A bay flippers caution

[SGKent]

Have been watching the value of buses for sometime. The cost to restore one has constantly gone up, making the value after one is restored greater. But that only holds true if there are enough buyers with that much money in their pockets to buy the number of buses available. In the last year we see a constant "hi I found a bus..." and when one looks at the number of available buses cross country there are now oodles of them - more than I have seen in 15 - 20 years. In fact there are 55 restored buses for sale in Samba classifieds. Add to that those on CL and Ebay, auctions, and other sources that is maybe 100 restored buses for sale right now - proving supply has grown faster than available buyers. Those who are restoring one to keep it, drive it, and don't care about what it is worth because they don't plan to sell it won't care if their bus is worth what they put into it. Maybe it will be worth what they paid by the time they want to sell it in 5 - 15 years. On the other hand, if you are a flipper, and are looking at yesterday's value of buses and what you can make, be aware that prices are falling because there are too many buses right now. It might be worth your time to keep your waiting to be restored bus stored in your garage and wait until the surplus supply falls. Find the hard to find parts but don't screw yourself by investing a lot of money you might not get back. There are just too many buses now, and too many custom and collector cars. Hagerty remarked a few weeks ago that almost every garage in the USA has a collector car in it these days because so many have come out of garages, barns, sheds, side yards, and fields.
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“Most people don’t know what they’re doing, and a lot of them are really good at it.” - George Carlin

[skills@eurocarsplus]

I think you are right....

we went to the Barret Jackson auction at moheagan sun and honestly, there were soooo many cars I commented to my wife "you couldn't pull it out of the woods for free and build that for (enter selling price)"

from decent impala's at sub 20K selling prices to corvairs for 8-10K....all REALLY nice, presentable cars too. I have decided that it's easier to let the seller take a bath in it, and know I will put 3-5K into it to make it "mine"

everyone's love affair with the bus is often dashed when a noob buys one for top dollar and needs a 10K engine overhaul right from the gitgo....

it's sad to see happen to people that buy with emotion, not common sense. it's crazy to see a 20K+ bus that needs major work right out of the gate. 1/2 of these flipper busses are abortions that have a shine to them and some seat covers thrown on....yet people tend to buy them
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[TomWesty]

I was looking at an original running splitty double cab with th intention of putting a little work into it and flipping it. After looking at prices, I decided I would probably insult the owner if I told him what I would have to buy it for to make a reasonable profit. I'll leave it for someone else...
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If you haven't bled on them, you haven't worked on them.
Visit: www.tomcoryell.com and check out my music!

[SGKent]

[skills@eurocarsplus]

you can do that now...

https://www.google.com/#q=classic+car+financing


dollar down, chase me around....

another thing adding insult to injury is the "economy sucks" and we are in another election cycle. most (smart) people aren't spending much, and stashing cash in the good old root cellar
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[Xevin]

My head is swimming with thoughts on this topic. I will try and conjure up something articulate and worthy to add when I decompress from my long ass work day. So I'm taking my rusty bus for a spin to forget about work. It puts a smile on my face when I drive him. He's crusty, smells like a 70s VW, manual trans, slow, and I don't have to worry about dings cause it's not worth a new car but priceless to me. Vanity is not high on my list. I prefer understated, impractical fun. Now get out there folks and drive!
Ah yes. The topic is "Bay Flippers Caution". Especially ones that sell museum quality for big bucks that an owner now needs to put another 2k into working proper for a nice weekend out with the family.


Link

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Keep on Busin'

[crukab]

Yep, Barret Jackoffson has helped KILL the Bus flipping arena, It took waaaaay to long to sell off my latest Split that was for sale. Everyone is now an expert on the value of any Bus, Bay, Split, Vanagoon ect. It's going to be a while before I'm stocking Bays in the back feild ....
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Tom

My Pops:
http://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=604100&highlight=
I know you will always be with me, rest in peace with no more pain. 8/13/14.....

In the yard right now:
'51 Dodge 5 window truck
'65 Bug
'66 Singlecab
'82 Rabbit Truck Diesel from CALI
'86 Doublecab W/T
'91 Vanagon carat/wolfsbrg.Tiico
'88 Dodge Ram pickup
'11 Jetta Wagon

[sjbartnik]

Good, let the flippers die off.
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1965 Volkswagen 1500 Variant S
2000 Kawasaki W650

[oscarsnapkin]

I looked at a '73 Thing a few years back. It was pretty beat, but ran well and could fairly easily be made into a driver. A few days after I looked at the car I called the seller to make an offer based on his selling price. He proceeded to tell me how (since our initial meeting) an Acapulco Thing had just sold at auction for almost $50,000, and he had raised his asking price. Needless to say I was not able to make a deal with him. The internet must play a role in these inflated prices as well. People hear stories about someone selling some worthless crap on ebay for an exorbitant price and they suddenly think everything they own is worth a fortune.
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- 1977 CEI Sunroof Bus 2.0L F.I. Hydraulic Lifters
- 1973 Thing

"It’s so easy to laugh, it’s so easy to hate, it takes strength to be gentle and kind."

[Lil Lulu]

"Flippers" have only slit their own throats. Blind greed is it's own reward.
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'65 Beetle "Lil' Lulu"- Ruby Red
1600 stock from '71 bus

'72 Deluxe - Niagara Blue w/pastelwiess Camper Special 2L dual 40 Webers 002

'74 Hightop Weekender "Dixie" 1800 34 Del singles

[bwaz]

Probably better in the whines, but on topic.
http://www.thesamba.com/vw/classifieds/detail.php?id=1939786

[skills@eurocarsplus]

^^^^^

that's the point I was trying to make earlier.......

you couldn't build that bus for 27K....if it's original (looks it) and is as nice as they describe, I think that bus is about 1500-2K more than I would pay...but it's a clean survivor....

to put it another way....

your average bus that needs rockers, rear corners, trays, windshield repair, floor and dog leg work will run you 3-5K in metal/materials alone....now add 60-80 hours of work just in rust repair at say 60/hr...4,800 in labor plus parts, so call it 7-9k in just rust work...

and say you bought the bus for 2-5k...now you have a 14K bus that still needs paint, seals etc....plus time. you'd never put that bus together for 10k and have it look like the one pictured....

until people have lived thru a restoration of anything, not just a car, you will quickly realize buying the best example up front puts you light years ahead...and the bonus is that bus pictured is a survivor....they will always command more from the get go...
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[Manfred58sc]

The market responds quicker to a decent driver quality Bus. Runs,stops,electrical works,mostly complete. Raise the price and the expectations will follow. I don't think 100 Bus's is over exposure in a global market. I do think those in the market may want certain colors,camper set ups etc. So there are buyers that don't see exactly what they want, but when the right one comes along (and its close by!!) they will buy. I have not heard much complaint from larger sellers and I still get offers on my Bus's regularly. The buyers of top quality Bus's have many toys to chose from as well.....
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Fat chick owner/operator

[Xevin]

I do not necessarily disagree with the comments above. However this is my observation of the Bay market in the Pacific Northwest.

I'm of the opinion the market for Bays is healthy. I live in a very buscentric
part of the country where bay buses of all conditions run free all over town. It's not so much a fad as it is a very DIY community that appreciates ACVWs for what they are. West Coast Samba is up the road and most the buses he sells go out of state for big money.

The popularity and fair market value of buses in other regions I can not speak to. But the fact that I see more and more Bay window buses being used in the marketing of Beer, clothing, wine, REI, lottery tickets, Bars, coffee shops, DJ booths and etc. tells me there's something going on or they would not use Bays to pimp their products. I manage a business that has a lot of 17 to 25 year olds on staff and love my bus. I have a high school girl on staff that drives a 69 bug. I get young adults everyday that tell me they want a bus. And again this is a city where Bays are plentiful and not so unique.
My point being is, there are a lot of young adults who dig these bays. Advertisers know this and market their products using bays. I speculate some of these kids will buy one someday 5-10 years from now for 20k-30k and not think twice about it. Just like muscle cars and 64 Impala low riders in the 90s. Remember when Japan was buying all the 60s low riders for big money? Similar to what Europe is doing with bays. Sure the muscle car biz has had its highs and lows. I get that. I think the Bay Window market is still in an upswing world wide. It's still a better value (fun factor) then Splitties and Vanagons. Yes I realize good parts are getting tough. Hopefully the new breed of bay bus owners will not be so cheap and business will produce better parts and engine swaps.
Look at what the 30 year olds spend on Vanagon parts and subie swaps. Steve mentioned the that he has seen more restored buses then then he can remember for sale. Is there a lot of restored Bays for sale because a lack of interest and over pricing? Or has the popularity grown to a point that Bays are worth restoring and making profit?
Only time will tell?
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Keep on Busin'

[SGKent]

barrett jackson tonight. 73 modded station wagon T4 bus, $45K. Not anything I would be even interested in owning. The mods were purely bling and not function. Holy wow. $45K sold price.

I remember when I was flamed by many here suggesting a bay could be worth $30K.
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“Most people don’t know what they’re doing, and a lot of them are really good at it.” - George Carlin

[Abscate]

BZj doesn’t establish market value, as the buyers are cash rich wankers. I’ll bet most BJ purchases are held then dumped in a few years for a fraction of what was paid
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.ssS!

[71whitewesty]

Since the thread was started I haven't noticed any decline in Bus values.
Flippers are still flipping too.
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71 Westy 1600 DP, all stock Bus 1
1970's Snow Trac 1600 SP (sold 12/2016)
1968 Tucker sno cat, sold 2021
1969 Tucker Sno cat 542
2017 VW Alltrac
71 tin top stock 1600 DP (project but runs)
Twin 71 White Westy, Bus 2, that I pulled from a 15 year slumber in a dry eastern WA field in 2015.
1966 Sundial Camper "Boomer"

[crukab]

For a good laugh, look at the asking prices for Bay Buses on FB marketplace, delusional sellers all over the place, and it's not just VW buses, any older trucks, cars ect.
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Tom

My Pops:
http://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=604100&highlight=
I know you will always be with me, rest in peace with no more pain. 8/13/14.....

In the yard right now:
'51 Dodge 5 window truck
'65 Bug
'66 Singlecab
'82 Rabbit Truck Diesel from CALI
'86 Doublecab W/T
'91 Vanagon carat/wolfsbrg.Tiico
'88 Dodge Ram pickup
'11 Jetta Wagon

[blue72beetle]

Ignorant sellers.
Ignorant auction house.
Ignorant bidders.

If you just care about money, who cares about originality. Just make it flashy.

OG only matters to enthusiasts like us.

World keeps going around.
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-Andy-
-1970 Ghia-
-1971 Bus 1776 Microsquirt EFI-

[SGKent]

willing seller,willing buyer establishes market value, nothing else. There are always buyers below market value looking for a deal or flip when inflation is going like it is.
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“Most people don’t know what they’re doing, and a lot of them are really good at it.” - George Carlin