Is it just me, or is the bubble bursting?

[iliketowalk]

It had to happen at some point, but in the last 3-6 months I've been pretty blown away by the increase in supply and the much more reasonable asking prices.

Do we think this is a settling and leveling off of prices, or is this officially the beginning of a downward slide much lower back to where we were 5-10 years ago?

If I had to guess I would say that as the prices started to get closer to these brand new vans (Promaster, Transit, Sprinter) the value proposition got harder to justify. You get a warranty, A/C, airbags, etc.

Curious what you guys think?
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1986 Weekender "Birch"

[otiswesty]

Brand new Mercedes Metris Van with 0 miles, $30K
Pop top full camper conversion $24K
cheaper options available as well

do the math
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1978 Sage Green P22 Westfalia
1989 T3 Syncro Single cab

Just a regular guy

[iliketowalk]

Edit: It's hard to tell if "do the math" is you saying that you think it's obvious why Vanagon prices are falling, or if you're just a VanFanBoy like the rest of us?

$54k for a brand new vehicle with a warranty, modern safety features, conveniences, economy and power.

2WD Westy in good in condition 100-150k miles, 30 years old, $20k
Engine conversion $15-20k
Various other refreshing $5k
So we're at $40-45k somewhat conservatively

Warranty? None
Modern safety features? None
Economy? Not good
Power? Ok, but probably still less than the Metris has stock

So that extra $10k is a pretty small gap to close when you consider what you're giving up.

I voted with my wallet and have two Vanagons - but it's somewhat easy to see how people that want to go use a van and have a somewhat predictable cost of ownership could see that the Vanagon has some disadvantages.

The market has softened and yet #vanlife is more popular than ever and RV sales have been WAY up. So... Why aren't prices continuing to climb?
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1986 Weekender "Birch"

[Abscate]

#vanlife is an alternative internet reality, that’s why.
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.ssS!

[markswagen]

Prices here are still on the rise, there are several westies listed in the mid $30k 2wd, not syncro westies.
Tin tops also, up in the $8k to $15k range.
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markswagen {mobile mechanic} san diego area all early VW's cared for.

619 201 0310

[dobryan]

Why do you think there is a bubble?
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Dave O
'87 Westy w/ 2002 Subaru EJ25 and Peloquin TBD

"To travel hopefully is a better thing than to arrive." Robert Louis Stevenson

MD>Canada>AK>WA>OR>CA>AZ>UT>WY>SD
https://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=620646

Building a bus for travel in Europe (euroBus)
https://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=695371

The Western Syncro build
https://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=746794

[Ride-Fly]

I agree that prices seemed to have leveled off, and even come back down somewhat. I posted a similar topic for FJ40s on another forum and got a concensus that most people felt prices for those rigs have come down from a peak a few years ago.

What I’ve been noticing is that folks seem to be asking a high price for their vans but those stay unsold for months. This seems to be true even for syncros.

[Gauche1968]

[Ahwahnee]

Pretty typical in many markets for a unique item (Westies, Beanie Babies, llamas, etc.).

Once everybody who really wanted a llama has one the incremental demand keeps prices under control.

[mikemtnbike]

A bubble bursting would be the bottom dropping out of a market. I do not see that happening.

What could maybe be happening is more of a correction- a natural process in any commodity exchange where prices go up which in turn actually drives up demand/price, but eventually prices settle back a little bit as demand wanes.

Of course, what's not a natural part of our tiny little corner of capitalism is that supply cannot increase, only diminish. So I do not think there will ever be an actual collapse.
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1991 Vanagon GL 2.1 AT Westfauxlia. "Frankie" Totaled https://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=764510&highlight=carnage
1995 Eurovan Camper "Marzivan"
2020 GTI SE manual

[Pinetops]

Average asking price on anything used is going to be more than actual selling prices. The split bus market corrected itself and prices dropped in the past couple of years but they still command high $. I imagine that vanagons will go up and down in value but still command good money for years to come. If you don't get in as an investment, you have nothing to worry about either way.

It is a little odd that while you would think this is peak vanagon buying season, the prices seem to be dropping now.
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"A rolling bus gathers no rust."

[MarkWard]

I still seem plenty of overpriced turds out there. I don't really watch the high price ones. Always looking for the diamond in the rough.
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☮️

[regis101]

I’ve noticed reduced prices in my area. Makes me read between the lines that much more. What I call a builder is still a 5k-10k buy in.

Market correction is all. Ebb and flow
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Peace, Regis

[raoul mitgong]

[Dickz]

Maybe it was the ego inducing excitement of a live auction, or alcohol induced euphoria, or just 2 bidders who had to have it, but a 1979 Westy sold for $88K at the Mecum auction over the weekend. Not sure what, if anything that says about the market.

[Abscate]

[pdm777]

Bubble? not so much.

I get the same thing every time I go out.
"Are you selling your Van?" thumbs up.

IMHO, the later 87-91 full campers are unique vehicles
that serve the need well for a economical small RV,
and they're not making anymore.

Just wait till gas prices get up to $5 gallon, then the
20mpg Westy will be acknowledged.

Like the porsche air cooled market, there are a LOT
of turds being offered for sale. The good ones still
command good prices, the rusty POS ones are along
for the ride.

BIG factor in resale prices, the 20-30 yr olds just don't believe
in turning a wrench or learning how to maintain and service.
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1990 Westy Full Camper

[iliketowalk]

Good thread so far -- thanks for all the insights and replies!

I say bubble somewhat provocatively, but I have some actual data points. We bought our 84 Westy about 7 years ago, for $5400 and I would guess the same van in the same condition last year would've gone for over $10k (based on lots of craigslist searches, etc). Now it seems like it would be about a $7-9k van which represents a pretty significant decrease from the all time high.

This is the first time in the last 5-7 years (in my opinion) that the vans are cheaper than they were 12 months prior, and with more and more "new vans" and alternatives it's hard to believe that we haven't had our heyday and now we're coming back down to earth.

I love these vans, but there are a helluva lot more of them than most other classics.

Long story short, it seems like a bit more of a buyers market at the moment which is great if you're looking to pick up (another) van. If you've been holding on to it over winter hoping to maximize profit, you may be disappointed compared to prior years.
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1986 Weekender "Birch"

[Mikesarge]

[jimf909]

Fun thread.

I always suggest that the starry-eyed folks shopping for vans look beyond Vanagons to the super-practical domestic or Sptinter vans. The Vanagon is an amazing rig (best space efficiency ever, fun turning radius, decent ground clearance, etc.) but it’s not a good match for many. Of the 10 or so folks I’ve spent time discussing camping rig choices with over the past two years there’s one guy who seems like a good match: he’s easy-going (wouldn’t be perturbed with a change in plans) and he owns and flies old airplanes, i.e. maintenance $ for a van pale in comparison and he appreciates old stuff. I suggested that the rest really consider something else.

There are still plenty of Vanagon buyers, just as there are buyers for (stupid & boring) muscle cars (my opinion, YMMV), classic motorcycles, etc.

For now, I really don’t care. A few years back I decided to build another Vanagon to last for 5-7 or more years so I’m not selling. This one may be one that I keep forever like the ‘88 motorcycle I bought new and kept.

Flippers just need to be aware of realistic selling prices.

Perhaps this is why GW got out of the business of flipping Vanagons? They saw sales velocity and prices flatten or decline.
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- Jim