When will the reality hit Samba classified prices? Opinions.

[swharris]

The current and ongoing world economic crash will come home to roost in the form of repriced VW assets eventually(IMO).

When do you think that will happen in our VW world? Soon? 1-2 years? Never(because the entry price for most is super low)? Opinions welcome.

I think you are already seeing it. Adds for buses are stagnating here. I'm sure I'm not the only one seeing this. I contend it will continue. "reduced" price ads will soon de-regure.

[Bonesberg55]

My opinion is that used car prices in general will rise as the cost of purchasing a new vehicle continues to be unreasonable. EVs will help in putting new car prices out of sight for most. New vehicle cost is disproportionate to anything else including housing. Based on the inflation rate for the past 50 years, the cost of a new vehicle is double what it should be. Correct me if I'm misunderstanding what you're getting at.

[Abscate]

We are outliers here. The piece of crap car we bought in the 1960s 70s 80s lasted three years with first owner and 2-3 years until end of life.

1990-2000 era cars run 10-20 years and are still owner serviceable

2010 they started to get too smart.

They do cost twice as much, but they last 3x longer , with much less maintenance required, and they don’t piss all over the environment like the 70s
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[KTPhil]

Picture Cuba as a model for how we "mechanics" will keep our old cars running in another 30 years when we are declared outlaws, not just outliers.

[Joe 20]

Haven't we covered this before? 15 matches for "VW prices" search just in this forum LOL the first was in 2002 so I guess they've been out of whack for a while. There does seem to be some stagnant adds on here though. Have been for a while too. I think the days of a "really nice VW" for a cheap price are gone, never to return no matter how bad the economy gets. Each year there are fewer and fewer of them. Although I did just read that non VW cars in the 1946-1954 range should not increase as fast as say muscle cars due to the fact that we pumped out huge numbers of them after the war. So maybe there's hope...
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"Someday the world is gonna be populated by nothing but Volkswagens'" Corporal Klairvoy

[vwinnovator]

I generally price my cars / parts on how much would it take someone to remake / build...

I keep them fair and if a buyer doesn't appreciate the value, they don't have to buy them...pretty simply.

I've seen plenty of outrageous prices as well as plenty of "give it away" prices.

I've also trashed many items that have no marketable value compared to the cost of space they take up.

Never really follow the "economics" of a market up and down for things like collector cars and houses.

You live in a house to be a home, and unless your paying 100% cash, rarely do you make a profit off selling one once you add all the real costs into one.
(realtor fees, closing costs,property taxes, interest, maintenance,operational costs, electric/water, etc)

You buy a classic/collectable as an "extra" unnecessary desire. you choose to by them as a full on project or as one completed by another. If the quality of the work is to your want/needs, then the price/value of what your buying is what it is.

Just because someone sells a top notch 23 window bus for under $100K, doesn't mean the value of all top notch 23 window buses have to decline in cost as well.

As most of these classic/collectible cars are "extras", most who own them are well off enough to not have to sell them at a discount due to "economic" fluctuations.

One thing to really look at is inflation though. It's really the decline of your purchasing power per dollar.
If you think about it, if a car been advertised and stagnant while inflation is increasing, even by paying more than you think its worth, your actually getting a discount as your "paper money" has lost value, while the tangible car is still the same tangible object.

[Abscate]

We have a local guy who routinely buys bays and splits at 1/3 of samba prices.

If you use samba as a buying guide instead of the legwork to find real buys, you are trading cash for time. No judging, this is is a personal decision
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[Tom K.]

For over a decade have consistently noticed that Samba prices are much higher than prices in the broader ACVW market. Cars sit unsold for months and years on Samba. Prices are lower on CL, eBay, FB, etc. where cars sell in days or weeks.
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'91 Vanagon Westfalia
'70 Beetle Convertible
'71 Super Beetle Semi-Automatic: https://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=714131&highlight=
'65 Ghia: https://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=762478&highlight=

[consvws]

Maybe join a Kia car club site & buy/sell a buncha worthless parts. Old vws are very fixable cars unlike new stuff. If your wiring goes bad you total the car, lol. Now the parts are worthless because no one would waste there time trying to fix it anyway.

Stuff that's made of metal should be worth more than plastic imo.

I have sellers remorse all the time, because I usually have to pay twice as much as what I sold the part for last year. On that note, I wish I'd have bought a buncha vws & Porsches back in the day.

I wonder if anyone will ever say that about a Kia in 30-40 years from now

[EVfun]

I view it like this;

What is valuable now in the automotive world is what those in their 50's to 70's remember from their youth. Muscle cars of the '60's and those old VW's up into the '70's. The '50's cars are still popular, and more so in the VW world as their enthusiasts liked them over new in many cases. In time it will be '70's and '80's econo boxes the already see starting to climb due to gen-X and elder millennial interest budding.

On the other hand, buying a clean older Model T restoration in good running shape is getting cheaper now. Sadly, the people that remember them most fondly, growing up in the '40's and '50's (as hot rods) are now leaving this world behind. Even the older street rods are getting more affordable.

So, I see the old VW's having some more years left in them. Current economic conditions may cause a slacking for a while, but longer out they will likely grow in value until just after you start seeing the muscle car market slow.

That said, the truly best of the best in ANY era of cars will remain valuable!
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[consvws]

[EverettB]

[EVfun]

[skills@eurocarsplus]

[Manfred58sc]

Basket cases and projects get weaker and weaker as the skills requires to make them more than lawn art become scarcer by the day as the old school dies off or retires. Running cars that can fill the dream or ( gasp) actually provide transportation sell just fine across the spectrum. I see real solid Beetles ready to go for $3.5-6K here in the West and they sell quickly. I've noticed a few more on the road as well. The samba universe is so large it takes a long while to adjust to distortions. The REAL adjustment will be in shipping larger parts. When shipping is 3 or 4 times the value of the part it ain't gonna happen for most buyers. That makes projects harder to complete or repair on top of deficiencies in mechanics.

Right now its a fierce fight for 20 year old Hondas and Subarus as the workers transition down to ubers and Bus passes.
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Fat chick owner/operator

[crankbait09]

I don't have much to add by means of the going prices of these classic cars, not just VW's. But this very topic comes up often at the car shows I attend here in Ohio. Not just VW's but all the classic cars are high in value, or at least when it comes to the price people are paying. I have also heard some people mention that once all the baby boomers are gone, they think the classic cars will slowly start to dwindle away cause there is no interest from the younger generations. All comes down to supply and demand at that point. I figured I have some time left, and I certainly hope the classic cars don't start disappearing. I do notice that 75% of the car owners at the car shows I attend are well past retirement. I am one of the hand full of younger people that register/attend the car shows (non-spectator). I see that a lot. Maybe the prices plummet once the older generation decreases in size.
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1963 Ragtop

[Manfred58sc]

Careful, don't measure the classic car scene by car shows. Many, many owners have abandoned them long ago ( cost, snobbery, awful 50's-60's surf music etc.etc.) I agree the boomer driven car show is outta here real soon ( no loss as far as I'm concerned ). The new wave is show and shines, cruises, FB user groups, and even old time websites. Young people are smart enough to know that "winning" a $10 trophy after you have dumped $70K into a car that you are afraid to drive is insane. Most of my car sales have been to younger enthusiasts. They get a cool, reliable older ride for 1/2 the price of the worn out KIA at the dealer lot.
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Fat chick owner/operator

[rayjay]

What I can’t figure out is that in spite of all the genuine economic gloom and doom in my area they are building houses and apartments everywhere they can and as fast as they can.

[rayjay]

I’m going to buzz through a car show tomorrow afternoon and then go pu another beetle parts car 7 miles away.

[wheel607]

Way, way to many people on the Samba are buying up all the "junk" VW parts and cars trying to make a living. They are not at all enthusiasts like they say, but a greedy lot that likes to charge the most for a particular part. This is not at all just sour grapes, just not the way it was in the 1960s and 70s when people generally helped each other out with VW parts and pricing. Now I find, greed forces the issue. I am not at all greedy and the stuff eventually comes to me for the right price.......but I dont try to make a living at it. Things have changed, and not for the better! The difference is, on the Samba, parts are seperated, cataloged, some cleaned, overall a knowledgeable group. Craigslist is another story......unseperated, uncataloged mess. Inflation only drives this number up as Busstom notes, and it will not get any better at all until there is more unemployeed people looking to make a dime instead of a dollar on used parts. It is all connected.