Priced out of the market?

[notchboy]

[SGKent]

add up every penny you put into it, figure in the trip to go get it, figure in your time, adjust for inflation, and how much do you have in it?
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“Most people don’t know what they’re doing, and a lot of them are really good at it.” - George Carlin

[notchboy]

[SGKent]

Never said it wasn't a good source for parts . Your cars are very nice, and I would guess you have a small fortune in them. Kudos to you.
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“Most people don’t know what they’re doing, and a lot of them are really good at it.” - George Carlin

[Abscate]

looking back at this thread - if people feel priced out because you think shipping from coast to coast is expensive, you are in the wrong hobby.

Would you give up your cable TV bill for a year to bring your Bus home?

Asked and answered.
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[melville]

[heimlich]

[ccowx]

Looking back over this thread has been interesting. I especially liked that it covers a couple of years, since this is a moving target and seeing it developed is interesting.

I have gone through this once already. I have an old 60's Musclecar, purchased in my misspent youth. It is a 1970 AMC Javelin SST 390 4 speed car and it has all of the original components still with it. Engine, interior, trans, etc. Even the old ram air stuff is in place. I had people back in the day telling me to use it as a parts car for an AMX all the time! Now it is a 25k+ car. Nowadays no one is telling anyone to scrap a correct original big block musclecar!

It is funny, I think AMC in particular is a good example because they are also a brand that started out as the "affordable" alternative. Now that they have become a bit more rare and of interest in the collector world, the old school guys that used to buy parts for $25 are shocked silly that they are being asked to pay $200. Don't ask what the chrome 390 valve covers that were given to me free from a friends scrap heap go for these days. The $25 I paid for a set of rally pack gauges is not happening now for less than $600 bucks.

In the case of my ACVW interests, I have had 4 bays, all 1970 models. My first one cost me $400, the next $600 and the third(a nearly rust free Westy) was about $5k. I thought that was pricey in 2009.

Imagine my surprise when the Westy rusted out and I went looking for a new one. Suddenly I am looking at $8000+ for an unmodified early bay! I am fortunate that I have the old one for parts and it is complete except for the biodegradable body parts, so I am in pretty good shape there. I ended up having to buy a shell for $1600 and ship it to me in the Yukon for another $3500. Now I will be into it for $4500+ and I have another $5k to go in paint and soft parts before I can even drive it.

Interestingly, the numbers work out. I don't intend to sell it anytime soon, so it is irrelevant, but you do like to know you are not wasting money. My cost will be a bit over $10 to be road worthy, however, I estimate that it's value will be $15K+ when done.

Time marches on! There is a cycle for all collectibles, related to scarcity, nostalgia(tied to when the interested demographic dies off!) and some other factors. The part we don't want to talk about is that in about 20 years or so, the value of these things will drop off again, with the exception of the really, really scarce and desireable ones. Those can be found at Pebble Beach!

Look at the cars of the thirties and earlier. 20 years ago a model T was a blue chip car. Now they are going for songs because no one wants to drive them regularly because they are too fussy(sound familiar?). Duesdenburgs will always be worth serious money but unless it is rare enough to interest the caviar and liqueur set, it becomes hot rod fodder or scrap. With musclecars, in the next 10-20 years a regular GTO will be hot rod fodder, much like the less desirable cars of the golden age. A RA IV Judge convertible will always have money, but the 68,000 regular Goats will be junk.

Taking the same look at VW's, a regular beetle will be a kids toy or junk in about 20 years, but a Hubmobile will be pricey. My Westy will be scrap too, but a 23 window will be another story.

The cycle of life, automotive style!

Chris

PS: pardon the long ramble, but winter in the Yukon is time to work on cars and navel gaze!

[Spike0180]

well put.
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Brutis Patches Izabich: 1970 VW Transporter - 1776cc DP
Current State: Projects never truly end...
Location: Grosse Pointe, Michigan
Other cars: 2003 F150, 2003 Jetta GLI vr6-6sp

Sambastic: adj; the quality of being nit picky, elitist, expecting everyone to do things the way they believe is best with no regard to situation, "sambastic"

[SGKent]

well put. I don't see this market living for a long time. Recently I started selling off some spare parts that I had collected. Some parts, that are made of unobtainium sold rather quickly at value. The other new parts, which are still available either new or as repops, were priced well under market, some that are maintenance & expendable parts - meaning they have a useable life span once installed were offered at give away prices - and no one was interested. As an example - a new quality t4 engine seal is typically between $40 and $55 most places ~ I offered one that was a high quality spare for $25 - half what it cost to buy. Finally took it off the market and will either stash it or trash it. If people don't have interest or money to buy things that will go bad on their buses, it doesn't say much for the future of the average bus out there. In the end the buses that were priced out of the market will end up scrapped like the ones in the photo, and crushed like 10's of thousands were around 2005 when the market was such that bus owners were offering $1 for a part that cost $50 in labor to remove. Wrecking yards said "enough!" and crushed their inventory. It is also why repop parts are so cheap. Not enough people will pay for quality. The nice buses will be the only ones left in the end and they will bring good money. Right now many youth want a bus but the cost in time and money ends up too much in many cases. I guess that means the average Joe looking for a cheap bus is already priced out of the market. I see many of those buses being driven 2 - 3 years at the most then scrapped when the engines - trans die. Already some of the parts needed to restore motors and trans are NLA. That only drives up prices on what is left.

It is not just income but attitude too. There are many 25 year olds I know just out of college who are making $60,000 - $80,000 a year so it is hard to believe money isn't available if someone wants to work. But there are only so many of those folks who want VW buses - some want other toys.
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“Most people don’t know what they’re doing, and a lot of them are really good at it.” - George Carlin

[wcfvw69]

IDK, in my mind I'm not looking 20 years down the road and worrying about what any of my VW's may will be worth or where the hobby will be. I'm living in the moment. I'm enjoying the hell out of the moment and the VW's too! It's a great hobby that keeps my mind busy. Driving them brings me happiness and a connection to my past and to now deceased family members. I enjoy the smiles from folks on the road. I like hearing an old timers VW stories from the 60's or 70's when they walk up to me at a gas station.

If anyone buys a VW and is worrying about getting their investment back from the restoration of it down the road, they should stop now. I don't look at my VW's as an investment that will continue to appreciate in value. If that happens, well great. I view them as my toys and the money is spent and gone.

I totally agree that there will be a peak high value reached for any model VW. And then it will fall for all the reasons mentioned all ready.
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[heimlich]

Drive it and enjoy.

I'd love to have a bus but when I can buy a Beetle and have it running for less than 2k then I am content. Plus I've never driven a VW Bus but they sure look neat. I wouldn't mind having a flat bed to haul things around with. I know there are those of you who would gawk at that but I use my cars for every day things. I just enjoy driving them.
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[SGKent]

[notchboy]

Rolling 401 K for me. Balance the now enjoyment with craze meeting top $ selling point. Then Ill sell. I love them but when us 40 somethings are 80 the ACVW will go the way of the Model T crowd and enthusiasm. Ill sell before then.

Why do you think I like putting things on that no ones see's? Increase the value. Stuart just put in his limited slip diff out of Maisy. Bus drives even better - more value at selling time

I plan on enjoying it for as long as possible. Maybe move to Kona and enjoy it there. Time and as stated above - if another important life moment comes up - Im glad to have it to cash in on.
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[SGKent]

more like a rolling 401K without the recapture and subsequent taxes.

A second home deduction can be claimed from what I understand if an RV has sleeping, bathroom and kitchen facilities - so some Westphalia's might even give some write off now. see publication below and your tax person.



https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p936.pdf




.
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“Most people don’t know what they’re doing, and a lot of them are really good at it.” - George Carlin

[heimlich]

Normally that would not be the case since cars depreciate. It's funny how that works out.
_________________
www.vwnos.com [email protected]
Classic Brands. Classic Quality.
Not all parts are made the same. NOS OE/OEM parts made mainly in West Germany, Early Germany, and Early Brazil are where VW produced the best quality parts and best fitting products.
5% Off your order with coupon code: 5%OFF
Restored Distributors Available (<--Click here)

[orwell84]

[Abscate]

If you Are under 30 putting 20k into a toy is a foolish financial move costing you about half of your needed money for retirement.
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[wcfvw69]

[Abscate]

Toys hit a 30k ceiling for most of the market so don't think of them like appreciating assets.
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