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Zundfolge1432 
Samba Member
Joined: June 13, 2004
Posts: 12468
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 Posted: Thu May 03, 2018 12:07 pm Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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| sb001 wrote: |
| wcfvw69 wrote: |
I'm also firmly in the camp that original, unmolested, rust free VW's are going to be leading the pack in rising prices. With the extraordinary costs of body work/paint and other restoration costs, these VW's will continue to demand the highest price point. |
Sweet, this is what I wanted to hear -- and mine's a one family owner as well, with all the original paperwork. I'm going to ask $20k!! |
I think you are saying this in jest... but to those reading this I’ve seen this car and it could well bring a nice sum of money because of condition and history. |
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Onceler
Samba Member
Joined: May 28, 2010
Posts: 1647
Location: Indiana
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| Posted: Thu May 03, 2018 7:09 pm Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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I'm sure sboo1's car is a gem, but for the sake of this thread, what is y'alls opinion on what it might sell for right now? Not trying to put sb001 on the spot, just trying to gage pricing.
I would say my KG if finished might bring 10k as long as the buyer didn't know how much mud was in it
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1972 Karmann Ghia |
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Zundfolge1432
Samba Member
Joined: June 13, 2004
Posts: 12468
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| Posted: Fri May 04, 2018 5:21 am Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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It’s not an easy answer in fact there used to be, maybe still is a show called “what’s my car worth”. Format was they’d asked three experts and then go to auction. Despite experts best opinions they were more often wrong than right on the hammer price. Also depends on who’s bidding that day but probably the best indicator is the Economy. If times are good and people are feeling confident your car brings more every time. I’m no expert but I think marketed properly on the world stage with phone bidders a 69 bug all original with papers could fetch between 10 to 20. All it really takes is a deep pocket guy that had one back when and he’s had a few drinks before bidding begins. Here’s what’s going on in the world right now.
Last edited by Zundfolge1432 on Fri May 04, 2018 5:38 am; edited 1 time in total |
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andk5591
Samba Member
Joined: August 29, 2005
Posts: 16758
Location: State College, PA
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| Posted: Fri May 04, 2018 5:35 am Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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Look at Hemmings motor news and see what is happening at the auctions....Given that these prices are usually on the high side, BUT looking for trends....And I am surprised how much folks are getting for bugs these days....
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D-Dubya Manx clone - 63 Short pan,1914.
Rosie 65 bug - My mostly stock daily driver.
Woodie 69 VW woodie (Hot VWs 7/12).
"John's car" 64 VW woodie - The first ever
Maxine 61 Cal-look bug - Cindy's daily driver.
Max - 73 standard Beetle hearse project - For sale
66 bug project - Real patina & Suby conversion
There's more, but not keeping them... |
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Zundfolge1432
Samba Member
Joined: June 13, 2004
Posts: 12468
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| Posted: Fri May 04, 2018 5:41 am Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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| I am not surprised that low mileage original cars bring top dollar see above current activity. At bottom a low mile 75 autostik ck price😀 |
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Onceler
Samba Member
Joined: May 28, 2010
Posts: 1647
Location: Indiana
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| Posted: Fri May 04, 2018 6:54 am Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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Wow, those prices are pretty high. I just don’t ever see myself ever paying anymore than 5k for a bug, considering I could build a driver for that amount, of course it wouldn’t be all original, but I personally could care less.
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1972 Karmann Ghia |
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tims57LL
Samba Member
Joined: April 21, 2011
Posts: 18
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| Posted: Fri May 04, 2018 8:22 am Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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Seasonal influences also play a role in supply and demand,and the resulting increase of listings and pricing.
Opportunities to drive and enjoy a car when it isn’t snowing, and the chance to work on classics in better, warmer weather drive demand.
Supply also increases as sellers may also be enticed into the market because of the perception that prices are trending higher based on what they see when comparing their cars to the high price examples which have been for sale during the winter.
In the end, the value of anything is determined by what someone is willing to pay for it. The question is whether sellers are actually serious and “willing” to part with their cars, or just fishing for an outrageous $ price.
As a potential buyer, this has me scratching my head. I can’t really complain as this is the classic “invisible hand” of free market capitalism. May as well argue with the law of gravity.
Thankfully we enthusiasts have The Samba to hash these questions out. |
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sb001
Samba Member
Joined: May 19, 2011
Posts: 10406
Location: NW Arkansas
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| Posted: Fri May 04, 2018 8:23 pm Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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I spoke in jest- I would not think I could quite fetch 5 figures for this car at least not in my area, esp. being an autostick. Maybe if someone was more concerned with having all paperwork and knowing the entire history of the car than being an autostick or the engine having been replaced... not sure there's someone out there like that. But I certainly appreciate zundfolge's glass half full assessment!
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I'm the humblest guy on this board.
1969 autostick sedan, family owned since new
1600 SP engine
Solex 30 PICT 3 carburetor
Bosch 113905205AE autostick distributor |
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Onceler
Samba Member
Joined: May 28, 2010
Posts: 1647
Location: Indiana
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| Posted: Fri May 04, 2018 8:52 pm Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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Might wanna up your insurance 
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1972 Karmann Ghia |
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Onceler
Samba Member
Joined: May 28, 2010
Posts: 1647
Location: Indiana
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| Posted: Fri May 04, 2018 8:56 pm Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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I just hope the flippers don't inflate the price of rusted out hulks, that's my sweet spot
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1972 Karmann Ghia |
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dualbay
Samba Member
Joined: March 21, 2018
Posts: 108
Location: USA
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| Posted: Fri May 11, 2018 7:12 am Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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| Every time I watch Jay Lenos Garage their car appreciation segment seems to show around a 50-100% increase on most EVERYTHING within the last 5-years; the last show all three appreciated about 50% in 5-years - you know what else appreciated roughly 50% in the last 5-years? The equity market, in some places the real estate market, etc. It's all tied together, just a giant bubble. |
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mukluk
Samba Member
Joined: October 18, 2012
Posts: 7028
Location: Clyde, TX
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| Posted: Fri May 11, 2018 3:51 pm Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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| Onceler wrote: |
| I just hope the flippers don't inflate the price of rusted out hulks, that's my sweet spot |
Too late. Seems like even an engineless rusty heap is often priced the same as a complete driving car from ten years ago.
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1960 Ragtop w/Semaphores "Inga" |
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iowegian
Samba Curmudgeon
Joined: February 16, 2005
Posts: 9830
Location: Somewhere between Dubuque and Keokuk
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| Posted: Fri May 11, 2018 7:19 pm Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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| Zundfolge1432 wrote: |
| sb001 wrote: |
| wcfvw69 wrote: |
I'm also firmly in the camp that original, unmolested, rust free VW's are going to be leading the pack in rising prices. With the extraordinary costs of body work/paint and other restoration costs, these VW's will continue to demand the highest price point. |
Sweet, this is what I wanted to hear -- and mine's a one family owner as well, with all the original paperwork. I'm going to ask $20k!! |
I think you are saying this in jest... but to those reading this I’ve seen this car and it could well bring a nice sum of money because of condition and history. |
So, Zundie, what is the value of "provenance"? Does it add hard dollars to the actual selling price compared to a car in similar condition that has had numerous owners who did not keep a paper trail? Let us hypothetically assign a $10K price to that other car. Is Steve's worth 25% more?-----50%? Or does it merely make for a quicker sale? Or make no difference at all?
I am not trying to be argumentative here------I have a '66 Beetle that had one owner prior to me that drove it for nearly 40 years and saved paperwork from the day it drove away from Wolfsburg. I am not sure how much insurance I should have on it. (my "restored" Ghia, on the other hand, is probably just depreciating as it ages.  ) |
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TDCTDI
Samba Advocatus Diaboli
Joined: August 31, 2013
Posts: 12856
Location: North Carolina
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| Posted: Sat May 12, 2018 4:28 am Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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| iowegian wrote: |
what is the value of "provenance"? Does it add hard dollars to the actual selling price compared to a car in similar condition that has had numerous owners who did not keep a paper trail? Let us hypothetically assign a $10K price to that other car. Is Steve's worth 25% more?-----50%? |
It depends on how famous the previous owners were. If some or all the receipts had “Elvis Presley” on them & it could be proven then it could add 5-10 times the value, for a normal schlub & their lineage, probably not much.
_________________
Everybody born before 1975 has a story, good, bad, or indifferent, about a VW.
GOFUNDYOURSELF, quit asking everyone to do it for you!
An air cooled VW will make you a hoarder.
Do something, anything, to your project every day, and you will eventually complete it. |
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Mos6502
Samba Member
Joined: December 30, 2015
Posts: 725
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| Posted: Mon May 14, 2018 1:19 am Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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| crankbait09 wrote: |
| Not that the current prices of the classic beetles will stop me from purchasing one........but does anyone see the selling prices for the classic beetles ever dropping? Sure if we have an economy implosion again, they may. But I can only imagine they will keep going up and up as each year goes by. |
Yes. Prices will drop. Beetle prices though will likely not fluctuate that much. I feel like bus prices are going to plunge in the future after the people who're nostalgic for them and speculators who prey on them all get too old to drive and die off. Then you'll be left with hardcore collectors who don't want slammed buses that drive and ride like crap or have had extra windows cut into them. 
Collectibles, as a general rule are bad investments. Because collectors are fickle. And with the internet the fickleness has increased exponentially. I've watched particular items explode in value due to internet hype - prices get ridiculous, and sometimes stay ridiculous for a few years, but eventually the fad ends and prices fall as everybody moves on to the next thing, or enough people realize what they bought didn't live up to the hype. This is particularly true for things that are unusual, but not quite rare. If it's too rare, the fad-driven demand dies off because those people get bored with looking. If it's too easy to find the demand dies off because there's no snob appeal, or because enough people get their hands on the thing and realize it's nothing special. It's the items in between that are most susceptible to hype-driven prices.
I've been collecting cameras for decades, and once the internet came around, it only took a few forum threads or blog posts to start prices spiraling uncontrollably upwards on certain arcane items. And then it was just a matter of watching and seeing how long it would last. A few months? A few years? I learned the hard way, not to put any of my rarest items on ebay - the internet masses wouldn't look for and find them, knowing nothing about them. I made a lot of money selling weird/unusual junk instead - stuff blogs had called "rare" but which wasn't really rare at all. |
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Busstom
Samba Member
Joined: November 23, 2014
Posts: 3853
Location: San Jose, CA
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| Posted: Tue May 15, 2018 10:53 pm Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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| ^^^ I agree. ^^^ |
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iowegian
Samba Curmudgeon
Joined: February 16, 2005
Posts: 9830
Location: Somewhere between Dubuque and Keokuk
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| Posted: Sat May 19, 2018 1:07 pm Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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| Onceler wrote: |
| Might wanna up your insurance |
Sage advice.
I just called Hagerty a few minutes ago and increased the coverage from 10K to 15 on my '66 Beetle. They did it with no questions asked. |
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Zundfolge1432
Samba Member
Joined: June 13, 2004
Posts: 12468
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| Posted: Sat May 19, 2018 1:21 pm Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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| iowegian wrote: |
| Zundfolge1432 wrote: |
| sb001 wrote: |
| wcfvw69 wrote: |
I'm also firmly in the camp that original, unmolested, rust free VW's are going to be leading the pack in rising prices. With the extraordinary costs of body work/paint and other restoration costs, these VW's will continue to demand the highest price point. |
Sweet, this is what I wanted to hear -- and mine's a one family owner as well, with all the original paperwork. I'm going to ask $20k!! |
I think you are saying this in jest... but to those reading this I’ve seen this car and it could well bring a nice sum of money because of condition and history. |
So, Zundie, what is the value of "provenance"? Does it add hard dollars to the actual selling price compared to a car in similar condition that has had numerous owners who did not keep a paper trail? Let us hypothetically assign a $10K price to that other car. Is Steve's worth 25% more?-----50%? Or does it merely make for a quicker sale? Or make no difference at all?
I am not trying to be argumentative here------I have a '66 Beetle that had one owner prior to me that drove it for nearly 40 years and saved paperwork from the day it drove away from Wolfsburg. I am not sure how much insurance I should have on it. (my "restored" Ghia, on the other hand, is probably just depreciating as it ages. ) |
That’s a good question in the world of newer used cars those with a service history, low miles and known to be accident free can draw a small premium. As they age it becomes more important but how much is open to interpretation. I would value it highly but that’s just my opinion others may not care. When anything comes to market it seems it’s all about condition and if it has a verifiable story that takes it up a notch but it’s hard to say how much.
I keep records much like a log book for aircraft on all my cars and noticed at trade time if it went through a dealership they throw it all away, but their reasoning is privacy they can’t sell stuff with someone’s personal info all over it.maybe the correct answer is if seller and buyer agree in value of documentation then it’s real if one disagrees all bets are off. |
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Jonathan Thomas
Samba Member
Joined: August 21, 2016
Posts: 9
Location: Norcal
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| Posted: Mon May 21, 2018 8:16 pm Post subject: Re: will prices drop? |
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| Those people that print all the money, well, you know, their friends all seem to have a boatload of money too. Wonder why that is? Then, prices of everything always goes up, and they can afford anything they want. Wish I could be friends with those guys that print all the money. I have to work for it. Bummer. |
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