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Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving
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raygreenwood
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:50 pm    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

Manfred58sc wrote:
Fortune magazine last month, the "Fast and the Furious" cover. 20 pages of how and when, not if. It would not make the cover if there was not a great pent-up unanswered demand. City dwellers are sick of commuting and will accept the risks. Just like we do with fast food,medical care,agriculture,etc etc. The rule of capitalism is "buyer beware", participate at your own risk.


Not really.....just like so many other high tech industry innovations.....PRIVATE CITIZEN level.....autonomous cars (not to be compared to closed course usage industrial pilotless vehicles)......are being "pushed" by industry internal tech companies and media hype......not being "pulled" by user demand.

Never assume that an opinion straw poll equals reality. Its very easy to say the market draw is there.....when its really not..... from the hundreds of speculative polls the media and the tech industry throws around.....like this:

Question to person on the street or at a trade show:

"Would you drive an autonomous car if it were available to you?"

Answer: "oh yeah....that would be great!....for sure!"

Reality modified questiion: "would you by an autonomous car....today......and...bear in mind it WILL be electric and have a maximum range of 220 miles in warm weather at medium speeds up to 50 mph.....180 miles at highway speed....and half of that in sub-freezing,weather and hot weather (heater and air conditioning usage)...with a minimum fast charge of 2 hours time......and MUST have a full bumper to bumper maintenance plan FOR ITS ENTIRE LIFE (you think those are expensive on a gasoline car?).......must use special tires ......and even when subsidized will likely be in the $40-$50k range...........can we get a check for deposit TODAY?"

When the requirements, limitations and reality set in.....the answer to ACTUAL market demand question will be totally different.

I see this totally possible for an "Uber" vehicle.....in urban environments on a locked course.
Ray
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:29 pm    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

Self driving cars are already on the road. In one of my classes I am taking we designed a self driving car. It wasn't anything special but during my research I found quite a few pieces of interesting literature.

There is a guy who actually designed and was trying to sell a kit but the Gov came down on him for something so instead he has opensourced it.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:55 pm    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

raygreenwood wrote:
ach60 wrote:
Self-driving cars aren't really that far away.
It's being implemented in the mining industry now.
http://www.mining.com/australias-big-miners-add-more-driverless-trucks-88704/
Next will be Docks & sea ports because they're on private property.
this will also give the AI companies experience of meshing Self driving vehicles with human controlled vehicles.
http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-fi-automated-trucks-labor-20160924/
Finally after they push the teamsters out of the way, which will take time,
but will happen, because a 50 to 70% cut of employee cost will be too great for business to ignore
https://thenextweb.com/artificial-intelligence/201...w_eypQmYn5
https://www.ottomotors.com/
"We have the technology to replicate human labor" Kind of a scary Orwellian quote.
http://fleetowner.com/technology/report-driverless-trucks-will-eliminate-millions-jobs
Inside of ten years we'll see the economic effects of this automation, and it will be an economic mess.
It will effect the entire country just like de-industrialization affected the rust belt for the last 30 years.


And....every one of those examples is on a "closed course" with GPS pre- programmed changes .....not on the fly....for example in the large open pit mines.

The self driving dock trucks ane lifts...again....closed course, pre-programmed and recognize containers and locations by bar code, QR code, RFID and vision systems.

I have watched self piloted locomotives here on the North side of Des Moines.....again...closed course...vision systems to detect people blowing crossing gates.....and a governed speed limit of 5mph.

Its a lomg way off....not because of the industry ability....but because of terrain and real world reality. Ray


Interesting I hadn't even thought about self piloted locomotives!
What is your idea of a long way off? 5 to 10 years?
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:37 am    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

Autonomous driving cars would be a good idea for some people,

had a lady in my shop today who rides a moped every day,
she got hit by a car for the 7th time (not all in the same day Razz )

she's ok but the moped is writen off now.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:00 pm    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

Yep, that's America for you-

F^%* you mass transit, we'll wait another 60 years so we can have self driving indiviualism

That said, I love Elon Musk and his "what do you mean it will never work?" attitude.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:48 am    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

Sadly mass transit is a huge afterthought here.....unless you're in boston or new york. I think high speed rails in the freeway median would be neat...but that will never happen either....

Elon? Meh....

I see this as a waste of $$ like renewable energy (corn, etc)....where's all the cheap gas? As someone said....follow the money.....
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raygreenwood
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:25 pm    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

ach60 wrote:
raygreenwood wrote:
ach60 wrote:
Self-driving cars aren't really that far away.
It's being implemented in the mining industry now.
http://www.mining.com/australias-big-miners-add-more-driverless-trucks-88704/
Next will be Docks & sea ports because they're on private property.
this will also give the AI companies experience of meshing Self driving vehicles with human controlled vehicles.
http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-fi-automated-trucks-labor-20160924/
Finally after they push the teamsters out of the way, which will take time,
but will happen, because a 50 to 70% cut of employee cost will be too great for business to ignore
https://thenextweb.com/artificial-intelligence/201...w_eypQmYn5
https://www.ottomotors.com/
"We have the technology to replicate human labor" Kind of a scary Orwellian quote.
http://fleetowner.com/technology/report-driverless-trucks-will-eliminate-millions-jobs
Inside of ten years we'll see the economic effects of this automation, and it will be an economic mess.
It will effect the entire country just like de-industrialization affected the rust belt for the last 30 years.


And....every one of those examples is on a "closed course" with GPS pre- programmed changes .....not on the fly....for example in the large open pit mines.

The self driving dock trucks ane lifts...again....closed course, pre-programmed and recognize containers and locations by bar code, QR code, RFID and vision systems.

I have watched self piloted locomotives here on the North side of Des Moines.....again...closed course...vision systems to detect people blowing crossing gates.....and a governed speed limit of 5mph.

Its a lomg way off....not because of the industry ability....but because of terrain and real world reality. Ray


Interesting I hadn't even thought about self piloted locomotives!
What is your idea of a long way off? 5 to 10 years?


For autonomous cars....you will see some attempts very quickly...and everyone will love them...media will go wild.

You will get a great 5 years of PR...seem to work perfectly!

Then you get high mileage wear issues....accidents....flaws...faults....and it will grind to a halt. There needs to be infrastructure for them them does not exist. Monitoring stations 24 hours...location mapping, surveillance....forced and enforced maintenance....costly maintenance.

20 years easy until it "could" be a reliable form of mass transit. Not because its not technically possible....that can be five years...but because to make them safe and reliable the infrastructure will require a stupendous outlay and the cost for ownership will have to be subsidized.

For that cost you could do coast to coast 4 track main lines for passenger rail with car transport. Ray
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:29 am    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

I love to drive. I do not look forward to autonomous vehicles.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:20 pm    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

The kid who unlocked the I-phone has released open source software that can interact ( at various levels with various models ) already. The list is impressive. Of course there will be strict maintenance cycles that will be computer enforced. Again that is already happening (limp mode when the catalytic converter fluid goes low). Driving (autonomous or human ) will be very expensive , on par with flying ( which is also largely self -flying). I was at my favorite old car junk yard today ( 80 years in business ), they know the deal is done and will be closing soon.
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:27 pm    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

scottyrocks wrote:
I love to drive. I do not look forward to autonomous vehicles.


I like driving, and the more autonomous vehicles are on the road, the less likely (hopefully), some distracted driver will run into me. Then when my grandkids are old enough to drive, I won't be worrying about their getting into an accident if they are in an autonomous vehicle.

And when my kids take my car keys away from me, and I become mobility restricted, I'll still be able to go anywhere I want (as long as I can afford it) by calling for an autonomous vehicle.

So other than for the loss of the pleasure of driving, I see autonomous vehicles as basically a good thing.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:27 am    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

79SuperVert wrote:
scottyrocks wrote:
I love to drive. I do not look forward to autonomous vehicles.


I like driving, and the more autonomous vehicles are on the road, the less likely (hopefully), some distracted driver will run into me. Then when my grandkids are old enough to drive, I won't be worrying about their getting into an accident if they are in an autonomous vehicle.

And when my kids take my car keys away from me, and I become mobility restricted, I'll still be able to go anywhere I want (as long as I can afford it) by calling for an autonomous vehicle.

So other than for the loss of the pleasure of driving, I see autonomous vehicles as basically a good thing.


I have been run into so infrequently (like once) that that is not a concern for me. Selfish? Maybe, but that's how much I dislike the idea of losing my self-reliance.

That brings up another question. Will we be 'calling for an autonomous vehicle' or will we be owning autonomous vehicles, as in cabs vs private cars. I also really dislike getting into some smelly and filthy vehicle that a thousand other people have already been in.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 7:24 am    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

scottyrocks wrote:

That brings up another question. Will we be 'calling for an autonomous vehicle' or will we be owning autonomous vehicles, as in cabs vs private cars. I also really dislike getting into some smelly and filthy vehicle that a thousand other people have already been in.


That's a good point. Once GM and Toyota can have someone else drive their cars for them why sell them to the folks as the bottom of the ladder. Why not just rent them the service that drives them? This is probably a less likely a scenario in the future but you never know.

I see this same type of situation come up in software. The software makers used to sell you software but now you're lucky if you can buy it anymore. The only thing you can buy is a subscription to it. If you stop paying your subscription you lose your rights to it.
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:47 pm    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

If I could summon a self-driving car at any hour of the day or night, at a cost comparable to owning a car, I think I would not bother with owning one, because I would have the autonomy and independence of car ownership, but none of the headaches like insurance, maintenance and wear and tear.

If most people think that way, I'm guessing that car manufacturers will eventually evolve to become nation wide providers of self-driving car services, making and maintaining huge fleets of self-driving cars, and providing the distribution and dispatching networks that send the cars to our doorsteps.
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:48 pm    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

Somebody has already crashed and burned because "forward" wasn't spelled correctly. Effen computers.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:43 am    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

scottyrocks wrote:

That brings up another question. Will we be 'calling for an autonomous vehicle' or will we be owning autonomous vehicles, as in cabs vs private cars. I also really dislike getting into some smelly and filthy vehicle that a thousand other people have already been in.


If you think that it's bad now, wait until they become recognized as constant on call brothels. And, with no one to inspect between runs or to discourage deviant behavior, imagine getting one that has been soiled or stained.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:28 am    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

If you are not owning the car, I guarantee all occupants will be recorded.
I believe tons of Uber drivers already do that.

I seriously doubt people will own the cars, there is no reason to and my understanding is there are already a massive mount of the younger generation who see no reason to own a car.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:35 am    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

79SuperVert wrote:
If I could summon a self-driving car at any hour of the day or night, at a cost comparable to owning a car, I think I would not bother with owning one, because I would have the autonomy and independence of car ownership, but none of the headaches like insurance, maintenance and wear and tear.

If most people think that way, I'm guessing that car manufacturers will eventually evolve to become nation wide providers of self-driving car services, making and maintaining huge fleets of self-driving cars, and providing the distribution and dispatching networks that send the cars to our doorsteps.


Yes, this.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:06 pm    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

as utopian as this all sounds, kind sounds big brother-ish to me....granted we are tracked by cell phones, the web etc, which of course you could "unplug" and go "off grid" and be harder to follow....I dunno...not a fan of it.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:34 pm    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

I agree it's more direct, especially if they are recording you too but yes, your phone is already following you around if you have it, even if it's off.

To anyone:
Here's your Google location history if you were not aware and want to be freaked out:
https://www.google.com/maps/timeline?pb
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:04 pm    Post subject: Re: Why I look Forwards to Autonomous Driving Reply with quote

Some of you may find this amusing....

https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/8/16626224/las-vegas-self-driving-shuttle-crash-accident-first-day
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