will prices drop?

[Gary]

[calvinater]

two words :

Beanie Babies
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"Albatross"!

[Gary]

[ach60]

[andk5591]

Using the muscle car insane value increase years back and beanie babies are not a good comparison. When something gets a crazy value increase, there is usually an "adjustment" at some point... VW values had stayed pretty soft until the last few years and have finally caught up to where they should be....Still thinking buses are a bit inflated right now and I sure as hell would not spend $100K for one as an investment.
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D-Dubya Manx clone - 63 Short pan,1914.
Rosie 65 bug - My mostly stock daily driver.
Woodie 69 VW woodie (Hot VWs 7/12).
"John's car" 64 VW woodie - The first ever
Maxine 61 Cal-look bug - Cindy's daily driver.
Max - 73 standard Beetle hearse project - For sale
66 bug project - Real patina & Suby conversion
There's more, but not keeping them...

[andk5591]

Here's the thing....If you are basing an investment (cars count) on something volatile then there is the greatest potential for a massive gain or loss. The collector car flavor of the day in the 6 or more figure range is like some tech stocks.... I view VWs as mutual funds.....
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D-Dubya Manx clone - 63 Short pan,1914.
Rosie 65 bug - My mostly stock daily driver.
Woodie 69 VW woodie (Hot VWs 7/12).
"John's car" 64 VW woodie - The first ever
Maxine 61 Cal-look bug - Cindy's daily driver.
Max - 73 standard Beetle hearse project - For sale
66 bug project - Real patina & Suby conversion
There's more, but not keeping them...

[Helfen]

[atticus finch]

IF the cars become radically overpriced then yes the prices will drop as people won't pay such prices.

A clean beetle such as my `70, any beetle outside of the very early & rare beetles, selling for $20K + might happen but such a radically overpriced car market won't hold.

If the reactions my beetle gets are an indication of how the public still feels about these cars, they are still very much loved and coveted by the public. People are starting to realize the value of these cars relative to new computer controlled cars.

I don't think they'll get to insane prices such as the muscle car market of the `80's & `90's. But they'll hold at a certain level as younger generations develop interest in them.
The damocles sword hanging over air-cooled is the ability to work on them, we all know they're not the same as modern cars, they require the ability to work on them. That & low-grade replacement parts and/or components which are no longer available such as vacuum advance modules.

[iowegian]

[Gary]

[Helfen]

[crukab]

[tims57LL]

Some general observations from a relatively new member (6 months this time).
Don’t be offended if this makes me a “student of the obvious!”
1) Many VWs of all types remain for sale on Samba for quite a while, even though updated regularly.
2) Unmolested, mostly original types show higher demand/less time for sale than modified cars/buses, as other posts have stated. Low light Ghias, for instance, rule this market.
3) I conclude that many members/buyers are searching for projects to restore, which is their passion or hobby. Some projects have been posted for many years!
4) Nicely restored original condition vehicles have a smaller market than projects requiring some restoration.
5) Original Class 1 &2 vehicles, if priced right, have a market, and cost less than the $ cost of a restoration
6) When trying to value a vehicle, it is useful to consult an online inflation index

[EverettB]

^^^^
I think that is all accurate, nice summary
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[Onceler]

I realize it's an old thread, but it's been on my mind. I realize supply is drying up, but demand is drying up also. I just don't think old vw's or collector cars in general will beat inflation for the most part in the coming years. Might as well just enjoy the hobby aspect. spending the time and money on a physical object is just not the trend anymore with many of the younger generation, sure there are exceptions, but the trend is overwhelmingly toward digital"things"IE. Video games, social media. I just don't see many mellinials wanting to cruise around in a 57 Chevy and think it's cool. But oh well, I'll continue to invest in my 401k and horse around with old cars as my hobby
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1972 Karmann Ghia

[60ragtop]

[tims57LL]

Asking a $ price and getting that $ price are two different things.
Looking at the number of ads recycling in the Ghia category, along with the ones which are stagnant, i.e., not renewed ever, or stopped being renewed after reposting, indicate a relatively small pool of willing buyers vs. the 220+ sellers—a number which remains stable over time. I don’t know what the other categories of VW for sale show, but I’m guessing the trend is similar.
One category which retains its demand and relatively high pricing are low lites requiring some level of restoration. This is also the category most posted in the “WTB” ads.

I agree with the previous post regarding the dwindling interest in classic car hobbyist. In addition, there is the simultaneous and unfortunate decline in the number of craftsmen who possess the amazing skill sets required to take on a project car, as well as the appreciation of the dignity of manual, technical work.

BTW, young people don’t all spend their time playing video games or goofing off. Many are busting their hump to find stable employment and affordable housing. In addition many have no place to store and work on a car. Those who can choose also want to travel and have experiences and may never have had the interest in cars that some of the-shall we say-“more mature” population grew up with.

[60ragtop]

Yes, asking price and selling is different but look at the trends lately, doesn't seem to be a price drop. Some pricing is people spending to much time watching the TV auctions.
bay window bus, super beetle, type 3, these VW's never garnered the interest or prices they command now.
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Rick
Certified Mechanic by the State of Michigan in 1977
ASA certified in 1987
Certified Hunter Wheel Alignment Master Technician 1986

[EverettB]

[sb001]