NADA values, vs. Reality

[Tim Donahoe]

A recent thread mentioned the difficulty a seller had trying to sell his Bug. This got me to thinking.

I’ve seen hundreds of Bugs for sale in the Samba Classifieds, ranging in asking price from a few hundred dollars to $39,000. Most were in the four to six thousand range.

The thing is, all of these were asking prices. There was never any subsequent finish to the ads, stating what the cars actually sold for. So, who really knows how to price their cars?

So, I checked with NADA, and my car (as an example; I’m not selling it) was listed anywhere from $9200 (average selling price) to $22,900. I can only assume the higher price was of a completely stock showroom-quality-reconstruction, which included every nut and bolt. Mine, however, is pretty nice, but it’s certainly no complete pan-off restoration.

Regardless, the average NADA selling price of a 1974 Super Beetle is $9200.

Really?

How does NADA come up with such figures. Do they just pull the numbers out of their butts? NADA is a well-known auto entity, but are they really quoting reality? If not, I don’t understand why they’d make up prices. It not as though they’d get anything from lying about it.

What do you think?

Tim
_________________
Let's do the Time Warp again!

Richard O'Brien

[windfish]

[Tom K.]

Ebay lists sold vehicles. Most (80% ish) listed for sale do not sell. But for those that do sell - you can see the sales price.
_________________
'91 Vanagon Westfalia
'70 Beetle Convertible
'71 Super Beetle Semi-Automatic: https://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=714131&highlight=
'65 Ghia: https://www.thesamba.com/vw/forum/viewtopic.php?t=762478&highlight=

[[email protected]]

Try out a one year subscription to Sports Car Market. They do a good job of tracking trends/sales of vehicles from many different auction houses. Vehicles range from low mileage originals, to concours restored, to barn finds. It will definitely open your eyes what is getting paid for certain vehicles.

One net site has listings of sold 79 Convertibles from $9,350-$49,500, and an average sale of $23,513 from 10 cars so far in 2019.

[Jimbug57]

I just bought a vehicle less than a month ago on The Samba. The transaction went perfectly. The asking price for this 73 Super was $2500.00; I offered $1900.00 and he accepted.

It's in excellent condition with many new parts, including front end, starter, battery, tires, and a bunch of other stuff. The interior is about 80% new also, including a new headliner and carpet.

BTW, I think the PO got divorced and lost his house. He gave me a motor stand, several bins of parts that include a good looking vintage 009 and a new looking Bocar 34PICT-3. There's all kinds of new parts in bags in the bins like L&R door seals, etc. Oh yeah, also gave me the original stock wheels and hubcaps.

I must have been a good boy lately because the Vdub Gods are smiling at me.

_________________
Repeat after me "I am smarter than metal!"

[grandpa red]

You can price your car by looking at listed prices here craigslist auto traderi etc-.
Then come up with a price and cast it out into the ocean and wait for a bite.
_________________
'72 Beetle

[dirtkeeper]

[TDCTDI]

[boundstaffpress]

I like to drive classic cars, and don't mind doing some fixing. I searched at least 5 years for a sub $2k clean VW beetle within a reasonable distance. I pursued 5-10 cars that sold before I could get there that met my criteria. Drivable Beetles are selling for less than $3k. These are not show cars and may need significant attention, but they were being driven, and being sold. This year I bought a nearly rust free 1973 Super Beetle that needed brake, suspension, and interior work. When I get those things taken care of, I will have invested around $2.5k. It will not be a show car, but I won't worry about sending my daughter to park it in the Walmart parking lot.
In all my searching, I never paid much attention to dealers selling classic cars. They have too much tied up in overhead, and know very little of the history of a particular car. Their numbers are also inflated to account for trade in values. NADA values based on Dealer listings are simply not an accurate measure of classic car prices. Ebay sold prices are a good start. Making offers on Craigslist cars is a better way to gauge the market.
My $.02
_________________
Justin

Building a 73 Super Beetle with my kids.

[chicagovw]

Year 2009 BMW X3 100K miles ,perfect body,paint,leather,air bags,4wd,fast,reliable, etc...$4k

Dirtkeeper, that BMW has air bags and leather but reliable...most likely not at all. There is a reason that older European high end luxury cars (BMW, Range Rover, Mercedes, etc) have abysmal resale. Cars like that are $4,000 and their owners are begging folks to take them off of their hands for a reason. BMWs are very nice cars until they age, at which point they become an endless money pit. Electrical, suspension, transmission, and engine failures are among their many issues. I have had 3 friends who have owned BMWs in recent years and they loved them until right around 100K miles-two of them lost engines on them, and the third had to constantly pour money into it. He finally tapped out and got rid of it. VWs only get this way when previous owners or shops do half assed repairs. Otherwise, yes they are slow and unsafe by todays standards (as are practically every car from the 1970s), but they are well made and reliable machines.

TDCTDI, the Bug you got looks to need a lot of work, and no offense, is not what is considered to be in "excellent" condition. If you were to drop it off at a shop and have a nut and bolt restoration done, I would bet that, at least around here, you would be talking $40,000 or better. So all of a sudden, paying $20,000 for one that is well and truly done and done well seems like a bargain. Again, nothing against you or your car, this is just my opinion and if you are happy with it, fantastic! I paid $1.00 to my brother for his 73 Super Beetle, and I am pretty sure he got the better end-but I knew that going in, I would never recoup what I would invest in getting the car done.


Prices are all over the place with these cars because the cars and owners are all over the place. If you do a custom job, you have to hope to find someone who agrees with your taste enough to pay for it. There are some truly cobbled together or beat down cars that owners get emotionally attached to so they ask a price that is way to high given the condition. And at the other end, you may find someone going through a divorce, sending kids to college, or have been strung along by a restoration shop that is doing shoddy work or taking entirely too long to do the job, so you may be able to get a better deal.

What something is worth will come down to condition, style, and what someone is willing to pay. Most of these cars were used up, beat up, and fixed up poorly at some point, so of course nice, low mileage well maintained examples will almost always be worth the most.

[chicagovw]

Year 2009 BMW X3 100K miles ,perfect body,paint,leather,air bags,4wd,fast,reliable, etc...$4k

Dirtkeeper, that BMW has air bags and leather but reliable...most likely not at all. There is a reason that older European high end luxury cars (BMW, Range Rover, Mercedes, etc) have abysmal resale. Cars like that are $4,000 and their owners are begging folks to take them off of their hands for a reason. BMWs are very nice cars until they age, at which point they become an endless money pit. Electrical, suspension, transmission, and engine failures are among their many issues. I have had 3 friends who have owned BMWs in recent years and they loved them until right around 100K miles-two of them lost engines on them, and the third had to constantly pour money into it. He finally tapped out and got rid of it. VWs only get this way when previous owners or shops do half assed repairs. Otherwise, yes they are slow and unsafe by todays standards (as are practically every car from the 1970s), but they are well made and reliable machines.

TDCTDI, the Bug you got looks to need a lot of work, and no offense, is not what is considered to be in "excellent" condition. If you were to drop it off at a shop and have a nut and bolt restoration done, I would bet that, at least around here, you would be talking $40,000 or better. So all of a sudden, paying $20,000 for one that is well and truly done and done well seems like a bargain. Again, nothing against you or your car, this is just my opinion and if you are happy with it, fantastic! I paid $1.00 to my brother for his 73 Super Beetle, and I am pretty sure he got the better end-but I knew that going in, I would never recoup what I would invest in getting the car done.


Prices are all over the place with these cars because the cars and owners are all over the place. If you do a custom job, you have to hope to find someone who agrees with your taste enough to pay for it. There are some truly cobbled together or beat down cars that owners get emotionally attached to so they ask a price that is way to high given the condition. And at the other end, you may find someone going through a divorce, sending kids to college, or have been strung along by a restoration shop that is doing shoddy work or taking entirely too long to do the job, so you may be able to get a better deal.

What something is worth will come down to condition, style, and what someone is willing to pay. Most of these cars were used up, beat up, and fixed up poorly at some point, so of course nice, low mileage well maintained examples will almost always be worth the most.

[TDCTDI]

[TDCTDI]

The one that chaps my ass is the douchebags that call up & tell me that NADA/KBB says that the car that I have for sale is $$$$ less than I have posted a car for. I tell them to go buy it from NADA/KBB & they usually come back with "But they don't sell cars.", to which my typical reply is "Then why do you expect me to allow them to dictate my price?".
_________________
Everybody born before 1975 has a story, good, bad, or indifferent, about a VW.


GOFUNDYOURSELF, quit asking everyone to do it for you!


An air cooled VW will make you a hoarder.


Do something, anything, to your project every day, and you will eventually complete it.

[dirtkeeper]

[Tim Donahoe]

Safety, economy, comfort? Too funny. I don’t know anyone who owns a bug for any of those reasons. And reliability. That’s a matter of how much time and money you’re willing to put into a Bug. Like any other car, I guess.

I own a Bug because it has several attributes that newer-high mileage cars don’t seem to maintain as well as the years pass—those newer high-mileage cars, that is, with their superior comfort, economy, and comfort.

A Bug (or a bus, for that matter) has a smile factor that hangs with it. It also has a good-memory factor that never fades. It reminds strangers of old memories they’re all too willing to share—when you’re filling up at the gas station, or getting into your Bug in the grocery store parking lot, or wherever you happen to stop awhile.

No other car seems to spark as many memories, and (mostly unsolicited) tales of old times.

And the smile factor is just a common given.

For the most part, our Bugs are no longer daily drivers. They’re just little time machines that we drive from time to time ... and have a little fun while doing it.

Tim
_________________
Let's do the Time Warp again!

Richard O'Brien

[AlmostHeavenWV_VW]

When it comes to classics, I much prefer the printed 'price guides' which are available.

I believe the one I picked up and used for reference when I was buying my bug was called "Auto Roundup"

These folks use actual sales(IIRC) and use a ratings system of 1-6, where the number designates a particular description of the condition of the car.

Descriptions used include common terms which can be applied to any classic vehicle such as "10-footer" "concours" "professional restoration" "Older restortation" "ameteur restoration" "Daily driver" "every part needs full restoration" etc etc

Those price guides are much more stable in their valuations vs NADA/KBB and actually seemed to accurately represent the prices I saw when I was shopping.

A "10 footer, daily driver" ~$4500.
_________________
1973 Standard Beetle
1600DP AK case
Solex 34PICT3 Carb
Bosch DVDA 205AJ Distributor

[Mos6502]

[dirtkeeper]

[chicagovw]

Economy and reliability were indeed two of the largest reasons the original VW found so many buyers back when they were new. Compared to a modern car, they may not get the best mileage compared to other economy cars (but the 26 or so I averaged with my last stock Beetle was pretty decent and is about what I get with my 2016 GTI).

A VWs fuel economy, safety, etc were competitive even at the end of their US Sales compared to its competition. Which says a lot considering its basic design was ancient even then. And they are still reliable and durable. Anyone having an issue in those two areas has either a worn out beater, or one that is not properly serviced. My personal opinion is that the comfort level in them is fine, and I would go as far as saying that the driving position is pretty much perfect. I have driven some very very long distances in them and would do so again without hesitation.

Comparing any vintage car to a modern car makes no sense really. The fastest Ferrari of the 1970s would get destroyed by my GTI, or pretty much any Honda, Kia, Chevy, etc. on the market, in terms of performance. The safest Volvo from the 1980s would compare poorly to any average compact or mid size car on the market today. The most luxurious Rolls Royce of the 1970s has none of the tech we expect from even an average run of the mill car today.
This does not mean that any of them are bad, just that technology improves things. The VW is still fundamentally a good car, has a lot of personality, and still has features that make it a car that one can easliy use on a regular and even daily basis as long as it is in truly good condition and that you do realize it is not going to have the tech or safety of something new.


Dirtkeeper, I am glad you have had good luck with the BMWs. As I said, I have several friends that have owned them and loved them until they hit that 100K mark at which point they were a disaster. It is not exclusive to BMWs, as I have had friends who loved their Range Rovers until the warranty ran out, and when they had to take a brutal resale hit at trade in time. Mercedes also sufferes from the unreliablity/awful resale vale/high repair cost as well.

[JonRich55]

I wonder if the Insurance companies use that book to determine value when pricing the insurance costs? It would make sense that it may be higher than what you could sell the car for as it would increase the rates for an older car.