Where do you see the Bus Scene heading in the next 10 years?

[Manfred58sc]

I do think there has been a shift away from websites to social media platforms ( 1st wave versus 2nd wave). The next evolution will be some sort of crypto-currency platform that seamlessly combines information,social media, and exchange. And yes everyone is staring blankly into their phones. I was at the London airport last year with about 3000 people in the waiting area at Heathrow, I was the ONLY person not staring into the abyss.

Bus prices will hold steady at the very least as they transition from transportation to art.
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[Who.Me?]

[marklaken]

[VintageDreamz]

WOW! And just like that, 20 years have gone by since we were making predictions on where the Bus Scene was headed. It doesn't seem like that long ago. I for one am glad I still own buses and grateful for the people I have met along the way. Here's to another 20 years behind that big ol' steering wheel.
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[Don66bus]

Really interesting reading all those comments from 2004 about where buses and bus prices were going. None of them got it exactly right. People even mentioned the "new" bus that VW was going to release - 20 years later and you still can't buy them yet in Canada. Crazy stuff ....

[KTPhil]

Back to the original topic...

Once the darling of the Barrett-Jackson crowd, 21/23 window splitties are no longer climbing in value. Don't get me wrong, I'd love one, but the shine in the general public's eye is fading. Yesterday's news.

Among VW people, I see two trends, both fed by stratospheric 21/23 pricing:
1) Bays are commanding good prices, and will continue to rise. Easier entry (financially) and they still have the "cute/vintage" factor. And there are more to choose from, since they haven't been picked as clean.
2) Panel vans. So from "lots of windows" to "minimum windows"! Commercial vans, especially with company logos on them, are all the rage. It gives some respectability to "patina" buses that in many cases are just lazy owners or those that figured the investment in shiny doesn't pay back.
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Retired:
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'65 Beetle (x2)
'65 Bus
'71 Squareback

[Lind]

[Braukuche]

One thing that’s changed is you go to most VW shows in So Cal and there are more buses than anything else other than Beetles.
Age demographic has changed, everyone with a bus seems to be getting long in the tooth. I seldom see anyone under 30 with a bus.
Hardly anyone daily drives them anymore. It’s an occasion when I even see a bay on the road let alone a split. But to be fair that’s even true with Beetles now days. Doesn’t bode well for the future. If the younger set never sees them how are they going to get infected with the air cooled disease?
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Retirement is here!
1956 Ghia
1959 SO-23 Westfalia
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1960 Baja Bug
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1963 356 B coupe
1963 Notchback
1967 21 window less rusty now

[von_hansel]

[srfndoc]

[NUTSFORBUSES]

"the Bus Scene" 2024
I've driven them since 1976, love them.
As far as the "scene", I do not care even a little as long as I can drive it / mine.
The "club" scene is fun once and a while, but has changed a lot. Too many guys judging the Buses or Bugs to their acceptance who never drove one back in the 70's when it was just "the way". I was never a "Hippie" and I hate that reference. Hippies started in Germany, not in So cal, or filthy Frisco. I used to load-up the Bus and go to a Petty-Stixx-Trower-Zep concert only because we had the room and $10 for gas. Never worried about some tweaker stealing it. We would load up 5 or 6 surf boards and spend the weekend at the beach where we could actually park w/o being harassed! The wealthy will always buy the bondo coated "mint" Bus for big dollars, but I like to see the side ripples from the factory-as it was born. The stories we created back then are gone, but the feel of the Bus is still there and I love it. Could careless what they are worth, or not, make it your own, just DON'T put batteries into our babies! That is just blasphemy, and So Not Green, and should be a Life sentence. I'm currently building a Gender Neutral Bus
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[rudygetz]

[MrPolak]

The aircooled VWs have a lot of young fans. They don't know what they're looking at, but they love them. Make it a point to drive your bus more often and plant more seeds.

[KTPhil]

[Malokin Martin]

It’s hard to distinguish between the crowd at a Jimmy Buffett concert and a crowd at the local aircooled show

Some of the prices on the first page bus classifieds are pretty interesting.

Hopefully this brings out the tsunami of young gearheads in the scene I keep hearing about

[Braukuche]

[Big Bill]

I have been into the "VW scene" since 1976 or 77. I didnt get a bus until maybe 1988, it was so much fun back then, you could go to a swap meet and get most of the stuff you needed to get a bus running and looking good for decent prices. Today is a different story prices are really very high on early bus parts, and buses themselves. Anyway it is a different game today no one usually builds their own bus and cant keep it running without taking it to someone else for repairs, I have met many people over the years that I still see at shows and can call friends. It has been a fun ride. This is a shot of the last bus I owned, I dont think I could bring myself to pay the price of one in todays market, I will probably go back and look for a 60s bug.

[KTPhil]

[Erik G]

KTPhil wrote:

Back to the original topic... Once the darling of the Barrett-Jackson crowd, 21/23 window splitties are no longer climbing in value. Don't get me wrong, I'd love one, but the shine in the general public's eye is fading. Yesterday's news. Among VW people, I see two trends, both fed by stratospheric 21/23 pricing: 1) Bays are commanding good prices, and will continue to rise. Easier entry (financially) and they still have the "cute/vintage" factor. And there are more to choose from, since they haven't been picked as clean. 2) Panel vans. So from "lots of windows" to "minimum windows"! Commercial vans, especially with company logos on them, are all the rage. It gives some respectability to "patina" buses that in many cases are just lazy owners or those that figured the investment in shiny doesn't pay back.

I don't agree with your #2 - they continue to be bottom feeder buses. Not sure where you are seeing that they are all the rage or getting big $$$ for them. Sure we know there were a few on BAT with a big Porsche logo that went higher than they probably should have, but those are outliers

[Blue Baron]

Because the old bus is so iconic, I run into a lot of young people who wax poetic about wanting to buy an old bus and wander carefree across the country. I tell the parents you better have them spend some time behind the wheel first, because the truth is it's like driving a small Mack truck that's a lightweight box with a tiny engine in back, and nothing like driving a Prius. I shatter their dreams as I putter away!

Also, what has cooled the 21- and 23-bus market has been the influx of Brazilian conversions. The hardcores still want the German buses, but the general collector is content with the Brazilian knock-offs, which oftentimes fetch more money because they are more attractively painted and detailed!

I'm also with KT on panel vans. I'm biased, but people dig them, and they're different from the usual bus, mostly because each one has a unique history, and so many were used in different businesses. Plus, with the chicken war and just plain being used up, there are not many decent ones left.

What I see getting hot in the next 10 years is not buses, but stock Beetles from 1961 to 1970. Joke about fat chicks all you want, but you'll wish you had stashed a few away.
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