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Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data?
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otherbeach
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 4:15 pm    Post subject: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

Has anyone collected price history for Type 2s, either specific to this Forum's 1955-1967 subject, or in general on all Type 2s? Opinions are fine, but a time-series dataset would be great.

The history might come from your own notes on Classified sales or Ebay or other searches.

Has anyone noticed clear and quantifiable trends in seasonal pricing?

Has anyone noted the typical spread between purchase and ask?

Let me state some caveats. I recognize there is an official forum topic for whine about prices. That isnt where I want to go here.

Various TheSamba.com Forum searches and keyword searches did not get me anything current or on this specific question.

I recognize that there are seasonal pricing differences and that prices go up or down in some seasons. Examples and/or hard data would be nice.

As a bit of background I did this myself on a type of collector car that I was following before purchasing one and used several types of statistical analysis on my data then.
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oldthingguy
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 7:43 pm    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

I do know that they keep rising since I entered the VW world 40 years ago. I don't have enough patience to graph the trends, if I like a car I will do a little homework and then start looking. If I take too long I get priced out of the market, happened to me awhile back with 912's. In the course of a year they rose approx. 50% - my bad.
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Clara Premium Member
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:37 pm    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

There are a number of models (seven or more)
differences between years
and then condition. Lots of variable to compare.

If you want to figure out what to pay for a bus, or what to ask, watch the classifieds for a while to get an idea of current prices.

do some analysis and let us know what you find!
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 10:07 pm    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

I haven't kept track but my opinion is that cars sell for more in Spring/Summer as there is more demand at that time.
People want to buy something to use during times of the year that you can drive.
This goes for all types of collector cars.

Asking price vs. Actual sales price:
This is very hard to know.
1. People lie about pricing.
2. Sales price often depends on asking price.
I've bought cars for WAY less than asking and I've paid full price even when it was top dollar at the time.
I can't speak to averages.

If we are talking about general pricing, prices have pretty much risen non-stop for many years.
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Malokin Martin
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 13, 2016 6:48 am    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

I feel the pricing of VW's is a lot like buying a motorcycle: When the weather gets bad, most casual buyers (the bulk of buyers) forget them.

It's likely pretty standard for any summer item: November/December/January are the sweet spots.

Preferably about a week before the end of the month (end of paycheck), just before a major holiday and right before tax season.
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otherbeach
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 13, 2016 3:57 pm    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

Thanks to TheSamba's RSS feed, there is a XML datasource I can use from the Classified part of the site.

Unfortunately sellers provide a wide variety of price formats. Some formats say $0000 some say $0000.00 ...some say $0K.

Years and models are also embedded in the description and I havent extracted them yet.

So answering my own question for today anyway

But this is what I got for today's listing (USA Type 2 in this Forum only).
Code:

Mean        Std Dev   Min    Maximum   Mode  Range   N
28737.75   24081.84   0   130000   15000   130000   184
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Hokie87
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 13, 2016 5:11 pm    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

Your stats are based on asking price data rather than actual sale data.

As Everett mentioned, there is often a big difference. Appraisers use actual sale data but I'm not sure where they get it...DMV data, tax records...Brandon?
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otherbeach
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 13, 2016 5:57 pm    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

Agreed, but TheSamba asking prices are the only data available. I havent done my Ebay analysis with sold prices yet.
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otherbeach
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 14, 2016 7:09 am    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

otherbeach wrote:
Agreed, but TheSamba asking prices are the only data available. I havent done my Ebay analysis with sold prices yet.


I think that I will continue with my TheSamba classified analysis. Ebay does not provide easily accessible historic data. I can parse Ebay, but that takes awhile.

Here is just one example of a "sold" and doesnt seem great to me.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Volkswagen-Bus-Vanagon-21-...2183285773

In general there isnt much "sold" data on Ebay...yes some, but not lots.
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otherbeach
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2016 2:43 pm    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

More Analysis from 15Oct16
Code:

                                                           Summary Tables                       16:36 Saturday, October 15, 2016   1

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    |                               |                                          Model                                           |
    |                               |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
    |                               |                Camper                |                Deluxe                |            |
    |                               |--------------------------------------+--------------------------------------| Double Cab |
    |                               |            |            |  askprice  |            |            |  askprice  |------------|
    |                               |  askprice  |  askprice  |------------|  askprice  |  askprice  |------------|  askprice  |
    |                               |------------+------------|  Standard  |------------+------------|  Standard  |------------|
    |                               |  Maximum   |  Average   | Deviation  |  Maximum   |  Average   | Deviation  |  Maximum   |
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |yearis                         |            |            |            |            |            |            |            |
    |-------------------------------|            |            |            |            |            |            |            |
    |                               |   104000.00|    53997.50|    70714.21|    76900.00|    45966.67|    29998.39|        0.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1953                           |           .|           .|           .|   130000.00|   130000.00|           .|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1954                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1955                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1956                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1957                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1958                           |           .|           .|           .|    46000.00|    46000.00|           .|    75000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1959                           |           .|           .|           .|   149975.00|   149975.00|           .|    39950.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1960                           |           .|           .|           .|    29000.00|    29000.00|           .|    49995.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1961                           |    65000.00|    52500.00|    17677.67|    58000.00|    58000.00|           .|   195000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1962                           |    13000.00|    10750.00|     2958.04|   119900.00|    66466.67|    47396.24|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1963                           |    32500.00|    18750.00|    19445.44|    76000.00|    76000.00|           .|    68000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1964                           |    49500.00|    23725.00|    19454.28|   139000.00|    81375.00|    56349.17|    68000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1965                           |    65000.00|    35373.75|    23626.34|    90000.00|    40375.00|    35396.27|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1966                           |    35000.00|    18333.33|    14742.23|    70000.00|    54750.00|    21566.76|    41000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1967                           |   130000.00|    37725.00|    41024.76|           .|           .|           .|    35000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1969                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |Total                          |   130000.00|    30575.52|    30350.37|   149975.00|    64671.59|    42602.26|   195000.00|
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    (Continued)
                                                           Summary Tables                       16:36 Saturday, October 15, 2016   2

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    |                               |                                          Model                                           |
    |                               |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
    |                               |       Double Cab        |                Kombi                 |                         |
    |                               |-------------------------+--------------------------------------|          Other          |
    |                               |            |  askprice  |            |            |  askprice  |-------------------------|
    |                               |  askprice  |------------|  askprice  |  askprice  |------------|  askprice  |  askprice  |
    |                               |------------|  Standard  |------------+------------|  Standard  |------------+------------|
    |                               |  Average   | Deviation  |  Maximum   |  Average   | Deviation  |  Maximum   |  Average   |
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |yearis                         |            |            |            |            |            |            |            |
    |-------------------------------|            |            |            |            |            |            |            |
    |                               |        0.00|           .|    45000.00|    31820.00|    10593.49|    95000.00|    30637.95|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1953                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|     6000.00|     6000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1954                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1955                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|    74000.00|    74000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1956                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|   170000.00|   170000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1957                           |           .|           .|    20500.00|    20500.00|           .|           .|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1958                           |    75000.00|           .|           .|           .|           .|    45000.00|    30998.33|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1959                           |    28725.00|    15874.55|    78000.00|    49000.00|    41012.19|    24500.00|    19000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1960                           |    49995.00|           .|    50000.00|    50000.00|           .|   165000.00|    59491.67|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1961                           |    84750.00|    74922.74|           .|           .|           .|    37000.00|    20583.33|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1962                           |           .|           .|    56000.00|    29375.00|    37653.44|    71000.00|    28175.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1963                           |    39642.71|    22244.51|     6750.00|     6750.00|           .|    90000.00|    36460.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1964                           |    46500.00|    30405.59|    40000.00|    40000.00|           .|   110000.00|    34615.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1965                           |           .|           .|    18500.00|    11500.00|     9899.49|    55000.00|    22555.29|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1966                           |    37000.00|     5656.85|    22000.00|    22000.00|           .|    85000.00|    27382.92|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1967                           |    25766.67|    14295.57|           .|           .|           .|    65000.00|    27061.75|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1969                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|    45000.00|    26850.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |Total                          |    45358.43|    38533.66|    78000.00|    29881.25|    20437.06|   170000.00|    32228.12|
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    (Continued)
                                                           Summary Tables                       16:36 Saturday, October 15, 2016   3

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    |                               |                                          Model                                           |
    |                               |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
    |                               |   Other    |                Panel                 |              Single Cab              |
    |                               |------------+--------------------------------------+--------------------------------------|
    |                               |  askprice  |            |            |  askprice  |            |            |  askprice  |
    |                               |------------|  askprice  |  askprice  |------------|  askprice  |  askprice  |------------|
    |                               |  Standard  |------------+------------|  Standard  |------------+------------|  Standard  |
    |                               | Deviation  |  Maximum   |  Average   | Deviation  |  Maximum   |  Average   | Deviation  |
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |yearis                         |            |            |            |            |            |            |            |
    |-------------------------------|            |            |            |            |            |            |            |
    |                               |    25990.94|    20000.00|    15000.00|     6245.00|    25000.00|    17500.00|     7593.86|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1953                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1954                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|    60000.00|    60000.00|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1955                           |           .|    74500.00|    74500.00|           .|           .|           .|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1956                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|    14500.00|    14500.00|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1957                           |           .|    65000.00|    32166.67|    28444.39|    39500.00|    39500.00|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1958                           |    20077.72|    27000.00|    16833.33|    12065.79|           .|           .|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1959                           |     7778.17|    29500.00|    18750.00|     9450.53|    27000.00|    19750.00|    10253.05|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1960                           |    56014.20|    25000.00|    14125.00|     8488.96|    19000.00|    17500.00|     2121.32|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1961                           |    16132.91|    25000.00|    16495.00|     7703.74|    16500.00|    16500.00|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1962                           |    32238.32|    70000.00|    36750.00|    47022.60|    17500.00|    12550.00|     4687.93|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1963                           |    38621.34|    14900.00|    14900.00|           .|   135000.00|    55750.00|    55180.76|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1964                           |    34740.29|    10500.00|    10500.00|           .|     4800.00|     4800.00|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1965                           |    13128.62|    43000.00|    28750.00|    20152.54|           .|           .|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1966                           |    24379.91|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1967                           |    20056.55|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1969                           |    25667.98|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |Total                          |    31491.10|    74500.00|    22505.19|    19477.63|   135000.00|    26333.33|    28518.98|
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    (Continued)
                                                           Summary Tables                       16:36 Saturday, October 15, 2016   4

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    |                               |                                    Model                                    |            |
    |                               |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|            |
    |                               |               Standard               |              Walk Thru               |            |
    |                               |--------------------------------------+--------------------------------------|   Total    |
    |                               |            |            |  askprice  |            |            |  askprice  |------------|
    |                               |  askprice  |  askprice  |------------|  askprice  |  askprice  |------------|  askprice  |
    |                               |------------+------------|  Standard  |------------+------------|  Standard  |------------|
    |                               |  Maximum   |  Average   | Deviation  |  Maximum   |  Average   | Deviation  |  Maximum   |
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |yearis                         |            |            |            |            |            |            |            |
    |-------------------------------|            |            |            |            |            |            |            |
    |                               |    21500.00|    17750.00|     5303.30|    36000.00|    21175.00|    10713.97|   104000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1953                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|   130000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1954                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|    60000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1955                           |    55000.00|    55000.00|           .|           .|           .|           .|    74500.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1956                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|   170000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1957                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|    65000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1958                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|    75000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1959                           |           .|           .|           .|    27995.00|    27995.00|           .|   149975.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1960                           |           .|           .|           .|    24500.00|    24500.00|           .|   165000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1961                           |           .|           .|           .|    21999.00|    21999.00|           .|   195000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1962                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|   119900.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1963                           |           .|           .|           .|    22000.00|    22000.00|           .|   135000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1964                           |           .|           .|           .|    75000.00|    60750.00|    20152.54|   139000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1965                           |    27000.00|    17500.00|    10331.99|    39900.00|    17892.86|    14985.50|    90000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1966                           |    15500.00|    15500.00|           .|   105000.00|    46605.56|    32583.95|   105000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1967                           |           .|           .|           .|    69000.00|    33722.11|    23092.52|   130000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |1969                           |           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|           .|    45000.00|
    |-------------------------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------|
    |Total                          |    55000.00|    22642.86|    15635.73|   105000.00|    32882.66|    24593.32|   195000.00|
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    (Continued)
                                                           Summary Tables                       16:36 Saturday, October 15, 2016   5

                                    -----------------------------------------------------------
                                    |                               |          Total          |
                                    |                               |-------------------------|
                                    |                               |            |  askprice  |
                                    |                               |  askprice  |------------|
                                    |                               |------------|  Standard  |
                                    |                               |  Average   | Deviation  |
                                    |-------------------------------+------------+------------|
                                    |yearis                         |            |            |
                                    |-------------------------------|            |            |
                                    |                               |    28570.22|    24366.86|
                                    |-------------------------------+------------+------------|
                                    |1953                           |    68000.00|    87681.24|
                                    |-------------------------------+------------+------------|
                                    |1954                           |    60000.00|           .|
                                    |-------------------------------+------------+------------|
                                    |1955                           |    67833.33|    11116.80|
                                    |-------------------------------+------------+------------|
                                    |1956                           |    92250.00|   109955.10|
                                    |-------------------------------+------------+------------|
                                    |1957                           |    31300.00|    21238.53|
                                    |-------------------------------+------------+------------|
                                    |1958                           |    33061.88|    23380.30|
                                    |-------------------------------+------------+------------|
                                    |1959                           |    35936.15|    38487.27|
                                    |-------------------------------+------------+------------|
                                    |1960                           |    37621.56|    38599.99|
                                    |-------------------------------+------------+------------|
                                    |1961                           |    43448.93|    46233.16|
                                    |-------------------------------+------------+------------|
                                    |1962                           |    28292.11|    31685.38|
                                    |-------------------------------+------------+------------|
                                    |1963                           |    38179.50|    33586.99|
                                    |-------------------------------+------------+------------|
                                    |1964                           |    41454.00|    37667.86|
                                    |-------------------------------+------------+------------|
                                    |1965                           |    24361.64|    18592.61|
                                    |-------------------------------+------------+------------|
                                    |1966                           |    34134.83|    26274.66|
                                    |-------------------------------+------------+------------|
                                    |1967                           |    32110.46|    27129.40|
                                    |-------------------------------+------------+------------|
                                    |1969                           |    26850.00|    25667.98|
                                    |-------------------------------+------------+------------|
                                    |Total                          |    34094.43|    31682.67|
                                    -----------------------------------------------------------
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otherbeach
Samba Member


Joined: September 15, 2016
Posts: 156
Location: On wrong side of the cheddar curtain
otherbeach is offline 

PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 12:22 pm    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

I am continuing to analyze and play with data from classifieds for USA Split Buses. There is a form of analysis called "textual analysis" and you may have heard of a concept of "word clouds" to visualize text "sets". Yesterday I parsed 280+ classified ad detail descriptions of USA Splits. I then did word counts on the text in the ads, eliminating common, irrelevant, or HTML-oriented words. The results are below.
Code:

                                                       Row      word
                                                    number     count    word

                                                          1     667     BUS     
                                                          2     525     NEW     
                                                          3     387     ORIGINAL
                                                          4     328     FRONT   
                                                          5     263     REAR     
                                                          6     227     ENGINE   
                                                          7     185     RUST     
                                                          8     173     VW       
                                                          9     172     WINDOW   
                                                         10     171     VERY     
                                                         11     148     PAINT   
                                                         12     143     UP       
                                                         13     141     INTERIOR
                                                         14     138     WORK     
                                                         15     136     OUT     
                                                         16     133     ONLY     
                                                         17     133     YEARS   
                                                         18     130     PLEASE   
                                                         19     124     GOOD     
                                                         20     123     DOOR     
                                                         21     122     PARTS   
                                                         22     119     FLOOR   
                                                         23     113     GREAT   
                                                         24     113     MOTOR   
                                                         25     109     SOLID   
                                                         26     106     SEAT     
                                                         27     105     JUST     
                                                         28     103     BACK     
                                                         29      96     NICE     
                                                         30      94     TIME     
                                                         31      93     BRAKES   
                                                         32      92     CONDITION
                                                         33      91     SEATS   
                                                         34      90     WINDOWS 
                                                         35      89     INSTALLED
                                                         36      89     STILL   
                                                         37      88     PANELS   
                                                         38      87     FUNCTION
                                                         39      85     PICTURES
                                                         40      83     CLEAN   
                                                         41      83     NEEDS   
                                                         42      81     REBUILT 
                                                         43      81     TIRES   
                                                         44      79     CARGO   
                                                         45      79     OTHER   
                                                         46      78     LIKE     
                                                         47      78     SIDE     
                                                         48      77     COMPLETE
                                                         49      77     ROOF     
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crukab
Samba Chef


Joined: December 13, 2002
Posts: 5288
Location: Vermont
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:07 pm    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

So you are doing this to buy a Bus ??
_________________
Welcome to the world Fenner Voss H. our 1st Grandchild 4-9-19 !!

Tom

My Pops:
http://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=604100&highlight=
I know you will always be with me, rest in peace with no more pain. 8/13/14.....

In the yard right now:
'65 Bus/Panel/camper W/T
'65 Bug
'66 Singlecab
'82 Rabbit Truck Diesel from CALI Smile
'86 Doublecab W/T
'91 Vanagon carat/wolfsbrg.Tiico
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otherbeach
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:30 pm    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

crukab wrote:
So you are doing this to buy a Bus ??


Eventually yes. If members prefer that I stop posting, I can stop. Hoping that people find it useful though.
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crukab
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:13 pm    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

otherbeach wrote:
crukab wrote:
So you are doing this to buy a Bus ??


Eventually yes. If members prefer that I stop posting, I can stop. Hoping that people find it useful though.


Hey Man, whatever it takes to get another Bus fan roll'en behind the wheel of a Split is fine w/ me. Laughing
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My Pops:
http://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=604100&highlight=
I know you will always be with me, rest in peace with no more pain. 8/13/14.....

In the yard right now:
'65 Bus/Panel/camper W/T
'65 Bug
'66 Singlecab
'82 Rabbit Truck Diesel from CALI Smile
'86 Doublecab W/T
'91 Vanagon carat/wolfsbrg.Tiico
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Starbucket
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:30 pm    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

If you buy an old bus because the trend is you will make good money on it in a couple of years, you will never enjoy your bus as you will be afraid to drive it or park and leave it anywhere. Buy a good one and drive the wheels off of it. People will stop and talk about their old VWs. It's really cool to drive the only "car" that's a stand out every where you go. Once you are hooked you will never sell it unless you find a better one.
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otherbeach
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 3:15 pm    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

Starbucket wrote:
If you buy an old bus because the trend is you will make good money on it in a couple of years, you will never enjoy your bus as you will be afraid to drive it or park and leave it anywhere. Buy a good one and drive the wheels off of it. People will stop and talk about their old VWs. It's really cool to drive the only "car" that's a stand out every where you go. Once you are hooked you will never sell it unless you find a better one.


Yes, thanks! This advice, previous advice on my post, and Forum history is all useful. Dont get me wrong, I am not doing this as an investment alone or worrying about not driving it because of impact on value. Your reasons are way better and I agree with them! But this exercise in analysis is interesting to me and in a way useful, but frankly I like the advice in the "Official Good Deals on Buses" sticky forum better than my analysis as a basis for decision.
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EverettB Premium Member
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:05 pm    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

It's interesting to me - feel free to post anything you are interested in analyzing from the data in the feed.
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:48 am    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

I did this on the vanagon forum a few years back. Start a thread asking people to post real world sale/purchase prices. The asking prices in classifieds can be way off base. You need real world data.

The folks in the vanagon forum are very friendly and were happy to provide a lot of data points . It ultimately confirmed that a lot of the vanagon ads were completely out of touch with the market

Ymmv
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bubba
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 19, 2016 5:43 am    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

I think you are a little off on your singlecab pricing ... barndoor for 6k! i will take 4 of them please!! HAHA But i like where you are going.. I just wish it would all come crashing down.. I relay miss the days of cheap buses and parts! Today it seems like a game of who can sell shit for the most money! I saw a set of split beetle 16" wheels for 4 thousand dollars.. Unrestored! Shit is out of control!!
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otherbeach
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 19, 2016 7:04 am    Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? Reply with quote

bubba wrote:
I think you are a little off on your singlecab pricing ... barndoor for 6k! i will take 4 of them please!! HAHA But i like where you are going.. I just wish it would all come crashing down.. I relay miss the days of cheap buses and parts! Today it seems like a game of who can sell shit for the most money! I saw a set of split beetle 16" wheels for 4 thousand dollars.. Unrestored! Shit is out of control!!


Hmm...appreciate the feedback. You identified an error in my data extraction...I better look at that! Thanks!
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