Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data?

[otherbeach]

Oh I dont mind the comments at all, thanks for support on the topic. My own goal is a Single Cab and as for a good price point? Well the "Official Good Deal" topic is my go-to on that one. I have almost worn down my wife to the point where I can get serious.

A few additional comments...I could tell you the asking price of a given model for a given year. The value? Not so much, just a collection of asking prices. In the beginning of the project I did have some difficulty with model consistency, so that is a fair assessment.

I do collect self-reported condition, whether or not the bus is Brazillian, submodels on campers, original date placed (which allows for me to report duration for sale or day of week placed), and city/state. I also capture advert text and have a big database now of it.

[otherbeach]

Here is the all dates summary.

[otherbeach]

Finally used JMP Software's excellent graphing to show trends. First graph is trend by model year.

Second is general trend. Brazillian or not noted.

Overall trend.

[Abscate]

You can still get into a decent Split for 30k - nice.

Ive spent more on boats that Ive had to tow.

At least with a Split you can gather the cash you pour into the hole in the ground afterwards.
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[otherbeach]

[exotic plants]

otherbeach wrote:

I haven't been on TheSamba for a bit and decided to do an extract and comparison. I extracted over the last few days and compared my numbers to my extracts from April, 2017. The results are found here and reflect a point that the data I capture is broad. Brazil busses excluded in this report.

All interesting research, very nice.

To help your numbers I felt I should point out that a Standard and a Microbus are one in the same.
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[nineteensixtyfiveVG]

[otherbeach]

[otherbeach]

[Lind]

Also, there is a huge difference between deluxe and deluxe sunroof buses.
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[western auto]

too many variables for these charts to work .... but I definitely think the market has dropped significantly for 90% of the bus market

[otherbeach]

Here is an example of the 30 months of Camper history I have collected. Note that prices may vary as the listing ages.

[otherbeach]

VW Price Trend Commentary
Overall VW prices have been flat with a slightly upwards trend.
Peak VW?
For the about 30 months of data I have collected, prices were highest in mid-2017. (Brazil omitted from this data)

Prices Do Vary by Model
While the overall trendlines are similar, they are not exactly the same. (Brazil omitted from this data, "Walkthru" at end is a data error not affecting overall analysis)

Camper Strength
Overall, the "Camper" models shows some of the greatest strength.(Brazil omitted from this data, understood that Brazil may not make them...)

Not all campers are created equal with the Westphalia the strongest. (Brazil omitted from this data, understood that Brazil may not make them...)

Brazil Weakness
Overall, Brazilian models show the most weakness. Please note of the 4000 advertisements I have collected, only about 100 are Brazillian.

[galencurrington]

thanks goodness maybe i can afford one again. i had to move on to bays. you should do a comparison with vanagons they look like they are getting a little out of hand lately.
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"asking and getting are two different things"

[nineteensixtyfiveVG]

[otherbeach]

Price trends for 23-window Splits since I do capture that within the models.

For those who wonder about the models associated with these, I am just reporting the data that includes information that it is a 23-window

[otherbeach]

[otherbeach]

From my last extract, I can go back and retrieve seller-reported condition and figure out when the advert. was first placed (not updated). The elapsed times for all splits is 121 days (advertisements were on average placed 121 days ago or about four months). The average seller-reported condition is 3.45 (between 3 and 4). Here are some more details. About 350 records from August, 2018.

Campers are in the best condition and Panels in the worse (on average). But Standard models sell fastest (on average) and Camper models sell slowest.

Courtesy of: JMP software.

[otherbeach]

Wow, thanks to E. Barnes, I now have 24000 USA split bus advert records of asking prices. "Wanted to Buy" excluded. I will add additional model and table breakdowns of this information. No personal information included, but advertID is present in data.

I keep saying "peak bus"...are we past it?

Methodology: .010 Lamda smoothing. Models normalized by capturing SOLD information from description. Asking price where available captured. Data shown as MEAN(Average) representing $269 Million in "potential" transactions.

[otherbeach]

Additional table analysis. Look at those average asking prices rise, then peak (first table, bottom)!

Yes, "missing windows" is confusing...It means the data didn't describe a #-Windows in its captured description.