's the farther North you went into the midwest...were looked upon as scrap even when they were new.

But....driving cars?...titled? I was figuring from experience through the South....at one point in time through about 1995.....there were exactly 8 titled to drive in Georgia. I know of another 10 that made it out of back yards and lots over the next 8 years from that state.

I would say....it would be a good average.....to say about 10 per state outside of California, Washinton, Oregon and Hawaii....at any given time.

So 47 states....X 10 = 470. Add a couple hundred for the west coast maximum (totally unknown really)...so call that 150....50 per west coast state.....and maybe 100 up in Eastern Canada (also unknown area )......

So....I'm betting about 750 cars in north America. This is both driving and in well kept, good intentions captivity. I think I was looking at about 1000+ a decade ago.

They made them in Australia. They are popular when they survive in the UK. The Scandinavian countries seemed to do well with them....we see a few from Finland, Denmark, Holland.

I saw one in Egypt in 2007...tricked out with lights...lowered...cruising the bridge over the Nile. I was not quick enough to photograph it and it was at night.

Driving.....I think <4000 could even be optimistic. Total in captivity...maybe close to that. Ray
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Lars S
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 01, 2020 11:23 pm    Post subject: Re: How many 411s and 412s are driving today? Reply with quote

Sorry, I have no exact answer to you scott3t just want to make a reference to Germany where also, as in USA, some 119.000 411/412's were sold in total.
Figures from 2019 says that they then had 222 cars left, as I understand it this is cars with paperwork i guess there is quite a number without papers also.

As a side note i found that some 57% of the cars sold to US were Variants.

Another side note is that in my country (Sweden) some 3% of the cars sold still are in traffic (registred and running).


//Lars S
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old DKP driver
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 08, 2020 11:35 pm    Post subject: Re: How many 411s and 412s are driving today? Reply with quote

There are 4 in the SF. Bay Area That are daily drivers and 12
That get towed from 1 shop to another😝
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