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LJay
Samba Member
Joined: August 05, 2007
Posts: 584
Location: Arbroath,Scotland
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 Posted: Thu Aug 27, 2020 3:47 pm Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? |
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Quite an interesting thread and great you kept it up, I paid 24k (gbp) for my Westfalia SO34 at the very end of March 2020 at a high point on your graph, it does need lots doing to it however.
Did you ever get a single cab?
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1962 Turkis Westfalia so34.
My build thread.
https://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=742279 |
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otherbeach
Samba Member
Joined: September 15, 2016
Posts: 281
Location: Illinois
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| Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:26 am Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? |
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| LJay wrote: |
Quite an interesting thread and great you kept it up, I paid 24k (gbp) for my Westfalia SO34 at the very end of March 2020 at a high point on your graph, it does need lots doing to it however.
Did you ever get a single cab? |
I am watching campers now, like yours! Maybe ...in 2021.
Thanks for the feedback. Since there are just two data points for 2020, the graph smoothing looks a bit funny, so it is hard to consider that graph as discrete points.
This information may be useful in comparing April and August 2020.
March has a small data error which I fixed in the last graph. No $400K Split there.
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Coming to you from God’s Own Time Zone: Central Time…up near the Illinois/Minnesota border. ** Note I am currently (mostly) INACTIVE in the bus community due to temporary life changes. My price tracking from 2016 to 2021 is now over and data stored offline **
"Cows at the border of the Dairy State and the Land of Lincoln are remarkably honest." |
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Abscate
Samba Member
Joined: October 05, 2014
Posts: 22639
Location: NYC/Upstate/ROW
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| Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2020 8:41 am Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? |
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You should report the median asks in this thread. They consistently run 8-10k under means, which tell you there is a big bias, and I bet the variation is still less than 10% of the std deviation of the price, ie not stat significant
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.ssS! |
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otherbeach
Samba Member
Joined: September 15, 2016
Posts: 281
Location: Illinois
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| Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2020 9:02 am Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? |
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| Abscate wrote: |
| You should report the median asks in this thread. They consistently run 8-10k under means, which tell you there is a big bias, and I bet the variation is still less than 10% of the std deviation of the price, ie not stat significant |
Thanks for the suggestion. Here it is, although I used Standard Deviation instead of Variance, but did include Median.
_________________
Coming to you from God’s Own Time Zone: Central Time…up near the Illinois/Minnesota border. ** Note I am currently (mostly) INACTIVE in the bus community due to temporary life changes. My price tracking from 2016 to 2021 is now over and data stored offline **
"Cows at the border of the Dairy State and the Land of Lincoln are remarkably honest." |
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otherbeach
Samba Member
Joined: September 15, 2016
Posts: 281
Location: Illinois
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| Posted: Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:34 am Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? |
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| Abscate wrote: |
| You should report the median asks in this thread. They consistently run 8-10k under means, which tell you there is a big bias, and I bet the variation is still less than 10% of the std deviation of the price, ie not stat significant |
Once again took an extract on Tuesday, Sept. 8, 2020 after the USA Labor Day weekend. Emphasis is on long-term trend, showing Median ask price broken down by model for readability. Westy vs. OTW noted.
Overall Trend
Pickups
Kombis, Standards, and Panels. The label isnt clear here, so the Blue dash is Kombi, Green is Standard/Microbus, Red is Panel
Campers
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Coming to you from God’s Own Time Zone: Central Time…up near the Illinois/Minnesota border. ** Note I am currently (mostly) INACTIVE in the bus community due to temporary life changes. My price tracking from 2016 to 2021 is now over and data stored offline **
"Cows at the border of the Dairy State and the Land of Lincoln are remarkably honest." |
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otherbeach
Samba Member
Joined: September 15, 2016
Posts: 281
Location: Illinois
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| Posted: Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:31 pm Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? |
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Once again took an extract on Monday, March 29, 2021. Emphasis is on long-term trend, showing Median ask price broken down by model for readability.
My code for Westy vs. OTW on this extract is broken, so funny data on this extract for camper breakdown despite there being a number of campers for sale now.
On the model trend line graph, I removed the Special and Other trendlines. I used "Other" when I couldnt classify the bus...I do that much better now.
This data as noted in the thread shows overall trend and I have now switched to Median as the stat shown except for the one at the end.
BAT is increasing the amount of data it has collected with its ever-increasing number of auctions. I do not report BAT data.
This data now represents 5300 Split advertisements since 2016. I do know that long running advertisements result in multiple records being generated, so this does not represent 5300 Splits for sale. I have always excluded Brazilian buses and my extract is USA.
My extract for Panels for example uses this query:
| Code: |
'http://www.thesamba.com/vw/classifieds/rss/search.php?type=text&stype=all&keywords=&model%5B%5D=1949-67%20Bus%20-%20Panel§ion%5B%5D=5&country=USA&wanted=hide&sort=date&sort_order=DESC';
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Median
==========================================
Mean
_________________
Coming to you from God’s Own Time Zone: Central Time…up near the Illinois/Minnesota border. ** Note I am currently (mostly) INACTIVE in the bus community due to temporary life changes. My price tracking from 2016 to 2021 is now over and data stored offline **
"Cows at the border of the Dairy State and the Land of Lincoln are remarkably honest." |
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Braukuche
Samba Member
Joined: September 03, 2004
Posts: 10998
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| Posted: Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:16 pm Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? |
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I like BATs as it’s based on actual sales.
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Go Reds! Smash state!
Retirement is here!
1956 Ghia
1959 SO-23 Westfalia
1960 double cab
1960 Baja Bug
1963 stretched double cab
1962 Golde sunroof Ghia
1963 356 B coupe
1963 Notchback
1967 21 window less rusty now |
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otherbeach
Samba Member
Joined: September 15, 2016
Posts: 281
Location: Illinois
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| Posted: Tue Mar 30, 2021 5:28 am Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? |
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| Braukuche wrote: |
| I like BATs as it’s based on actual sales. |
I do see your comments there and appreciate your contributions to the education of buyers here and there.
Their results page is at the bottom of:
https://bringatrailer.com/volkswagen/bus-type-2/
Results there does also include buses not meeting (undisclosed) reserve and unfortunately does not break down results by model nor does it exclude Brazilian buses. Results also include Bays. There is a search facility, for example, I entered "13" for 13-Window to narrow results.
_________________
Coming to you from God’s Own Time Zone: Central Time…up near the Illinois/Minnesota border. ** Note I am currently (mostly) INACTIVE in the bus community due to temporary life changes. My price tracking from 2016 to 2021 is now over and data stored offline **
"Cows at the border of the Dairy State and the Land of Lincoln are remarkably honest." |
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otherbeach
Samba Member
Joined: September 15, 2016
Posts: 281
Location: Illinois
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| Posted: Fri May 07, 2021 8:51 am Post subject: Re: Has anyone collected price history or seasonal trends data? |
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Shall we declare a Splits shortage?
Only around 122 (approximately) non-Brazil, USA-based Split buses of all models for sale as of 07May21.
I've seen near 200 or more on some extracts.
You may have noticed the rather small number of Campers for sale with not many Westys at all listed...yes some, but not many.
Anyway, here is the summary stats for today.
_________________
Coming to you from God’s Own Time Zone: Central Time…up near the Illinois/Minnesota border. ** Note I am currently (mostly) INACTIVE in the bus community due to temporary life changes. My price tracking from 2016 to 2021 is now over and data stored offline **
"Cows at the border of the Dairy State and the Land of Lincoln are remarkably honest." |
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