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swharris Samba Member
Joined: September 10, 2010 Posts: 496 Location: N. Orange County
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Posted: Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:46 am Post subject: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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The current and ongoing world economic crash will come home to roost in the form of repriced VW assets eventually(IMO).
When do you think that will happen in our VW world? Soon? 1-2 years? Never(because the entry price for most is super low)? Opinions welcome.
I think you are already seeing it. Adds for buses are stagnating here. I'm sure I'm not the only one seeing this. I contend it will continue. "reduced" price ads will soon de-regure. |
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Bonesberg55 Samba Member
Joined: January 18, 2012 Posts: 1270
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Posted: Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:04 pm Post subject: Re: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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My opinion is that used car prices in general will rise as the cost of purchasing a new vehicle continues to be unreasonable. EVs will help in putting new car prices out of sight for most. New vehicle cost is disproportionate to anything else including housing. Based on the inflation rate for the past 50 years, the cost of a new vehicle is double what it should be. Correct me if I'm misunderstanding what you're getting at. |
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Abscate Samba Member
Joined: October 05, 2014 Posts: 22639 Location: NYC/Upstate/ROW
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Posted: Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:24 pm Post subject: Re: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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We are outliers here. The piece of crap car we bought in the 1960s 70s 80s lasted three years with first owner and 2-3 years until end of life.
1990-2000 era cars run 10-20 years and are still owner serviceable
2010 they started to get too smart.
They do cost twice as much, but they last 3x longer , with much less maintenance required, and they don’t piss all over the environment like the 70s _________________ .ssS!
Last edited by Abscate on Sat Oct 01, 2022 3:20 am; edited 1 time in total |
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KTPhil Samba Member
Joined: April 06, 2006 Posts: 33991 Location: Conejo Valley, CA
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Posted: Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:57 pm Post subject: Re: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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Picture Cuba as a model for how we "mechanics" will keep our old cars running in another 30 years when we are declared outlaws, not just outliers. |
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Joe 20 Samba Member
Joined: August 27, 2005 Posts: 655 Location: Ohio
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Posted: Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:33 pm Post subject: Re: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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Haven't we covered this before? 15 matches for "VW prices" search just in this forum LOL the first was in 2002 so I guess they've been out of whack for a while. There does seem to be some stagnant adds on here though. Have been for a while too. I think the days of a "really nice VW" for a cheap price are gone, never to return no matter how bad the economy gets. Each year there are fewer and fewer of them. Although I did just read that non VW cars in the 1946-1954 range should not increase as fast as say muscle cars due to the fact that we pumped out huge numbers of them after the war. So maybe there's hope... _________________ "Someday the world is gonna be populated by nothing but Volkswagens'" Corporal Klairvoy |
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vwinnovator Samba Member
Joined: July 11, 2005 Posts: 1555 Location: Still doing it in the back of your VW
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Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:48 am Post subject: Re: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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I generally price my cars / parts on how much would it take someone to remake / build...
I keep them fair and if a buyer doesn't appreciate the value, they don't have to buy them...pretty simply.
I've seen plenty of outrageous prices as well as plenty of "give it away" prices.
I've also trashed many items that have no marketable value compared to the cost of space they take up.
Never really follow the "economics" of a market up and down for things like collector cars and houses.
You live in a house to be a home, and unless your paying 100% cash, rarely do you make a profit off selling one once you add all the real costs into one.
(realtor fees, closing costs,property taxes, interest, maintenance,operational costs, electric/water, etc)
You buy a classic/collectable as an "extra" unnecessary desire. you choose to by them as a full on project or as one completed by another. If the quality of the work is to your want/needs, then the price/value of what your buying is what it is.
Just because someone sells a top notch 23 window bus for under $100K, doesn't mean the value of all top notch 23 window buses have to decline in cost as well.
As most of these classic/collectible cars are "extras", most who own them are well off enough to not have to sell them at a discount due to "economic" fluctuations.
One thing to really look at is inflation though. It's really the decline of your purchasing power per dollar.
If you think about it, if a car been advertised and stagnant while inflation is increasing, even by paying more than you think its worth, your actually getting a discount as your "paper money" has lost value, while the tangible car is still the same tangible object. |
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Abscate Samba Member
Joined: October 05, 2014 Posts: 22639 Location: NYC/Upstate/ROW
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Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:16 am Post subject: Re: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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We have a local guy who routinely buys bays and splits at 1/3 of samba prices.
If you use samba as a buying guide instead of the legwork to find real buys, you are trading cash for time. No judging, this is is a personal decision _________________ .ssS! |
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Tom K. Samba Member
Joined: March 10, 2005 Posts: 1603 Location: Central Pennsylvania
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consvws Samba Member
Joined: April 07, 2009 Posts: 950 Location: Roseburg, OR
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Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:18 pm Post subject: Re: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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Maybe join a Kia car club site & buy/sell a buncha worthless parts. Old vws are very fixable cars unlike new stuff. If your wiring goes bad you total the car, lol. Now the parts are worthless because no one would waste there time trying to fix it anyway.
Stuff that's made of metal should be worth more than plastic imo.
I have sellers remorse all the time, because I usually have to pay twice as much as what I sold the part for last year. On that note, I wish I'd have bought a buncha vws & Porsches back in the day.
I wonder if anyone will ever say that about a Kia in 30-40 years from now |
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EVfun Samba Member
Joined: April 01, 2012 Posts: 5473 Location: Seattle
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Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:39 pm Post subject: Re: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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I view it like this;
What is valuable now in the automotive world is what those in their 50's to 70's remember from their youth. Muscle cars of the '60's and those old VW's up into the '70's. The '50's cars are still popular, and more so in the VW world as their enthusiasts liked them over new in many cases. In time it will be '70's and '80's econo boxes the already see starting to climb due to gen-X and elder millennial interest budding.
On the other hand, buying a clean older Model T restoration in good running shape is getting cheaper now. Sadly, the people that remember them most fondly, growing up in the '40's and '50's (as hot rods) are now leaving this world behind. Even the older street rods are getting more affordable.
So, I see the old VW's having some more years left in them. Current economic conditions may cause a slacking for a while, but longer out they will likely grow in value until just after you start seeing the muscle car market slow.
That said, the truly best of the best in ANY era of cars will remain valuable! _________________
Wildthings wrote: |
As a general rule, cheap parts are the most expensive parts you can buy. |
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consvws Samba Member
Joined: April 07, 2009 Posts: 950 Location: Roseburg, OR
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Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:48 pm Post subject: Re: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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EVfun wrote: |
I view it like this;
What is valuable now in the automotive world is what those in their 50's to 70's remember from their youth. Muscle cars of the '60's and those old VW's up into the '70's. The '50's cars are still popular, and more so in the VW world as their enthusiasts liked them over new in many cases. In time it will be '70's and '80's econo boxes the already see starting to climb due to gen-X and elder millennial interest budding.
On the other hand, buying a clean older Model T restoration in good running shape is getting cheaper now. Sadly, the people that remember them most fondly, growing up in the '40's and '50's (as hot rods) are now leaving this world behind. Even the older street rods are getting more affordable.
So, I see the old VW's having some more years left in them. Current economic conditions may cause a slacking for a while, but longer out they will likely grow in value until just after you start seeing the muscle car market slow.
That said, the truly best of the best in ANY era of cars will remain valuable! |
But there is a lot of custom 40s & 50s cars. What percentage of them are now hot rods? A nice well kept original car from the 40s is probably unheard of. Also, how many good parts are left for that kinda stuff? Most the old model Ts etc. I see around here are just some custom ressurection from a rusty frame found on a farm.
Bahas & Dune buggies will still be cheap in the future, but a nice original paint VW will be fewer and farther between |
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EverettB Administrator
Joined: April 11, 2000 Posts: 69802 Location: Phoenix Metro
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Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2022 4:28 pm Post subject: Re: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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Tom K. wrote: |
For over a decade have consistently noticed that Samba prices are much higher than prices in the broader ACVW market. Cars sit unsold for months and years on Samba. Prices are lower on CL, eBay, FB, etc. where cars sell in days or weeks. |
This may be true overall but you are probably also missing the "deals" here.
I've literally seen cars sell the same day, even recently. Ad is posted, car is sold, ad is deleted, you never even see it.
I agree there are lots of overpriced cars that sit here forever though. _________________ How to Post Photos
Everett Barnes - [email protected] | My wanted ads
"Water is the only drink for a wise man" | "Communication prevents complaints"
Stop dead photo links! Post your photos to The Samba Gallery! |
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EVfun Samba Member
Joined: April 01, 2012 Posts: 5473 Location: Seattle
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Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2022 5:46 pm Post subject: Re: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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consvws wrote: |
EVfun wrote: |
I view it like this;
What is valuable now in the automotive world is what those in their 50's to 70's remember from their youth. Muscle cars of the '60's and those old VW's up into the '70's. The '50's cars are still popular, and more so in the VW world as their enthusiasts liked them over new in many cases. In time it will be '70's and '80's econo boxes the already see starting to climb due to gen-X and elder millennial interest budding.
On the other hand, buying a clean older Model T restoration in good running shape is getting cheaper now. Sadly, the people that remember them most fondly, growing up in the '40's and '50's (as hot rods) are now leaving this world behind. Even the older street rods are getting more affordable.
So, I see the old VW's having some more years left in them. Current economic conditions may cause a slacking for a while, but longer out they will likely grow in value until just after you start seeing the muscle car market slow.
That said, the truly best of the best in ANY era of cars will remain valuable! |
But there is a lot of custom 40s & 50s cars. What percentage of them are now hot rods? A nice well kept original car from the 40s is probably unheard of. Also, how many good parts are left for that kinda stuff? Most the old model Ts etc. I see around here are just some custom ressurection from a rusty frame found on a farm.
Bahas & Dune buggies will still be cheap in the future, but a nice original paint VW will be fewer and farther between |
I think you are I are saying the same thing. The true original (not restored unless it is a 6 figure restore) will retain value. You can can find that from the late 19th century early automobiles to cars only 30 years old (the Jay Leno land of restorations, of stock and vintage customs.) The difference is, I think that the current VW restoration, using a the best mix of NOS and decent reproduction parts available, will be just like the Model T's I see now. At least in the Pacific North West I can find area T's for sale in the local Craigslist almost any day of the month. The asking prices are often similar to worse looking VW Bugs. Customs are all over the place in price, not nearly as easy to compare, but I think they too are following a memory curve in value.
I've considered going from Berry Mini-T to real Ford Model T. Growing up in the '70's and '80's I read "Street Rodder," "Hot Rod," and "Dune Buggies and Hot VW's" magazines. I dropped Street Rodder as it was clear I was not going to be able to afford to go that route. I chose the late '30's styling of the Beetle. Gotta love the traction too, when trying to screw with faster cars on the street. _________________
Wildthings wrote: |
As a general rule, cheap parts are the most expensive parts you can buy. |
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skills@eurocarsplus Samba Peckerhead
Joined: January 01, 2007 Posts: 16859 Location: sticksville, ct.
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Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:40 am Post subject: Re: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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swharris wrote: |
The current and ongoing world economic crash will come home to roost in the form of repriced VW assets eventually(IMO).. |
lots of "toys" coming up for sale, many for pennies on the dollar. your average American is an idiot consumer who earns a dollar but spends two.
people are walking away from projects...automotive, motorcycle/atv, tractors etc. With high food prices, energy prices and a tight job market people are selling off just about any 'dead weight' they can so they can keep the lights on.
people aren't feeling very confident these days so the first thing to go are the 'toys'
i don't think prices will drop, why should they? there is still a finite supply of old VW's and same with the parts. prices may stabilize a bit but i don't think they are going to go into dirt cheap fire sale territory...and let's face it even if they did there are very few people that would "stock up" on any of it when basic necessities are sky high _________________
gprudenciop wrote: |
my reason for switching to subaru is my german car was turning chinese so i said fuck it and went japanese....... |
Jake Raby wrote: |
Thanks for the correction. I used to be a nice guy, then I ruined it by exposing myself to the public. |
Brian wrote: |
Also the fact that people are agreeing with Skills, it's a turn of events for samba history |
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Manfred58sc Samba Member
Joined: October 05, 2009 Posts: 3382
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Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:14 pm Post subject: Re: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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Basket cases and projects get weaker and weaker as the skills requires to make them more than lawn art become scarcer by the day as the old school dies off or retires. Running cars that can fill the dream or ( gasp) actually provide transportation sell just fine across the spectrum. I see real solid Beetles ready to go for $3.5-6K here in the West and they sell quickly. I've noticed a few more on the road as well. The samba universe is so large it takes a long while to adjust to distortions. The REAL adjustment will be in shipping larger parts. When shipping is 3 or 4 times the value of the part it ain't gonna happen for most buyers. That makes projects harder to complete or repair on top of deficiencies in mechanics.
Right now its a fierce fight for 20 year old Hondas and Subarus as the workers transition down to ubers and Bus passes. _________________ Fat chick owner/operator |
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crankbait09 Samba Member
Joined: October 10, 2016 Posts: 1304 Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
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Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2022 5:12 pm Post subject: Re: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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I don't have much to add by means of the going prices of these classic cars, not just VW's. But this very topic comes up often at the car shows I attend here in Ohio. Not just VW's but all the classic cars are high in value, or at least when it comes to the price people are paying. I have also heard some people mention that once all the baby boomers are gone, they think the classic cars will slowly start to dwindle away cause there is no interest from the younger generations. All comes down to supply and demand at that point. I figured I have some time left, and I certainly hope the classic cars don't start disappearing. I do notice that 75% of the car owners at the car shows I attend are well past retirement. I am one of the hand full of younger people that register/attend the car shows (non-spectator). I see that a lot. Maybe the prices plummet once the older generation decreases in size. _________________ 1963 Ragtop |
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Manfred58sc Samba Member
Joined: October 05, 2009 Posts: 3382
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Posted: Sat Oct 22, 2022 7:30 pm Post subject: Re: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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Careful, don't measure the classic car scene by car shows. Many, many owners have abandoned them long ago ( cost, snobbery, awful 50's-60's surf music etc.etc.) I agree the boomer driven car show is outta here real soon ( no loss as far as I'm concerned ). The new wave is show and shines, cruises, FB user groups, and even old time websites. Young people are smart enough to know that "winning" a $10 trophy after you have dumped $70K into a car that you are afraid to drive is insane. Most of my car sales have been to younger enthusiasts. They get a cool, reliable older ride for 1/2 the price of the worn out KIA at the dealer lot. _________________ Fat chick owner/operator |
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rayjay Samba Member
Joined: March 26, 2008 Posts: 1505 Location: Buford GA
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Posted: Fri Nov 04, 2022 8:08 am Post subject: Re: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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What I can’t figure out is that in spite of all the genuine economic gloom and doom in my area they are building houses and apartments everywhere they can and as fast as they can. |
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rayjay Samba Member
Joined: March 26, 2008 Posts: 1505 Location: Buford GA
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Posted: Fri Nov 04, 2022 8:11 am Post subject: Re: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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I’m going to buzz through a car show tomorrow afternoon and then go pu another beetle parts car 7 miles away. |
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wheel607 Samba Member
Joined: May 30, 2004 Posts: 1847
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Posted: Fri Nov 04, 2022 10:11 pm Post subject: Re: When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions. |
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Way, way to many people on the Samba are buying up all the "junk" VW parts and cars trying to make a living. They are not at all enthusiasts like they say, but a greedy lot that likes to charge the most for a particular part. This is not at all just sour grapes, just not the way it was in the 1960s and 70s when people generally helped each other out with VW parts and pricing. Now I find, greed forces the issue. I am not at all greedy and the stuff eventually comes to me for the right price.......but I dont try to make a living at it. Things have changed, and not for the better! The difference is, on the Samba, parts are seperated, cataloged, some cleaned, overall a knowledgeable group. Craigslist is another story......unseperated, uncataloged mess. Inflation only drives this number up as Busstom notes, and it will not get any better at all until there is more unemployeed people looking to make a dime instead of a dollar on used parts. It is all connected. |
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