Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving

[Bloku]

Hey guys! I have had this thought floating around my head today... I want to see if any of you guys agree with me or not and why you agree or disagree.

I personally look forwards to autonomous cars being driven by themselves, for the most part, because those who still choose to drive will only be the people who truly like driving and or know how to really drive well. Road rage, getting cut off, texting and driving people, and overall crappy driving will nearly cease to exist! I will now be able to drive in true safety with the only risk being ME. Never again will you have to care if the tail-gating person behind you will mess up and hit you.

I am betting that those who still drive will probably have to seek out a different form of license, but (hopefully) that license will give the same "driving rights" as we have now. The only difference is that you would be on a road without anyone else driving... filled cars driving around, perfectly. Finally, the art of driving will, yet again, be recognized as just that, an art. It will be looked at similarly to how someone who flies an aircraft is thought of today... I say this because most people I know think of driving as just like walking when in reality, driving is more similar to flying an aircraft than walking.

On the other hand, I am also content with how it is now, careless drives and all. It is extreme when you notice that every time we go driving, ever person we pass we also trust to not hit us. On a simple drive down to the market, you might do this "trust exercise" hundreds of times . I think that is what I'd miss the most about our current driving.

I don't know why, but I find thinking about this as pretty amusing...

What do you guys think?
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[photogdave]

Good points! I had not thought of it from that point of view before.
Around here drivers are getting worse and worse. I truly don't understand how most of them got their licenses.
The latest trends in the downtown area here include turning in either direction from the centre lane (cutting off cars in the far left or right lane) and beginning turns into intersections well after the light has turned red. The looks on these drivers' faces is frightening. It's like they're already in autonomous cars because they appear to have no control over what they're doing and are just holding on for dear life like a roller coaster ride!
Maybe self-driving cars will be programmed not to run lights, use turn signals in advance of turning, leave enough space between vehicles for safe braking and other novel safety concepts.
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[bigdog1962]

I will especially appreciate autonomous driving at night, in the rain, in a strange city and when I've had a few ....
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[busdaddy]

Sounds rather Utopian

In reality I don't see it happening unless it's only on specific roads designated as 100% driverless. Ask anyone if they think they are a good driver, only 1 in ~200 will answer no, sure there are some who will happily hand over the reigns to Mr. Roboto to free up time for texting or napping on the way to work, but they are outnumbered by the egotistical asses who will resist just because they can, or somehow think they can do a better job than some stupid machine.

Even if insurance rates triple for non SD vehicles in the future I'll bet there's always going to be some holdouts, and not all of them will really be skilled drivers. In aviation there's the "more money than brains" percentile, just because they can afford it, have taken the training and passed doesn't mean they should be doing some of the things they do.
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[skills@eurocarsplus]

I don't see it happening on a large scale either busdaddy...here's my take on it.

been with Volvo for more years than I'd like to admit to. when they introduced the "adaptive cruise control" it was a nightmare. that system is janky, it feels like it was made with Atari 2600 parts.

say you set the cruise @ 70. you'll be humming along, and approaching the car ahead of you say doing 60. the car will literally run right up the ass (about 10 feet. +/-) and JAM the brakes on.

lets say you drop down to 50 during this event. the car will down shift violently and peg the ETM until that set speed of 70 is reached again.

-reflections mess with the system
-shadows mess with the system
-bug splatter mess with the system
-obstructions of the radar mess with the system

the system has to be calibrated periodically, which requires the whole car to be leveled, and the X/Y axis of the unit to be adjusted. the procedure including a test drive adaptation can take 2-3 hours

do you think for 1 minute the public at large is going to pay to have this done, let alone maintain the system? hell, I have to take BLIS cameras apart to clean the optical heater lens to make the system functional....900.00+ cameras on these things.

I think they will sell a handful, no one will use the system and it will be put out to pasture....like self parking cars. it's going to be an expensive parlor trick people will show friends at keg parties. even if they make the technology cheap to produce, the end user will NEVER pay to maintain the system.

don't even get me started on the "city safety" systems....windshields for those cars are 2,000.00 and ARE NOT available aftermarket.
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[Zundfolge1432]

Yes it will happen over time and I've driven cars, not volvos where the above described system worked well, including blind spot monitoring and the one that vibrates seat if you get too close backing up. Shoot I'm old enough to remember people cutting seat belts out of cars cause they thought this was too intrusive as well.

[skills@eurocarsplus]

it could happen when the figure out every algorithm for every single possible situation...which frankly is impossible. it works well in a factory/controlled environment situation but there is absolutely no way in hell that a computer can determine a newspaper blowing across the street or if it was a Yorkshire terrier ...

I can see it happening on a closed course or dedicated railway...but no way will it ever happen on a large scale in densely populated areas, far too many variables and seeing first hand what it takes to maintain the BLIS cameras on these cars, from a maintenance and environmental standpoint the end user will NOT maintain the product.

actually, I take all of that back. they will use it, stuff it up the asses of the masses and when people get mowed over by this bullshit the powers that be will just pass it along as "it's no different than a drunk driver, accidents will happen"

it's almost like the population is celebrating artificial intelligence because they are too stupid to do things on their own anymore. sad, really.... I can't believe how far backwards we are sliding thinking we are moving forward....
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[heimlich]

Technology, it changes our life everyday and will continue to do so. In the future you may not need to drive. Teleportation or warping across dimensions might come to fruition.
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[busdaddy]

[jwp67]

They are going to have to find a way to keep people from hacking or crashing the systems on these cars. There are enough wack jobs out there that someone would get their jollies writing a code to cause major damage. Technology and its' advancement is part of our future, but I would rather drive myself. I think it should be mandatory that all new drivers drive an old car with a standard transmission. I think the amount of attention you half to give to it makes you a better driver.
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[2type2]

Since most people don't actually know how to drive a car and as stated ,even bad drivers think they do well, I do not see a solution. Once autonomous driving becomes 'standard practice' and even more people fail to learn to drive, then there will still be hoonigans who think they should be driving- as an invaluable "right to drive". These days due the tech in cars there are numerous drivers who know where the accelerator and brake pedal are, yet they have no clue whatsoever how to actually operate the machine as a whole---- such as accelerating into a curve or downshifting then accelerating for torque , or even steering out of a slide. It's a shame anybody who can manage to parallel park qualifies to get a license. The idea of requiring the ability to drive a manual shift would really reduce this.
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[TDCTDI]

This subject was brought up by an older gentleman at a wedding that I was at that said he was rear ended at a golf course a few weeks ago by a person that had become reliant on his car's proximity braking system. He would just set the cruise control & let the car do everything else.

He also brought up the fact that autonomously driven cars would allow older people to remain independent & mobile longer.
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[Zundfolge1432]

Ah yes the old timers my dad told me about his grandfather who couldn't figure out why anyone would have indoor plumbing. Back then there was a whole subset of older guys that were convinced death and disease would result from having a toilet in the house. Ditto electricity. You guys never fail to give me a hearty belly laugh.... thanks

[cbeck]

I do vehicle gare operators. Work with power ranging from 2.5vdc up to 460 3ph. Todays modern electronics are built like wet paper towels compared to yesteryears relay logic. I make a living fixing modern electronics. I will stop here before I piss off some booksmart people. I will say I look both ways at train crossings. If you are not worried about self preservation, you might as well be in darwins waiting room.

[allenw]

[Manfred58sc]

5G infrastructure will make SDC's a reality. Till then only limited market penetration will occur. Sooner than we think..
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[skills@eurocarsplus]

[TDCTDI]

I'm still interested in how it will play out in court when one causes an accident, whether it be due to an electronics fault or misinterpretation of inputs, who will be held responsible. Will it be the vehicle operator/occupant who obviously won't be paying attention? Will it be the owner (since so many can companies are wanting to get rid of the drivers.), or the manufacturers (since they are making something that really has no ability to decipher all the possibilities & ultimately have the pockets.).
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[raygreenwood]

As others have noted....its not going to happen anytime soon. But....there will be a "wave" of first time autonomous vehicles that somehow get certified to drive in just a few years...because there is too much money and publicity for them NOT to be allowed.

And just remember that someone said this....they will be ok for a little while and then have serious enough issues that they will literally be taken off the road...unless they have dedicated lanes, usage areas and systemic external control (not just their own internal control).

Its not a computing power issue. Its not really a software/AI issue. We have just about enough of that right now to make this happen.

Its a system sensor issue, wear and maintenance issue...and eventually cost issues because of those two things.

Why?

Understand this...the Google car from two years ago...the one that had the minor accident? Its operating system in order to get as good as or better DEPTH OF FIELD as the human eye...had 360 separate external cameras with overlapping fields.

Even AV's with many less cameras (which have their own problems because now they have a wider less accurate field of view)

They have not discovered yet...a way to keep these cameras clean and un-obscured by dirt, mud, rain or snow...or door ding damage. So at any given time parts of the car are blind. Even if the cameras move...situational awareness and depth of field is an issue.

The other HUGE HUGE HUGE problem:

Example: have you ever bought a new car...driven it for 50-70k miles...loving it the whole time...its in great shape...no issues....but you pull into a dealer...and test drive a brand new version of the same car...or even an identical same year car with 1/10th of the mileage.....and suddenly realize how much tighter and more accurate the newer lower mileage car drives?

this is because tires, ball joints, tie-rod ends, strut and shock valving, shift clutches in the transmission, control arm bushings, steering rack, strut bushings, motor mounts, transverse link bushings, sway bar bushings and springs....on your car...have all worn.

Even though it is no longer capable of as accurate of driving and handling as it was when new....It does not kill you.....because your senses and collected experience....slowly adapt and you COMPENSATE.

AI will not have this ability...UNLESS....EVERY ONE OF THESE PARTS AND MANY OTHERS....HAVE WEAR AND PERFORMANCE SENSORS....and are connected to lateral G-force meters, accelerators etc....which you have in your head, your butt and your hands...to allow you to compensate.

Without these sensors....as the car wears...normal wear...the autonomous system will not be able to compensate UNTIL...something happens to tweak one of its directional sensors or wheel slip sensors etc.

And because of this...the first allowed generations of crude Autonomous cars...will have accidents...bad ones... at highway speed or on rough road or on ice, snow, gravel, mud...or even when the tire tread has worn down enough and are old enough that the tread is now harder and less grippy than it was.

Can you imagine...what the cost and reliability issue of a fully sensored engine, transmission and suspension system will be?

I don't see this realistically and safely becoming a reality and happening any time soon ...unless they are put in lanes in urban environments....you know....like bus lanes? Ray