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Vanagon values at an all-time high?
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Wellington
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:34 am    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

Purchase price is one thing. Maintenance and repairs is another.
There is nothing on a Vanagon that is "complicated" or out of the reach of an average mechanic.
Now go try working on a new Sprinter, off to the garage you go for $140 an hour. My brother in law had transmission issues traced back to a chaffed transmission harness on his Sprinter (work Van) a $1200 repair. The vehicle also had serious rust issues for its age.
Comparatively, a well kept Vanagon is rather affordable.
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djkeev
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:49 am    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

The rub is that the repair parts available today are often of sub par quality.
If they work initially, they may fail quicker than the OEM parts did.

It can be frustrating but it is a supply problem seen across all aging platforms.

Dave
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:00 am    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

Daves right. The parts avail for repair are trash. Gas caps to CV joints they are not made well or even to fit.

That said my buddy just bought a 1996 chevy motor home thing and paid 11500. WTF its a big jalopy!! has spent 3k trying to make it road worthy now.

Then i went to buy a used f150. 110k miles and they are going for 14000. Everything is up. Cash is either loosing value or the price of stuff is going up fast.

Looks like my old vans are worth about 20k each. no complaints from this side of the transaction. Very Happy
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:44 am    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

I haven't built the H6 yet and already getting offers. My 181, off the chart in value. Never mind the 66 single cab.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:58 am    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

slownsteady wrote:
Check out the following for actual sold prices:

https://bringatrailer.com/volkswagen/vanagon/

I know it's a small sample, but here's a simple csv list of the BAT sold vanagon data in case anyone good at analysis wants to import it into excel to calculate price trends, $ vs Year, Westy vs non westy, etc

1986 Volkswagen T3 Transporter Doka, $20000, 10/5/20
1981 Volkswagen Vanagon L Westfalia, $23000, 9/18/20
1987 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia, $19000, 8/25/20
1981 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia, $20750, 8/18/20
1991 Volkswagen Doka Transporter Syncro, $38250, 8/17/20
Subaru-Powered 1991 Volkswagen Vanagon GL Westfalia Syncro, $30750, 8/14/20
1989 Volkswagen T3 Doka Transporter Syncro, $25500, 8/7/20
1987 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia Weekender, $16750, 7/30/20
1.8T-Powered 1982 Volkswagen Vanagon, $13250, 7/27/20
1985 Volkswagen Vanagon GL Westfalia 4-Speed, $16650, 7/14/20
No Reserve: 1980 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia, $27500, 7/3/20
No Reserve: 1982 Volkswagen Vanagon L Westfalia 4-Speed, $24500, 6/17/20
1983 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia, $15500, 6/11/20
No Reserve: 1987 Volkswagen Vanagon GL Wolfsburg Edition, $10250, 5/1/20
1985 Volkswagen T3 Transporter Doka, $15500, 4/23/20
Modified 1990 Volkswagen Vanagon Syncro 16″ Camper, $24000, 4/21/20
No Reserve: 1991 Volkswagen T3 Transporter Doka, $25350, 3/27/20
1.8T-Powered 1982 Volkswagen Vanagon, $10750, 3/25/20
1987 Volkswagen Vanagon GL Westfalia Syncro, $45300, 3/18/20
42k-Mile 1990 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia 4-Speed, $38500, 3/10/20
No Reserve: 1987 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia, $21850, 2/7/20
No Reserve: Original-Owner 1988 Volkswagen T3 Transporter Doka, $27000, 12/12/19
2.0L Zetec-Powered 1987 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia 4-Speed, $13500, 8/23/19
Syncro-Converted 1990 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia, $32000, 8/13/19
25-Years-Owned 1990 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia 4-Speed, $20250, 7/31/19
1991 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia Weekender, $16500, 6/19/19
1985 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia, $31500, 5/17/19
1987 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia 4-Speed, $21000, 5/3/19
No Reserve: 1989 Volkswagen Vanagon Syncro Westfalia, $23500, 4/16/19
No Reserve: 1987 Volkswagen T3 Doka, $9200, 3/29/19
1991 Volkswagen Syncro Doka Turbodiesel, $12750, 3/22/19
77k-Mile 1984 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia 4-Speed, $20300, 3/12/19
1.9 Turbo Diesel 1990 Volkswagen Vanagon Syncro, $22500, 12/18/18
1987 Volkswagen Vanagon GL Westfalia Syncro, $42000, 12/13/18
1987 Volkswagen Transporter Single Cab Syncro, $20500, 10/19/18
1991 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia Syncro, $27000, 10/19/18
1989 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia Syncro, $42000, 10/5/18
1984 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia 4-Speed, $16301, 7/23/18
1.9 TDI-Powered 1984 Volkswagen Doka, $16500, 7/17/18
1987 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia, $9999, 7/16/18
No Reserve: 1991 Volkswagen Vanagon GL, $3050, 5/23/18
1986 Volkswagen Vanagon Syncro Westfalia Weekender, $16000, 5/14/18
No Reserve: 1985 Volkswagen T3 Doka Diesel 4-Speed, $15200, 3/23/18
1983 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia Diesel 4-Speed, $22500, 3/20/18
Modified 1990 Volkswagen Vanagon Syncro 16″ Camper, $31500, 12/7/17
Modified 1989 Volkswagen T3 Doka Syncro, $53000, 11/15/17
No Reserve: One-Owner 1990 VW Vanagon GL 4-Speed, $6100, 10/23/17
1987 Volkswagen Vanagon Syncro Westfalia, $40000, 10/12/17
1989 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia 4-Speed, $19250, 10/4/17
1986 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia 4-Speed, $24000, 8/21/17
1991 Volkswagen Vanagon, $12250, 4/19/17
1981 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia, $12750, 1/31/17
1983 Volkswagen Vanagon Westfalia Pop-Top Camper, $15500, 11/11/16
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VdubVanner
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:38 am    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

djkeev wrote:
The rub is that the repair parts available today are often of sub par quality. If they work initially, they may fail quicker than the OEM parts did.

It can be frustrating but it is a supply problem seen across all aging platforms.

Dave


What ol' Vanagon/Westy Wise One aka Dave said X2, no make that X3.
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Wildthings
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:52 am    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

My neighbor just bought a new Ford truck to pull his camp trailer. He first looked at used trucks that were only a few years old and had low mileage and found people were asking more for a 2-3 year old truck with with 50K miles than he could buy a new on for.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:14 pm    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

sanchius wrote:

I know it's a small sample, but here's a simple csv list of the BAT sold vanagon data in case anyone good at analysis wants to import it into excel to calculate price trends, $ vs Year, Westy vs non westy, etc


It's a Friday and I was just goofing around anyway...(I make no claims that I didn't corrupt the data converting it to a table). Trend for all T3s is roughly flat. Segregating 2WDs and Syncros shows 2WDs increasing slightly and Syncros declining slightly. Calling a true data scientist to the white courtesy phone.


All BaT T3s
Image may have been reduced in size. Click image to view fullscreen.


Syncros
Image may have been reduced in size. Click image to view fullscreen.


2WDs

Image may have been reduced in size. Click image to view fullscreen.

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Current: 1990 Westy Camper - Bostig RG4, 2wd, manual trans w/Peloquin, NAHT high-top, 280 ah LFP battery, 160 watts solar, Flash Silver, seam rust, bondo, etc., etc.

Past: 1985 Westy Camper - 1.9 wbx, 2wd, manual trans, Merian Brown, (sold after 17 years to Northwesty who converted it to a Syncro).
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:02 pm    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

Your data will be noisy until you have samples of more than30 units in each bin, in case something like 300 sales toget an annual sales price trend

By noisy, I mean the natural variation in price will be someth8ng like 40% of the price, so trending will be tough
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:40 pm    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

Give me a break !!!!

The value of a Westy is based on condition and mechanical
restoration-- the holy grail. Like the Porsche air cooled market,
the appearance can be overwhelming, "It's a beauty!".
while the mechanical condition is secondary. Buyer beware!

As previously mentioned, there are a LOT of turds
floating up in value, due to the truly outstanding examples
selling for high value. The turds are selling to
persons that buy based on cosmetics and 'the look'.

"Oh, I thought that an original engine with 150K and copious
oil leaks would take my family over Tioga Pass with no issues."

"Oh, the seam rust that was painted over just before sale
is a 'proper restoration". Same with rhino coated rocker panels.

"How could an '82 differ that much from an '87"
they look like the same vehicle. (the last vanagons were the best)

"Air conditioning just needs a recharge". (says every seller)

"Only surface rust underneath". (be sure to put it on a lift and look)

Image may have been reduced in size. Click image to view fullscreen.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:47 pm    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

Abscate wrote:
Your data will be noisy until you have samples of more than30 units in each bin, in case something like 300 sales toget an annual sales price trend

By noisy, I mean the natural variation in price will be someth8ng like 40% of the price, so trending will be tough


i agree there aren't many conclusions to be drawn from this information, other than I expect not a penny less than $38,500 from the buyer of my 2WD van.
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Current: 1990 Westy Camper - Bostig RG4, 2wd, manual trans w/Peloquin, NAHT high-top, 280 ah LFP battery, 160 watts solar, Flash Silver, seam rust, bondo, etc., etc.

Past: 1985 Westy Camper - 1.9 wbx, 2wd, manual trans, Merian Brown, (sold after 17 years to Northwesty who converted it to a Syncro).
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:37 pm    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

Data got me curious about campers and dokas so I did some grouping to see prices by model.
2wd Campers excluding outliers - Avg Price 2018-19 $21,106, Avg 2020 $22,167
Syncro Campers - Avg price all years - $35,475
Dokas excluding 1 outlier - Avg $19,925
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:09 am    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

Lest we forget...

If we put 15k into the SP500 we would have 27k today,unless you paid someone to manage it , in which case you would have about 22k

Still more than the 2020 price of a Vanagon

Cars are lousy investments. Cars are expensive fun toys.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:04 am    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

Very true, but I’m guessing you also couldn’t find many other 1985 vehicles selling for much over scrap value.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:29 am    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

My mechanic was just telling me a few days back that they have seen a massive up swing in prices for Nissan 300ZX. Had a tale of a one with solid body, garage stored, in dire need of all new rubber that owner had him get running to prep for sale. owner was hoping for 11k and the mechanic was very skeptical. Sold for 11500 after advertising for 12500 for two weeks.

Not sure of the year but Id venture to say those are 80s vehicles. Ive never looked at one. Too hard to sleep in.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:03 am    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

Abscate wrote:
...Still more than the 2020 price of a Vanagon

Cars are lousy investments...


But it is hard to enjoy a week at the beach with your 5000 shares of Intel.

I never treat cars like an investment though the last one I sold went for 25 times what I paid for it. Had plenty of fun in the years between buying and selling.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:26 am    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

SSWesty wrote:
Data got me curious about campers and dokas so I did some grouping to see prices by model.
2wd Campers excluding outliers - Avg Price 2018-19 $21,106, Avg 2020 $22,167
Syncro Campers - Avg price all years - $35,475
Dokas excluding 1 outlier - Avg $19,925


This is a better summary of the data than my graphs.

Of course, Vanagons aren't pork bellies or bushels of soy beans so the selling price for every Vanagon is going to vary.

Overall, these prices seem to reflect a fairly stable market for Vanagons over the past five years ago. When the BaT average for a 2WD camper increases to $30K in a year or two I'd say the market is spiking.
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Current: 1990 Westy Camper - Bostig RG4, 2wd, manual trans w/Peloquin, NAHT high-top, 280 ah LFP battery, 160 watts solar, Flash Silver, seam rust, bondo, etc., etc.

Past: 1985 Westy Camper - 1.9 wbx, 2wd, manual trans, Merian Brown, (sold after 17 years to Northwesty who converted it to a Syncro).
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:55 am    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote


Link


I wonder how the Mitsubishi Delica market is doing? And the affect on the Vanagon prices. Might be a regional thing but I see more and more Delicas in the Pacific Northwest. My non VW friend bought a Ram Travato. and my sister a Ram Promaster. None of them into road tripping until this year. Both of them can work remotely and enjoy exploring around. I think the people wanting to get outside (2020) safely and explore in a camper, RV, or other make all camping vehicles more desirable. Just a guess.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:11 pm    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

How many pork bellies fit in a Vanagon, anyway?

Great movie, was watching it last August when the Creator whacked one of the Koch Brothers's
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:31 pm    Post subject: Re: Vanagon values at an all-time high? Reply with quote

Abscate wrote:
How many pork bellies fit in a Vanagon, anyway?


turn those machines back on!

jimf909 wrote:

i agree there aren't many conclusions to be drawn from this information, other than I expect not a penny less than $38,500 from the buyer of my 2WD van.


my 1991 Vanagon Westfalia appears to have been an outstanding purchase at $5k. for the paltry sum of $4800.00 for post purchase "investment" to clean and make running, safe, and fun, my profits will be bigly huge!

i need to buy at least 3 more before Wall Street wakes up
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