The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!

[Captain Spalding]

In a recent post, bmwloco had this piece of wisdom to offer:

[ztnoo]

Captain,
You pose a most interesting question(s)...."to stockpile or not? And when to start? And which parts receive the highest priority? Or is it a decade or two too early to start up with this type of doom and gloom?"

In my opinion, for those fortunate enough to have some resources available to do so, is that it's never too soon.
I think most realists in this band of brothers, have some sense the game may be changing, at least in the parts arena, especially items such as fenders.
Your acknowledgment of the apparent collapse of Things Unlimited is, I believe a precursor of events to come.

I have reviewed a couple of sources of Thing production numbers to attempt to grasp the scope of what we are discussing.
Two web sites list total production numbers and are in agreement:
http://www.thething.org/production.html
http://www.geocities.com/vwtyp181/181_1-4.htm
Both say Puebla was 64,254, and list total worldwide production at 140,768.
Hanno Spoelstra’s web site claims “In 1973 and 1974 28,930 THINGS (14,197 and 14,733 resp.) were built and exported to the U.S. for sale by Volkswagen of America”.
http://www.geocities.com/vwtyp181/181_2-2.htm

Those aren't big numbers in the realm of automobile production figures.
Samba quotes different figures. Maybe Everett can clarify this discrepancy.
Type 181 "The Thing" (Germany & Mexico): 90,785 See: http://www.thesamba.com/vw/archives/info/prodfigurest1base.php
Flip a coin. I don't know which or if any figures is correct, or even in the ball park.
I do know the numbers are low....and for Mexican produced Things....they sure as hell didn't all get shipped to the US.

I think the available domestic vehicle supply may be shrinking slowly, but oddly enough, because of importation regulations on 25+ year old vehicles, there seems to be a growing number of listings of foreign offerings of 181's.
One only needs to keep tabs on Things listed at The Samba, even occasionally eBay, to see German and Mexican (never exported), even Swedish owned 181's being listed. http://www.thesamba.com/vw/classifieds/detail.php?id=304233
Nicola and Ralf have regularly been listing beautiful, low mileage 181's for several months now. An example: http://www.thesamba.com/vw/classifieds/detail.php?id=270160
So, as far as complete running vehicles, it would seem they are readily available.
Samba regularly lists at least 70 181's for sale, and I've seen that number approach 100 at times. 77 tonight.

As far as parts, be they engines, brakes, suspension components, clips and body parts, wheels (don't forget these), and the little stuff...I say have at it investing in this stuff. We can trade amongst ourselves as the story continues.....for a long, long time.
Attend the next estate sale which lists an 181.
Have some speculative fun!

Regards.
ztnoo

[bmwloco]

Thanks, Capt., for the kind words and aknowlegement.

This same issue is facing the BMW motorcycle world, particularly those bikes known as "airheads", much like our beloved Things.

I have a very good friend who has a business that supports old BMW motorcycles. At a recent rally, even he started to ponder the implications for the future. As the bikes age, so do the riders, now to the point that some are too old to ride or don't anymore.

Younger riders get the bikes, eventually, but without the wisdom of the older riders as to how to adjust the valves, how the electircal system works, and the tricks and knowlege that has been gleaned over the years disappears.

As VW today wants zero, zip to do with air cooled cars (I know this to be true as I work for a VW dealership) BMW wants nothing to do with old airhead bikes.

As such, independent shops have opened up to support the motorcycles, but the number is few. Over time, they'll disappear - victims of retirement, lack of demand, or simple bad business - or whatever.

It happens.

So, we drive our old cars and enjoy them while we can. I ride my old BMWs too and do the same. For now, it's good. I'll worry about it all down the road.

[bljones]

The 181 has a few advantages over other "collectable marques"- as Capt has already pointed out, the demographics are in our favour, more importantly, the wide interchangeable of parts between aircooled models, and most importantly, the scope of distribution. Aircooled VWs were sold worldwide, in huge numbers, which increases the potential future buyer base, something that classic american/british/german iron lacks.
Also, arguably the supply of parts is better now than it was in years past. When i first got involved in VWs back in 1984, there were more mom-and -pop shops, but they were all selling the same stuff, and if you owned anything other than a beetle, forget it. yes, we have seen some screwball activity from one once-prominent vendor, BUT, we have also seen mainstream vendors like CIP1 offer a wider range of 181 specific parts than in the past, and the emergence of companies like ISP West.

All that being said, there is nothing like good used and NOS parts. If i find a stash for cheap, i pick it up. i may not need it now, i may not need it in the future...but somebody will.

I don't think we have reached "peak part" yet...but it never hurts to have spares. you can never have too many parts.
_________________
OG JHC
Author of Original Rant #1
"It stingd itself to dead... now that is control on you"

2%

[bucko]

Interesting points Captain, and as bljones has already pointed out, I'd agree with his points:

1) The engine in our things are basically the same as other air cooled VW's, so parts are still easy to get (internal parts for an easy rebuild)

2) Those Lincoln Zephyrs were not built in the hundreds of thousands like our air cooled VW's.

3) I don't see that many aftermarket parts places for those "one of a kind" cars (like the Lincoln in your example).

4) I see alot more clubs and activity on the air cooled VW scene, therefore the aftermarket will stay in business as long as there is a demand.

Granted, there are those hard to find parts as you mentioned (73 fan box, engine gaurds, etc.), but those don't wear out, so as long as you have them, the easier stuff is still readily available.

I hope to be around in 30 years, but I'll enjoy my military 181 now, and let the next owner (when I'm ready to part with it) worry about how to get parts should they become scarce.

Besides, we have a good band of loyal friends here that help each other out in time of need for those parts we need.

Does your dad/brother still have that Zephyr? I'd love to see a pic of that car.

[ztnoo]

The demographics will tend to favor Things more than they did in The Captain's dad and the Lincoln Zephyrs day.
The baby boom generation is just now approaching the lower end of the senior citizen ranks.
We are the largest segment of the population and have more expendable income than any group has ever had approaching this age segment.
Couple that with longer life expectancy, and I think you have a formula for continued interest and longevity of Things, and other ac VW's as well.
If in fact the Thing is a Zephyr of its day in terms of an item of youthful desire, and I believe the sheer numbers of Boomers will help keep demand high for these vehicles.
Prices are climbing and it will be fascinating to see where the ceiling is.
If demand remains high and I believe it will, I think a (or other) new vender(s) will rise from the ashes to fill the vacuum. That's the way the marketplace works.

But it never hurts to snatch up what you can along the way, otherwise stuff might just disappear to the scrapheap and be forever lost..
Over at Topica within the last two weeks, a Thinger was giving away (5) JK x 14 wheels with tires...for free!!! because of a move to The Keys to live aboard a boat.
No storage room for extra wheels for his land transport.
He said if he couldn't get someone to take them, they were going to the salvage yard!
Some of us begged him to give them to any of his VW friends and acquaintances, just for the sake of keeping them in the family.
Unfortunately, I couldn't devote the time for a 10-12 hour round trip drive to go get them.
I can only hope someone came along and rounded them up or they were given to a VW buddy. But no report as of yet.

Lots of times market offerings aren't ideally timed for individual purchases/individual situations.
Band together with other local Thingers for collective purchases of "parts cars" and other items you can't handle on your own.
Resolve among yourselves to use what you need from such a purchase and sell off what you don't need, or if you have storage capacity, just squirrel it away for a rainy day.
So when opportunity knocks, do your best to save what you can.
It's like bl says: