Priced out of the market?

[1979westie]

This is just a thought that has been kicking around in my head for a while, but I think is worthy of consideration. Do any of you ever worry that you will be priced out of the VW world as busses (or any ACVW) continue to go up in value? Sounds funny, I know, especially because if you are on this site you probably own one already. But I know mine is only going to live for so long before the rust gets so bad that it would be nearly impossible to properly fix.

As I have been poking around lately looking for decent westfalias to use as a body transplant, I can't help but be shocked at the prices. Busses that aren't even that nice are priced around 8K, and if you were interested in a really clean late westy (76-79) they seem to be around $17,000-$20,000...not cheap.

One of the things about the VW world I have always loved is that it was a brand that was within reach of just about any enthusiast who wanted one. So in 1995 as a 16 year old I was able to buy a pretty decent '67 beetle off of lawn mowing money and still have money left over to restore the things that were wrong with it. I doubt that would be the case today.

I suppose $18,000 for a really clean westy really isn't that bad as a collector car when you put it next to some other collector markets like muscle cars, british sportscars, etc...but it really would seem the market is heating up for VW's. I just hope I'll have the bank to pull the trigger on a clean rust free body if ever I find one. Anyone else feel the squeeze?

Eric
_________________
Your car may do 0-60 in under 5 seconds, but can it sleep 4 and cook a meal?

1979 Deluxe Campmobile (quickly rusting away)
33K miles when bought, now at 61K
Proud Member #2 SBS (Stock Bus Society)

[SGKent]

I don't feel priced out but I do feel lucky. We should have come back into the bus market many years ago after selling the 1971 but in the '80's I should have put all my money in Microsoft instead of that boat so "should" means little.

I have noticed a falling off in number of folks posting and certainly in parts for sale. My suspicion is that the number of people who can afford these buses is falling because of price. That is how it is. There are cars out there now from the 80's that are a bargain. Sometime like an old Monte Carlo no one could give away around 2000 but now collectors are restoring those. As these buses rot away yours will be worth more of less depending on whether yours is one of the ones rotting away, and also you will have to keep an eye on it all the time. You can't leave a split in a back or side yard, or it will disappear. Life is full of ying and yang.

[richparker]

I agree that the price of a good bus has increased, but it's gotta be because of the net and sites like this one. People search around and want to sell to the highest bidder.

This is why we, as bus lovers, should try to buy and rescue every bus we can!

Happy hunting
_________________
__________
’71 Westy build
Adventure thread
’65 Deluxe Build
’63 Deluxe Build

[Wasted youth]

Eric to answer your question, just think about the split window bus for a minute.

So, yes, eventually, it will happen here. In my opinion, it already is. I got back into these weird things last spring after selling my 1971 bus that was fairly nice, dry, no rust and had a rebuilt engine in 1998. That was in 2002 (?) and I sold it for what I thought it was worth...$500

I am still dealing with sticker shock on parts. But that's the way it is. In high school in the late 1980's I could have bought a three '67 Chevelles from a junkyard in Perris, Ca for $300 each, but didn't.

[Wildthings]

There are still a lot of $500 and $1000 Type 2's around. Just pour $5000, $10,000, or $20,000 into them and you will (hopefully) have a nice clean dependable ride.

Just because someone asks $18,000 for a $500 bay doesn't mean you have to pay it, but if it is a nicely restore vehicle then that is what you may have to pay.

[skills@eurocarsplus]

well, the 70 deluxe i am working on now will be my last bus that i restore...ever. the only consideration i would make would be a double cab. i don't feel that i would ever be priced out, but dealing with shitty aftermarket parts has made me want to scream.

stuff is just plain expensive. my friend has just announced he will no longer do any vw restorations at his shop due to the cost....he can't keep working with peoples budgets. everyone wants a trailer queen for a maaco price, and when he does that, it usually bites him in the ass. (too bad, because he has had several magazine cars) people don't (and will never) realize what it takes.

sadly, the bay crowd won't pay the few extra dollars to buy stuff from gerson. his stuff is top notch, and usually needs little to no modifications. i have HOURS making other vendors repair panels work.

the handfull of proper bays out there will command top dollar, and that will never change. i don't know how long this can go on. it is getting harder and harder to buy a parts car too...everyone thinks that a old bus = huge coin
_________________

[ned]

There are still deals out there. I am looking at a 69 westfalia for less than a grand. Of course it needs some love. I would never do more than a resussitaion though.
But the after market and cheapo parts is another consideration.
The moment you stop looking is when the deal come around. It just takes cash.

[Mal evolent]

in the 40s and 50s and 60s light airplanes were cheap. my generation grew up reading about $350 Cubs and Silvaires

by the time we grew up and had a few spare bucks, many had crashed or were allowed to deteriorate beyond repair. many of the remaining ones were crated up and sent overseas. the rest are $75,0000 and up.

things are made in quantity, the price of used ones dips to the point where anybody can buy them, they rot in a field for a while, the supply shrinks as people who grew up wanting one reach the point where they can afford one, the market dries up as they all end up in the hands of true believers, and the price goes off the scale

what comes next: you get stick up their derriere prigs who fuss about whether the washers on the tail lights have the correct ratio of nickel to cadmium for early 1974. Split Window Syndrome.

Check Phoenix Craigslist for T2s.
_________________
73 Beetle Baja, Ghia front brakes, Type 3 rear brakes, 2220 ( 94 X 80 ), Weber Progressive, Bosch SVDA, '97 Mustang seats

Baja Bugs for Volkswagen Virgins: Index

[Joey]

[archemitis]

It must depend where you are in the country, how popular they are in your area, time of the year, and how many ballin ass hippie drug dealers around willing to pay 20 grand for some bling! Unfortunately, any state with medical or legal Mj is gonna have spensive ass busses! Partially a joke, but weve all seen it!

I live in Minneapolis, and I bought two repairables, one 78 westfalia complete, but rusty as hell for $400. The other was a basket case 74 westy for $1000. Both were purchased 50 miles out in the sticks, and right before it snowed last year. Both were a steal as far as im concerned, so theyre out there.
I sold an 84 corolla hatchback in 2000 for 200 bucks... doh
My dad tells me the story of selling his 64 corvette for 1500...
Remember when silver was cheap?

[skills@eurocarsplus]

[williamM]

Supply and demand- I would only buy silver when it was below $4.00. Now I'm considering it at $25.

Test drove an XK-120 jag in 69 they wanted $750.00 for it Then bought 2 of them for $4500 in 90's now "you can't touch this"

Vw will continue to go up as long as they are being scooped up and put off the market- only to be seen surrounded by gold braid in a false camping set up.

Much like the jags- only the wealthy will own one- so "Party on" now before no body would dare run one into the wilds for fear of ruining the direction of the screw head slots.
_________________
some days I get up and just sit and think. Some days I just sit.

opinion untempered by fact is ignorance.

Don't step in any!

[Pinetops]

Over the past year or so it seems split bus prices have stabilized and fallen a little and bays just keep going up. Vanagon prices seem to be all over the place.

[WendyArmbuster]

There is a pretty major difference in online prices and the non-online prices. A dude has a pretty nice bus around the corner from me with no visible rust, and nice trim down the sides for $2,500, and I bought a no-rust 72 bus that was running on 3 cylinders due to a dropped exhaust valve for about $400 a few years back, and sold it for the same price when I came to my senses and realized I really only needed one non-running bus in my life.
_________________
Brian Z
1978 Westfalia

[1979westie]

I must admit that despite my love of my bus and many other ACVW's (and golfs, too) there may come a time when I need to make a decision about what direction to take this love affair in...and it likely won't be a bus. I find right now with three dogs and a house to restore (read: trips to the dump, home depot, lumber yards, etc) the bus is very useful and on the rare occasion I get to go camping, a real joy to use. But my true love has always been the beetle, and I've long wanted to pick up another for restoration by me. It is what I enjoy doing. I have seen a few good looking '63 ragtops out there that are someone else's project car gone bust with great rust free bodies for around $3,000 which seems totally fair to me. Maybe I should just start looking for one of those to mothball now while the price is right and keep driving the bus until the wheels fall off. There is only so much money to go around and two nice vintage VW's...that might not be in the cards.
Still, here's to hoping for that nearly rust free t2 for $500...
Eric
_________________
Your car may do 0-60 in under 5 seconds, but can it sleep 4 and cook a meal?

1979 Deluxe Campmobile (quickly rusting away)
33K miles when bought, now at 61K
Proud Member #2 SBS (Stock Bus Society)

[udidwht]

Splits are out...bays are in. Plain & simple. The prices for a good solid bay are showing that. One day (sooner rather than later) a junked out shell of a bay will command top dollar. Don't think so? Look at some of the splits that have gone for '5' figures and they're no where near completely restored.

The bays day has come...

Just seven years ago Nada listed a 72 campmobile at roughly $15,000-$16,000 high. Today...high =$33,000, low= $8,400
_________________
1972 Westy Hardtop/Type-4 2056cc
96mm Biral AA P/C's~7.8:1CR
Headflow Masters New AMC 42x36mm heads w/Porsche swivel adjusters
71mm Stroke
73 Web Cam w/Web solids
Dual 40mm IDF Webers - LM-2 - 47.5 idles/125 mains/190 air corr./F11 tubes/28mm Vents - Float height 10.45mm/Drop 32mm
Bosch SVDA w/Pertronix module (7.5 initial 28 total @ 3400rpm)
Bosch W8CC plugs
Pertronix Flamethrower 40K coil
S&S 4-1 w/Walker QP 17862
3 rib 002 Trans
185R14 Hankook tires

[eche_bus]

I'm not at all a fan of vehicles being priced out of range of average-income restorers. It's a classic case of supply and demand though and the challenge is finding the sweet spot where vehicle prices are reasonable yet parts are available. For the VW bus, split or bay, I think the sweet spot(s) have passed. The upside is that with prices going up on restored buses, maybe some of the impossible-to-find parts will be reproduced.

60's/70's Musclecars were dirt cheap by comparison when they were in their "just a used car" days. For example, a '69 Shelby GT-500 convertible that sold for nearly $6K new could still be had for $3-4K by the late 70s. By the mid-80s however, the car would sell for $20K+. Ridiculous? Sure seemed like it at the time. I remember wanting one, but in '85 that was one heck of a lot of money. By the 90s that car would sell for over $100K. You could buy a house for that kind of money. The punch line - at the peak of Musclecar values, the car was going for over $200K.

You could argue that all this just made a lot of rich guys richer. But it had a side effect. This and other waaaay expensive cars had cheaper brethren. And those cheaper brethren shared quite a few of the same parts. Today, a guy with one of those other cars can buy parts that were gone for availability for at least two decades. Are those parts cheap? Not so much. But ... historically those parts had been "priceless".

The VW community needs a cash injection, and needs it badly. There are way too many parts completely unavailable, with very, very few quality reproducers stepping up to the plate.

One more thing. It seems like a foreign or even heretical concept to raise here, but there's a little thing called "return on investment". Keeping this in mind as you're restoring/driving your old bus doesn't make a person a soul-less profiteer. As much as sheer enjoyment is some compensation for the hours and hours of work involved, there's a sane limit. Prices on rare parts and labor (not everyone can paint their own bus or rebuild the engine/transmission) get higher all the time. Are these to become nothing but sink-holes to pour time and money into or is there some hope of getting some of it back if it comes time to sell? Seems better to see prices on vehicles rise and see your money and time as somewhat of an investment.

It's not all about what you pay. It's what you get for your money. Cheap is not the same as a good value.

[Joey]

18 years ago I paid $750 for my '74 bus and I can easily get $6k for it right now and it needs a bit of rust repair. The days of buying a running bus for under a grand are definitely long gone.

There are a few cheap ones out there being sold by the owner who don't know what they have and think "it's just and old VW". But now with the internet - ebay, Craigslist, Kijiji, etc. - sellers can look up what similar vehicles are selling for and set their pricing from that.
_________________
Joey

‘60 Kombi - '74 Bus - '79 Panel - '65 Beetle

[chachi]

i have definitely been priced out of the split market, and it was long my dream to own one. but recently i've decided i'm okay with this. recent threds here have convinced me that a bay has most of the mojo and a lot more mod cons than a split. they seem a lot more useable. plus i feel like the cheap bay was my era, and this is the bus i was meant to have. if i wasn't a bay owner right now, and i was running some other older (i hate to say "classic") car it would just be what's fun and cheap now. bays were fun and cheap when i bought a bunch of them and i've loved driving them, but it could have been something else. i'm glad i don't have to figure out what that is.
_________________
'74 transporter panel
'91 vanagon carat NAHT

[scrivyscriv]

I've been thinking the same thing lately, mostly because I've been parts searching for my 72. Everyone with a 72 likes to post "Rare 72-only parts!" and charge out the hole for them. Like a blinker switch.
Just makes me wonder how long the rust-free cars will be rust free.. How long MY bus will be rust free, once I'm done rustoring it! That thought alone has completely changed how I've approached my rustoration - realizing that I can still get parts at reasonable prices, but what about ten years from now? Have to approach a resto/repair now from the point of view that the parts I install now may not ever be available again when I need them, or in my price range - so go big or go home.

Heck just look at the mechanical side of it. You can still get T1 parts all day long, but how about finding good machine shop work? Heads only hold up so long, and parts will only be made or available for so long, too. It just takes one valve supplier, one gasket maker, one bearing mfr, to say "This line isn't profitable, so we're stopping production of it."

I bought my 72 bus last year with all the normal New York rust for $600, with a 002 transmission and a locked up 1700. Drove 350 miles to trailer it home, and I couldn't touch any other bus for less than $1,000; didn't have the money up front for a running bus, at $1,500-$2k min.
_________________
Robert in Memphis
Dünkelgrügen 1967 Java Green bug thread
Engine rebuild thread
If you're ever in the Memphis area, you are welcome to stop by for advice and help.